CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/06/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064599
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 22, 1952

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SECURI INFORMATION
22 June 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Inte1ligerwee4 ReviEwart: 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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� SECURI INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Venezuela breaks relations with Czechoslovakia (page 3).
2. Venezuela reportedly will give no further basis for Soviet complaints
(page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Militant Moslem organization plans outbreaks in Indonesia (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan intends to terminate Kashmir negotiations by 28 June
(page 4).
NEAR EAST AFRICA
5. British allegedly foment revolt among the tribes in southern Iran
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Pinay conciliates Gaullist dissidents on foreign policy (page 6).
LA TIN AMERICA
7. Agrarian reform law may cause revolution in Guatemala (page 6).
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GENERAL
L Venezuela breaks relations with Czechoslovakia:
Venezuela broke diplomatic relations with
Czechoslovakia on 20 June after the Czech
Minister presented a Soviet note which the
Venezuelan Foreign Ministry considered
unacceptable.
Comment: The break with Czechoslovakia
occurred within a week of the Venezuelan rupture with the USSR. In
both cases, Venezuela apparently seized an opportune moment to make
a break. There are no other Orbit diplomatic missions in Venezuela.
Czech diplomatic missions in Latin America
have been active in gathering intelligence and in promoting trade trans-
actions, both legal and illegal, designed to alleviate the "dollar shortage
in Czechoslovakia.
2. Venezuela reportedly will give no further basis for Soviet complaints:
3.3(h)(2)
In an interview with the Venezuelan Foreign 3.3(h)(2)
Minister, Ambassador Warren received
the impression that the Venezuelan Govern-
ment is now fully aware of the possible
international repercussions of its treatment of Soviet Embassy personnel.
The Foreign Minister asked for suggestions
on how to handle the departure of the Russians most courteously and
indicated that, following their departure, he would counter T.ASS accusa-
tions with a communique stressing the courtesies extended.
Ambassador Warren states that the report
on the incident by the International Red Cross representative is favor-
able to Venezuela.
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FAR EAST
3. Militant Moslem organization plans outbreaks in Indonesia: 3.3(h)(2)
the Darul Islam, a fanatic Moslem
organization, plans to create disturbances in
the cities of West Java, including Djakarta,
ur ng the Moslem New Year holiday, 22-24 June. Authorities are
taking precautions to prevent serious trouble.
Comment: The Darul Islam is a well-armed
organization with possibly 10,000 members which is seeking to establish
a theocratic state in Java.
While government forces will probably be able
to suppress any Darul Islam outbreaks in the West Java cities, this
report demonstrates the continuation of insecure conditions in Indonesia,
which are seriously hampering the development of the country's economy
and reducing popular confidence in the government.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan intends to terminate Kashmir negotiations by 28 June:
Pakistan's Chief UN delegate, Bokhari, in-
formed American delegates in New York on
19 Tune that Pakistan would break off the
Kashmir discussions by 28 June. He added
ince represen ative Graham has made no proposals of his
own, the Security Council should now concern itself with this question.
According to Bokhari, Pakistan has in the
past acquiesced to proposals only to have India reject them. Pakistan
would in the future, therefore, require prior agreement by India
befclre it would consider any new proposals.
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Comment: It is unlikely that Pakistan intends
to break off all further discussion or to take steps leading to military
action. It appears that Pakistan wants India to be forced into a more
conciliatory position on compromise either by the Security Council or
by the United States and Great Britain.
Discussions in the Security Council might
lead to further complications while the USSR has the chair this month.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
British allegedly foment revolt among the tribes in southern Iran:
British intrigue among the tribes in the oil-
rich province of Fars in southern Iran has
increased greatly in recent months,
Pro-British landlords in the area have reportedly been advocating semi-
autonomy for the province. The Iranian army, allegedly at British
instigation, has been alienating the loyalty of local chiefs from the
Qashqai leaders. The British are lining up tribal support throughout
southwest Iran.
Some of the tribal leaders undoubtedly have
attempted to enlist British and Iranian army support to improve their
position vis-a-vis the top Qashqal leaders who are strong supporters
of Mossadeq.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. Pinay conciliates Gaullist dissidents on foreign policy:
The American Embassy in Paris believes 3.3(h)(2)
that the rapprochement between the French
Government coalition and the Gaullist dissi-
dents has made further progress and is already
influencing French tore ign policy.
In recent talks held by Premier Pinay and
Defense Minister Pleven with Gaullists who are cooperating with the
government, the Premier played down the European Defense Community
treaty as an obstacle to their cooperation. In subsequent debates this
group showed "remarkable" restraint toward the treaty. The Embassy
concludes that, as a concession, the government will continue to post-
pone scheduling parliamentary debate on the treaty's ratification.
Comment: This development reduces the
possibility that De Gaulle can force the fall of the government later this
year on foreign policy issues.
On the other hand, the already evident cool-
ness within the Pinay government toward present defense policies can
now 130 expected to develop into a more critical approach in relations
with the United States.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Agrarian reform law may cause revolution in Guatemala:
Unrest in Guatemala has been aggravated by 3.3(h)(2)
the passage on 17 June of the agrarian reform
law. There have been scattered riots in rural
areas, attempts have been made to dynamite
y roe ec ric p an s in several cities, and there have reportedly been
numerous arrests. A revolution may be inspired by large landowners
and other anti-Communists,
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President .Arbenz and administration leaders
had repeatedly stated their determination to see the law enacted "even
at the risk of civil war. " The President has ordered all firearm
licenses revoked. Military planes have started patrol flights over the
entire country.
Comment: There is no evidence that the
widespread antigoveknment and anti-Communist activity is now sufficiently
coordinated for a successful revolution.
The Chief of the Armed Forces has declared
his firm support for the government and the agrarian reform law, but
some elements of the army may turn against the government. If rioting
gets out of control, however, the army may feel compelled to take over
the government to restore order.
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