CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/05/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02064589
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 20, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/08 CO2064589
NwITOP SECRET
SECURJFY INFORMATION
20 May 1952
Copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
POOOMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.,
CECLASSIPIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS2:4141
NEXT riEvgaw DATE:
AUTH: R 70.
DATE: REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP CRET
SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
� 1. Moscow Embassy comments on Pravda treatment of Koje incident
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Three Chinese battalions reportedly move into Tonkin (page 3).
3. French reportedly working with Chinese guerrillas across
Indochina border (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. USSR protests omission of oil from Iranian trade agreement
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Tito voices pessimism over bilateral solution of the Trieste
problem (page 6).
6. Secret Bulgarian-Yugoslav contacts reportedly broken off (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Argentina appears interested in trade agreement with the USSR
(page 7).
8. Revolutionary plot in Cuba reported (page 8).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. Moscow Embassy comments on Pravda treatment of Koje incident:
Ambassador Kennan believes that Pravda's 3.3(h)(2)
treatment of the Koje incident as a lead
editorial is significant as an indication that.
Communist negotiators in the Korean truce
talks may have been instructed to hold out for a return of all prisoners
of war. Such prominent space is rarely devoted to an external subject,
and then only when it is a matter of immediate and considerable concern.
In comparison with Malik's statement of last
June, Kennan believes that Pravda's editorial indicates the Kremlin's
determination to agree to an armistice only on Communist terms since
it is now "talking from strength" and even a stalemate in the talks af-
fords it an opportunity for a further military build-up.
FAR EAST
2, Three Chinese battalions reportedly move into Tonkin:
"probably
3.3(h)(2)
reliable" information that a Viet Minh regiment
near Lao Kay, in the northwest border region
of Tonkin, has been reinforced by three "friend-
ly" battalions. The Us Legation believes that "friendly" means Chinese
Communist.
The commander in chief of French forces in
Indochina, General Salan, told the American Minister that he was not
worried over the report, which he described as unconfirmed.
Comment: A brief Chinese Communist in-
cursion into the same area a year ago produced speculation that the
forces involved were the vanguard of an invasion, were foraging for
opium, or were engaged in an intelligence mission. The units withdrew
after a short time.
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SE
SEC
INFORMATION
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108
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3. French reportedly working with Chinese guerrillas across Indochina 3.3(h)(2)
border: 3.3(h)(2)
A French officer
is seeking to arm Chinese guerrillas in Yunnan
as a means of relievina Viet Minh pressure in
the "Lao Kay area,'
Comment: This is the first report since last
October on such French activities. At that time the American Consul
in Hanoi reported "recent signs" of French interest in using Chinese
Nationalist troops interned in Indochina for trans-border intelligence
work./
A reported 1,500 ex-Nationalist
troops have been living as bandits in the mountainous regions east and 3.3(h)(2)
northeast of Lao Kay; groups of them have occasionally engaged Viet
Minh forces.
Under Marshal de Lattre, the French were
careful to undertake no action, such as the arming of Chinese Nationalists,
which might provoke the Chinese Communists.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. USSR protests omission of oil from Iranian trade agreement:
The Soviet Union has protested the omission c3.3(h)(2)
petroleum from the list of products to be ex-
ported by Iran under the still pending renewal
of the Iranian-Soviet trade agreement. The
Iranian official who reported this to the American Embassy believes
that the protest was designed to counterbalance the recent Iranian-
American military aid agreement.
The official said he doubted the USSR's as-
sertion that it could transport the oil from the Persian gulf by tanker;
he added, however, that the Council of Ministers favored including
petroleum in the list.
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Comment: This is the first report from an
official source that the USSR is negotiating for Iranian oil. Although
inclusion of oil in the list would be in line with the Soviet policy of stimu-
lating Mossadeq's intransigence on the oil dispute, the conversation may
represent merely another effort by Iran to force aid from the United
States.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Tito voices pessimism over bilateral solution of the Trieste problem:
Marshal Tito has informed Ambassador Allen 3.3(h)(2)
that his government, although seriously dis-
turbed by the London agreement giving Italy
a larger role in Trieste, continues to favor a
bilateral territorial solution. Tito added,
however, that he was not optimistic over the
result of any Italo-Yugoslav negotiations, and
that he could not take the initiative in resuming
such talks.
According to Tito, a de facto solution of the
Trieste problem, with Zone A gradually being absorbed by Italy and
Zone B by Yugoslavia, would not meet Yugoslav requirements unless
legitimate Yugoslav interests in Zone A were satisfied and further
Italian irredentist claims were renounced.
Ambassador Allen believes that although its
position on Trieste has hardened considerably, Yugoslavia might accept
a territorial settlement if accompanied by assurances against further
Italian demands.
6. Secret Bulgarian-Yugoslav contacts reportedly broken off:
The French Minister to Sofia, according to
the American Embassy in Athens, believes
that contacts were established between the
Yugoslav Legation in Sofia and Bulgarian
Premier C erven ov uring April, and later broken off, presumably
without concrete result.
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The fact that the reported high-level Yugoslav
Bulgarian contact could successfully have been effected even for a brief
period of time is considered by the French to be "highly significant in
itself."
Comment: The French Minister previously
reported that some element in the Bulgarian Government had been in
clandestine contact with the Yugoslav mission in Sofia regarding the
formation of a neutral south Slav bloc. A report from the American
Embassy in Paris described the French Foreign Office as "leaning
toward the view" that the Bulgarian Government, or some element in
it, was trying to "do a Tito."
LATIN AMERICA
7. Argentina appears interested in trade agreement with the USSR:
Argentine delegates to the Moscow Economic
Conference discussed with Soviet officials a
possible trade agreement which would provide
for the exchange of leather, wool, casein,
tungsten, and beryl for Russian machinery,
Comment: It was reliably reported last
, December that Argentina and the USSR were planning to conclude
secret trade negotiations "in the near future." Delegates returning
from the Moscow Economic Conference stated that the USSR was pr'-
mar ily interested in Argentine wool.
Direct trade between the two countries has
heretofore been negligible.
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8. Revolutionary plot in Cuba reported:
Rumors have been circulating in Cuba of 3.3(h)(2)
revolutionary action to take place within the
next few days, possibly on 20 May. These
include reports of a plan to assassinate
Batista during the 20 May celebrations of
the fiftieth anniversary of Cuba's independence.
Comment: Rumors of an impending revolution
in Cuba have been increasing during recent weeks. There is no reason
to believe that the Batista regime does not have sufficient military support
to thwart any armed attack.
T9,.) ,SEC111
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