CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/07/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02058872
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: July 2, 1959

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2 July 1959
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Copy No. C 1;3
CENTRAL
IYTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
; DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REViEW DATE:
AUTH: 1,4F11,719,-26e,
DATE. Y.2.f.Yr_P!REVIEWER:
-TOP-SEC-RET-
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2 JULY 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Bulgarian party attacks critics of "leap
forward"; may foreshadow a high-level
purge.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Chinese Nationalists complete with-
drawal of 15,000 troops from Chinmen
complex, leaving effective troop strength
at 65,000.
Indian Praja Socialists seek to bring
Tibet case before UN; New Delhi says
it will not recognize a Tibetan exile
government.
III. THE WEST
()Continued efforts by Adenauer to elim-
inate ,Erhard as a possible successor are
anticipated.
0 Argentina--Armed forces remain split
over appointment of new top military
commanders.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
2 July 1959
�
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Bulgaria: An editorial in the June edition of the Bulgarian
central ZZE�mittee's monthly journal contained a sweeping attack
on opponents of Bulgaria's "leap forward." The editorial was
clearly meant to intimidate opponents of the program and may
have been intended to lay the groundwork for a purge of the par-
ty's ranks--even extending into the politburo--which could begin
at the National Assembly session scheduled for 3 July.
O Watch Committee conclusion--Berlin: No significant indica-
tions bearing on the possibility of hostilities.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Taiwan Strait situation: ra'he Chinese Nationalists have com-
pleted the withdrawal of 15,000 troops on schedule from the Chinmen
offshore island complex in accordance with an agreement with US
military authorities. An estimated effecttve troop strength of 65,000
remains on the islands. Communist firing has been limited to a few
011� rounds on odd days, and the Nationalists have only fired some rounds
containing propaganda leaflets from the Chinmens against mainland
targets since 7 January (Page 2)
Dalai Lama., Indian Praja Socialist party leaders plan to send
emissaries abroad to arouse support for taking the Tibet case to the
United Nations. They also plan to promote recognition by Asian and
African governments of a Tibetan government-in-exile. These plans
apparently were responsible for the Indian Government's announcement
tion 30 June that it would not recognize such a government. Speculation
Orls increasing in India that the Dalai Lama may have to leave the coun-
try if he wishes to work actively for Tibetan autonomy.
(Page 3)
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Watc;1Committee conclusion--Middle East: Situations
susceptible of direct exploitation by Sino-Soviet bloc action
which would jeopardize US interests exist, particularly in
Iraq and Iran.
The initiation of significant hostilities is unlikely in the
immediate future.
III. THE WEST
West Germany: espite the demonstration of Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) solidarity in electing Heinrich Luebke
president on 1 July, internal CDU tensions resulting from the
Adenauer-Erhard dispute remain. Adenauer probably will
continue his efforts to eliminate Economics Minister Erhard
as a possible successor. These efforts most likely will take
the form of a behind-the-scenes campaign. The chancellor's
first move may be to transfer certain aspects of foreign
economic -policy to the Foreign and Finance ministries:1
(Page 4)
Argentina: The armed forces are still split over the ap-
pointment of new top military commanders. jhe army secre-
tary has offered his resignation to avoid a showdowIg Al-
though there is surface calm, the situation remains un-
certain pending the completion of negotiations now under way
to select compromise commanders. This has been demanded
by moderate military elements as well as by the minority
group of persistent plotters. (Page 5)
IV. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
(Available during the preceding week)
Probable Soviet Position at a Conference on Antarctic.
SNIE 11-7-59, 30 June 59.
2 July 59 DAILY BRIEF
/
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-term Outlook in Iraq. SNIE 36. 2/2-59. 30 June 59.
Situation in the Caribbean Through 1959. SNIE 80-59.
30 lune 59.
2 July 59
DAILY BRIEF iii
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4usiof I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC *4�Pv
Bulgarian Party Warns Against Opposing "Leap"
An editorial in the June issue of the Bulgarian central
committee publication,Novo Vreme, shows that there is still
extensive opposition to the country's seven-month-old "leap
forward," even in the highest echelons of the party. Citing as
an example Boris Taskov, who was removed as minister of
trade in March and as a politburo and central committee mem-
ber in April, the editorial states "there are individual cases
in our party" where "tested cadres and fearless revolutionaries...
are afraid of difficulties and hold back." This suggests that at
least some of the party cadres may be breaking under the strain
imposed by the "leap" on the party and masses alike.
The most significant point of the editorial, however, was
that some party members have "incorrect" attitudes toward
"collectivism," and that the minority must accept decisions.
Attempts to "bypass the central committee and politburo" were
noted, as well as "attempts to undermine party unity" and
"whispers against the party line and leadership." These are
extremely serious charges, and, in the past, have been used
to justify action against important party figures in bloc coun-
tries,
While the editorial clearly implies that serious charges will
be leveled against opponents of the "leap" unless their attitude
changes, it may also be laying the groundwork for a shake-up of
the party which could begin with changes in the government at the
National Assembly session scheduled for 3 July. Such a shake-up
would probably include several officials at the medium and lower
levels of party and state administration and might extend into the
politburo. It would be designed to repress further signs of oppo-
sition to the "leap" as well as encourage greater efforts toward
fulfilling the program. Earty First Secretary Todor Zhivkov, de-
sirous of consolidating his leadership, may also take the oppor-
tunity to eliminate reported supporters of ex-party boss Vulko
Chervenkov, such as politburo member Georgi Tsankov, whose
imminent demotion has long been rumoreg
2 July 59
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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IL ASIA-AFRICA
Taiwan Strait Situation
Gle Chinese Nationalists have reported completing on
schedule the withdrawal of 15,000 troops from the Chinmen
Islands in accord with an agreement concluded with the United
States last November. American authoritlek estimate effective
troop strength on the islands at about 65,000.
