CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/11/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02059479
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 6, 1953

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 4(9
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE 200_9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:e0//79 REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
.4/ . Soviet ambassador fears adoption of EDC (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. USSR increases jet bomber strength in Far East (page 3).
3. Soviet anti-American propaganda stepped up (page 4).
FAR EAST
/ . Air activity noted opposite Formosa (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Chinese Nationalists hint at pressure on US (page 5).
Indonesian Communists exploiting UnUed States tin policies
Ao, (page 5).
lir Indonesian government party ordered to cooperate with
Communists (page 6).
8. Burmese report Sovet commercial offer (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Mossadeq supporters and Tudeh reportedly plan demonstration
10.
11.
EASTERN EUROPE
12. Comment on probable new government in Finland (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. Soviet ambassador fears adoption of EDC:
In a recent conversation in Paris with
Soviet ambassador Vinogradov, the
French ambassador to Moscow obtained
the impression that Vinogradov, in con-
trast to his position last summer, appeared to fear that EDC would
be adopted.
Vinogradov repeated his earlier views
that the Soviet Union and France had a common interest in prevent-
ing German remilitarization, that EDC ratification is not in the best
interest of France, and that the two nations should consequently ex-
change views on the German problem.
Comment: Qn 8 August Malenkov made
a pointed reference to the Franco-Soviet pact as a basis for European
security, an idea reintroduced in the Soviet note of 3 November.
Soviet propaganda has similarly attempted to capitalize on French
reluctance to accept German rearmament in any form.
SOVIET UNION
2. USSR increases jet bomber strength in Far East:
Between 7 September and 1 November at
least 120 IL-28's were ferried from
European Russia to the Soviet Far East
and the China-Manchuria area. These
represent almost a third of all jet light
bombers transferred to the Far East since the first arrivals in
June 1952.
Comment: This report highlights the
rapid modernization of the Communist air forces in the Far East.
More than half of the 25 Soviet light bomber regiments and all the
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Soviet fighter regiments in the Far East are now in some stage of
conversion to jets or already fully equipped.
At least 40 of the jet light bombers
ferried to the Far East since 7 September flew into Manchuria,
probably for transfer to the Chinese air force.
3. Soviet anti-American propaganda stepped up:
Ambassador Bohlen has noted a revival
of Soviet "hate-America" propaganda
and a sharpened anti-American tone in
current output.
He points out that propaganda since
Stalin's death has been primarily of a general nature, drawing
the usual Marxist distinction between conditions in a Communist
state and those in the outside world where workers and colonial
peoples are subject to capitalist exploitation.
In Bohlen's opinion, however, the more
specific type of propaganda directed toward developing hate and
fear of a particular country, which was prevalent in Stalin's last
years, has been making a comeback during the past two months,
although it is still not predominant and still far below that of the
Stalinist period. He believes that propaganda of this type comes
to the fore in periods when Soviet leaders are unwilling even to
enter negotiations.
FAR EAST
4. Air activity Doted opposite Formosa:
flight UitiSSU13nn
y
planes, in Fukien Province opposite
Formosa. The focus of this activity
appears to be Chienou airfield, about 90 miles inland.
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Comment: There have been indications
that the Chinese Communist 1201 Air Division was transferred during
October from Peiping to an unidentified base south of Shanghai. An
unconfirmed report of early October specified that elements of this
division were at Chienou airfield, which was used by the United States
air force during World War II and is believed capable of sustaining
jet fighter operations.
Deployment of a jet fighter unit in the
coastal area between Shanghai and Canton, where no other tactical
aircraft are known to be based, would be a logical defense measure.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Chinese Nationalists hint at pressure on US:
The American embassy in Taipei has
been shown portions of a message, pur-
portedly sent to General Li Mi by sub-
ordinates still at Mong Hsat in Burma,
protesting merican u port of the Burmese. According to a
Chinese Nationalist Foreign Ministry official� the message also
contained a paragraph asserting that, in the event of continued
American pressure endangering the existence of Nationalist forces
in Burma, they would "make known to the world the relations which
once existed between our troops and the United States and let the
world pass fair judgment."
Comment: The message may be genuine,
but might also have been invented or elaborated in Taipei. National-
ist officials in either place might well believe that such a threat
would induce the United States to relax its pressure for evacuation
of Li Mi's forces.
