CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/06/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064597
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 20, 1952

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SEC r Y INFORMATION
20 June 1952
Copy No. 53
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOcumetrNo 3 3
tOtHANGE IN CLASS. X
Q DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANCED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH:
WE. 1 REVIEWEF
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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ECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Chataigneau analyzes Soviet policy toward German (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Possible Chinese concession on POW's reported (page 3).
EASTERN EUROPE
3. Comment on reduction of Yugoslav diplomatic staff in Sofia
(page 4).
4. USSR reportedly takes over full control of Hungarian aluminum
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Response to French loan disappointing (page 5).
6. Franco reportedly plans to assume position of regent (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Argentina bars broadcast of US denial of press censorship
(page 6).
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GENERAL
Soviet policy toward Germany: 3.3(h)(2)
"the Kremlin has
not abandoned its effort to exploit the
German people's aspirations toward unity.
Moscow has become less
concerned about free all-German elections because it feels that they
would result in victory for the Social Democratic Party.
the USSR might
be willing to accept a united Germany tied militarily to the West if
a renewal of the Rapallo agreements were arranged. Such a Ger-
many would divert Great Britain and France from being drawn into
an anti-Soviet crusade.
Germany is not the principal field of Soviet maneuvering and that
the Middle East offers more favorable opportunities for exploitation.
Comment: The Rapallo Treaty of 1922
established diplomatic and economic rplations between Germany and
the USSR and laid the framework for covert military cooperation.
Current indications are that the USSR is
steadily increasing its control over East Germany and is not pre-
pared to make real concessions on the issue of free German elections.
FAR EAST
2. Possible Chinese concession on POW's reported:
was told by Chou En-lai on 15 June that
the Chinese were willing to consider two
alternative proposals for solving the
prisoner-of-war question at Panmunjom, the British Foreign Office
has learned.
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According to Ambassador Gifford, the first
proposal is a reduction in the number of POW's to be repatriated,
and the second acceptance by the UN of the principle that all POW's
who wished could return to their homes. The POW's not electing to
do so would be brought to Panmunjom "after being freed from the
military influence and control of Kuomintang and Rhee agents" to be
interviewed by "neutral nations" and Red Cross representatives from
both sides. The North Koreans and Chinese would then abide by the
prisoners' decisions.
Ambassador Gifford concludes that, although
nreliability must be considered, this may be a "genuine 3.3(h)(2)
Comment: Communist propaganda has con-
tinued to stress the "impermissible" nature of UN screening owing
to pressure from "Kuomintang and Rhee agents." Chou's develop-
ment of this theme may 3.3(h)(2)
mean that the Communists are interested in a face-saving compromise.
EASTERN EUROPE
3. Comment on reduction of Yugoslav diplomatic staff in Sofia:
The recall of all but one official of Yugo-
slavia's Embassy staff in Bulgaria follows a series of official Yugo-
slav-Bulgarian recriminations concerning mistreatment of diplomatic
missions. It is probable that the staff of the Bulgarian Embassy in
Belgrade will now be reduced.
While relations between the two governments
have been moving in the direction of a complete break, it would appear
to be adv ntacreniis fnr hnth entintriPs n rnntimip maintaining,- diplomatic
missions 3.3(h)(2)
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4. USSR reportedly takes over full control of Hungarian aluminum:
The USSR is reported
to have taken over full control of the hitherto
jointly-administered Magyar-Soviet Bauxite
Aluminum Company. Simultaneously the
chief of the non-ferrous metals department of the Ministry of Mining
and his deputy were removed.
Comment: The USSR has gradually been
tightening its control over this key Hungarian industry. Assumption
of complete control by the Soviet Union iS logical in view of the recent
severe criticism levelled at the bauxite industry and the critical need
of the Soviet Orbit for aluminum.
During 1951 Hungary accounted for more
than one third of the total Soviet Orbit bauxite production, and
augiaented the USSR's production of aluminum by 15 percent. The
Hungarian bauxite industry in 1952 is scheduled to increase its 1951
output by fifty-three percent.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Response to French loan disappointing:
The French Government is disappointed
because the first three weeks of its new
loan drive have resulted in the sale of
barely half of the first bond issue. While
50 percent of the 457 million dollars received so far represents a
return of hidden capital to circulation, less than 10 percent is in gold.
Subscriptions are lagging, particularly in
rural districts, partly because of pre-harvest cash shortages, but
also because of dissatisfaction with the government's current firm
stand against agricultural price increases.
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Comment The fate of the Pinay government
will be determined largely by the success of this drive, the ,money from
which is urgently needed to provide a minimum investment program
and meet the administrative and military deficits. It is primarily
important to the government for its psychological effect, however,
because it tests popular confidence in the anti-inflation programa
6. Franco reportedly plans to assume position of regent
General Franco plans to name the minor
son of Don Juan as heir-apparent to the
Spanish throne and to assume the position
of regent himself. This action will allegedly he taken before 18 July,
the anniversary of the outbreak of the Civil War,
Comment: Such a step would permit
Franco to remain in power another 16 years.
The Pretender, Don Juan, has consistently
refused to relinquish his rights to the throne in favor of his son or to
recognize the validity of the 1947 Law of Succession.
If Franco carries out this plan, he will
risk creating an incident serious enough to threaten the security of
the regime. Such action would therefore indicate his confidence in
the security of his position.
LA TIN AMERICA
7. Argentina bars broadcast of US denial of press censorship:
The director of the Argentine government-
controlled radio on 18 June refused to allow
the US Embassy in Buenos Aires to broad-
cast the State Department's official denial
that Senora de Peron's "The Reason for my Life" has been banned in
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the United States. The previous day the director had cut the statement
from the script of the Embassy's radio program on the grounds that
permission for its use had to come from higher authorities.
The Embassy comments that it is now evi-
dent that Argentine officials will not allow the denial to be broadcast
or to be published in the Spanish-language press.
Comment: Charges that the United States
has banned Senora de Peron's book currently highlight Argentina's
anti-US campaign. Only two small English-language newspapers in
Buenos Aires have published a denial of the charges.
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