Whe military situation in the Taiwan Strait remains generally
quiet. The few flurries of shelling in the last few months have
been confined to the Matsu area and appear to have been initiated
by Nationalist firing on Communist small craft which ventured
close to the islands. The Communists continue to fire light
barrages on odd days against the Chinmen complex, but the
Nationalists have fired only a small number of propaganda rounds
from the Chinmens against the mainland target since 7 January.
e Chinese Nationalist Air Force, which has a total of 155
F-86F aircraft equipped to fire the SIDEWINDER air-to-air guided
missile, now is carrying the missile on regular patrol flights.
Four missile-equipped aircraft are assigned to two regular sector
patrols over the Taiwan Strait, and two similarly equipped aircraft
are maintained on air-defense alert...7
2 July 59
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
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%woe
Indian Socialists Begin Campaign to Support Tibetan Autonomy
New Delhi's relationships with the Dalai Lama, already
somewhat tense as a result of the Lama's 20 June statement,
are likely to be further strained by an international campaign
in support of the Dalai Lama being waged by India's Praja
Socialist party. This party took the lead in agitating against
Peiping during the period of the Tibetan revolt and the Lama's
flight to India. It plans soon to send emissaries to numerous
Asian countries in an effort to mobilize support for Tibet. The
emissaries will urge recognition of Tibetan autonomy and of
the Dalai Lama as leader of a government-in-exile. They will
also suggest taking the Tibetan case to the United Nations and
will promote a trip by the Lama to various Buddhist countries.
J. P. Narayan, India's foremost socialist leader, discussed
these matters with Afro-Asian and European diplomats in New
Delhi on 26 and 27 June and with Prime Minister Nehru on 28
June. Narayan's discussions probably stimulated the govern-
ment's announcement on 30 June that it did not recognize the
Dalai Lama as leader of a government-in-exile. This announce-
ment also stated that while India had granted the Lama asylum,
it expected him to do nothing contrary to international usage or
embarrassing to India.
There is some speculation in India that the Dalai Lama will
eventually have to leave the country if he carries on an active
campaign for Tibetan independence and if he intends to take the
Tibetan issue to the UN. Neither the Indian Government nor the
Dalai Lama is likely to push the situation to a point of crisis in
the near future. Should Praja Socialist activities result in a
number of invitations from Asian countries, however, the Dalai
Lama would probably consider making a formal tour at some
future date.
CONFIDENTIAL
2 July 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
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III. THE WEST
West German Political Situation
Despite the demonstration of Christian Democratic Union
(CDU) solidarity in electing Heinrich Luebke president on J.
July, internal tensions resulting from the Adenauer-Erhard
dispute remain. Chancellor Adenauer will probably continue
his efforts to discredit Economics Minister Erhard and eliminate
him as a possible successolj.
/Although Adenauer will probably not bring the dispute back
into the open, he is reliably reported determined to finish Erhard
politically regardless of the consequences. The chancellor's first
move in whittling away Erhard's authority and support is likely to
be an effort to transfer the economic aspects of the Common Market
and European integration to the Foreign and Finance ministries:
Rrhard has already lost support because of his vacillating re-
sponse to Adenauer's attacks. Other prominent CDU members such as
Finance Minister Etzel9 Defense Minister Strauss, and Interior Min-
ister Schroeder have been encouraged by Erhard's weakness to as-
sert their own claims to the chancellorship
although Erhard has lost some of his personal following, a
significant number of CDU members still support his ideas on im-
proving relations with London through the free trade area, in
preference to Adenauer's complete reliance on France. Other CDU
members regard this issue as an opportunity to challenge Adenauer's
foreign policies in general. CDU Bundestag deputies who personally
oppose Adenauer but support his foreign policies may find it diffi-
cult to continue this sunnort in rominq mnriths-i
2 July 59
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*IV
Argentine Military Discuss Compromise Appointments
The armed forces are still split over the selection of new
top military commanders; negotiations to compromise the matter
are being held by the administration and by extremist and mod-
erate army groups,
almost the entire army has insisted on the resignation of Army
Secretary Solanas Pacheco, and on 30 June he resubmitted his
resignation to avoid a showdown among army factio9 To ease
navy dissension, Navy Secretary Estevez hari relizquiGhed hi
concurrent position as chief of naval operations to Fleet Com-
mander Vago, who is probably acceptable to the administration
and the major navy factions.
The threat to Frondizits position has not been generally
realized by the majority of Argentines,
New communiques from dissident though
more moderate groups., such as the Cordoba garrison, now
describe the problem as internal army conflict and not a threat
to constitutional government.
The government on 1 July moved to ease its relationship
with the army by relieving it of responsibility for controlling
railway, petroleum, and bus personnel. This also removes
an issue used by the Peronistas and Communists in agitating
for strikes and may soften the strong left-of-center opposition
to new Economy and Labor Minister Alsogaray. Alsogaray
made another popular gesture by announcing on 27 June that
he would strictly enforce price control on a dozen basic con-
sumer items.
2 July 59
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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