6. Indonesian Communists exploiting United States tin policies:
American tin purchases are assuming
primary political importance in Indo-
nesia and have been seized on by the
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Communists as an issue on which to attack American policy
according to Ambassador Cumming in Djakarta. The Com-
munists are encouraging the belief that the United States will
buy tin only to the extent that Indonesia is willing to make po-
litical concessions.
The ambassador comments that the
Indonesians have not forgotten the government crisis of 1952
over the question of American aid, which many of them con-
sidered was being used as an instrument of political policy.
He emphasized that falling markets for Indonesian tin and other
products might well lead to further social unrest which the Com-
munists could exploit.
Comment: The United States is about
to negotiate the third annual purchase of approximately 20,000
tons of tin unde-k terms of a contract signed in March 1952, The
Communists apparently are trying to make it appear that the an-
ticipated decrease in price, which is subject to negotiation in the
third year of the contract, represents an effort to exact political
concessions.
7. Indonesian government party ordered to cooperate with Communists:
The American embassy in Djakarta
confirms a report that the chairman
of Indonesia's National Party, the
major element in the present govern-
ment, recen y s he had instructed the party's branches
throughout the country to "establish good connections" and co-
operate with the Communists. He said that since the Communists
were supporthig the government in parliament, such instructions
were completely logical,
Natthnal Party and t
the past six months
Comment: Relations between the
come ver close during
Through cooperation, the
Communists have achieved a major voice in Indonesian affairs
while escaping the responsibilities of cabinet office.
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8. Burmese report Soviet commercial offer:
Kyaw Nyein, Burmese minister of industryl
told Ambassador Sebald that the Soviet
Union had offered on 30 October to provide
vehicles, medicines, building material and
industrial equipment in exchange for rice, lead and beans. He stated
that the prime minister had issued instructions to prepare for negotia-
tions,
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On the other hand, Kyaw Nyein expressed
the fear that his country was entering a Soviet trap and was concerned
that any trade agreement would lead to an influx of Soviet technicians.
He also indicated that an early American decision to provide Burma
with military equipment would do much to strengthen its anti-Communist
orientation.
Comment:
It is probable that Kyaw Nyein's remarks were made 3.3(h)(2)
primarily in an effort to obtain American arms and to get help in
disposing of the current rice surplus.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Mossadeq supporters and Tudeh reportedly plan demonstration:
The pro-Mossadeq National Resistance 3.3(h)(2)
Movement, in collaboration with the Tudeh,
is planning a one-day demonstration against
the Iranian government
The Movement, acting for nine pro-
Mossadeq groups, reportedly plans demonstrations in the bazaar.
If they are successful, a Tudeh demonstration will be started in
Majlis square.
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It is understood that the demonstrators
will fight any civilian crowds which the government may raise, but
have not decided on the tactics to be used if the troops are called
out.
Mossadeq, now in prison awaiting trial,
allegedly has approved these plans.
Comment: A demonstration may be
attempted in connection with Mossadeq's trial, but it probably
will not be large. Most of the pro-Mossadeq groups are relatively
insignificant, and it is not believed that the Tudeh is willing to make
an all-out effort now. The security forces should be able to control
any disturbances.
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11.
EASTERN EUROPE
12. Comment on probable new government in Finland:
A coalition of the Social Democratic and
right-of-center parties is expected to succeed Premier Kekkonen's
Agrarian-controlled minority government which resigned on 4 Nov-
ember. Such a government, with a working majority of 106 out of
200 parliamentary seats, would be stronger than its predecessor
and be assured of the support of a large share of labor as well as
business interests. Its ability to agree on measures to solve Fin-
land's economic problems will be limited, however, by the wide
disparity of views on economic issues held by the members of the
proposed coalition.
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The Soviet Union has indicated its dis-
pleasure at the prospect that strongly pro-Western elements will
be included in the cabinet by bitter press attacks on representar
ewes of the Social Democratic and conservative parties. Since
Sovilet-Finnish trade negotiations are currently under way in
Moscow, the USSR could further manifest its disapproval by
engaging in dilatory tactics and attempting to force less favorable
terms on the Finns.
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