CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02051072
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 19, 1952

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SECURI IN:FORMATION
19 October 1952
Copy No.
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO St
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1:1 DECLASSIFIED
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
CLASS. CHANGED TO: Td,ruaripsi
AUTH: H 70-2
DATE: REVIEWER: 3.5(c)
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Communist ground capabilities in western Korea significantly
reduced (page 3).
3.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Britain now favors early approach to Arab states on MEDO
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4. US Ambassador doubts success of Point Four in Lebanon (page 4).
5. Syria signs agreement for the resettlement of Arab refugees
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslav official sees revolt in Albania unlikely (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Austria opposes US views on peace treaty (page 6).
8. French Government optimistic on lifting parliamentary immunity
of top Communists (page 7).
9. Spain reportedly evading strategic export ban (page 7).
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FAR EAST
1. Communist ground capabilities in western Korea significantly reduced:
The recent movement of the Chinese
Communist 63rd Army from the immediate
rear in the western sector of the front
reduces significantly the probability of
a Communist general offensive, according to Far East Command.
It also represents a serious weakening of the enemy's immediate
defensive capability.
This army's new position further west
leaves the Communists with no immediate reserve known to be
in support of the front line from the west coast to Pyonggang in
the central sector.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Britain now favors early approach to Arab states on MEDO:
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Britain is now prepared to join with the
other sponsoring powers of the Middle
East Defense Organization in an early
approach to the Arab States. The British
Foreign Office recommends the presentation of a written statement
to the Arab governments asking for their preliminary views on
Middle East defense planning, but warns against entering into
any extended negotiations. An approach to Egypt would be accompanied
by further British attempts to solve the Suez problem.
Comment: Britain had previously argued
that no approach should be made to the Middle East states until
after the actual establishment of the proposed Middle East defense
planning organization.
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4. US Ambassador doubts success of Point Four in Lebanon:
Ambassador Minor doubts that the Point
Four program can be successfully carried
out in Lebanon and believes that even the
present programs should be delayed until
there is evidence of true Lebanese cooperation.
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The Ambassador feels that the program
has been pressed on Lebanon to the point of imposing aid and adds
that the entrenched interests and high government officials of the
country have no desire for the Point Four type of assistance.
Comment: The states of the Middle East
in general have been reluctant to enter the Point Four program.
Since Beirut is the center for the program in the area, the failure
of Point Four in Lebanon would have unfavorable reactions in other
Arab states.
Ambassador Berry in Iraq has also
reported strong local criticism of the program.
5. Syria signs agreement for the resettlement of Arab refugees:
On 13 October Colonel Shishakli,
� militalty dictator of Syria, signed a
$30,000�000 agreement with the United
Nations Relief and Works Agency for
the resettlement of 80,000 Palestine
Arab refugees now in Syria. The agreement is to remain secret
until public opinion in the country is prepared. Syria has not
yet publicly accepted the principle of resettlement of Palestinian
refugees, and the text of the agreement refers only to "amelioration
of living conditions."
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Comment: Although the lengthy negotiions
over the resettlement of Arab refugees have been concluded, implemen-
tation of the agreement may be slow because Shishakli is aware of the
general Arab sentiment which insists that the refugees be returned
to their original homes.
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EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslav official sees revolt in Albania unlikely:
No imminent revolt in Albania is likely,
according to Yugoslav Minister of
Interior Rankovic. He admits that
the Yugoslav Government has contacted
ormer og, but claims that the Zog group, as well as
other Albanian emigres in the west, are far removed from
realities within Albania and have no influence there.
Comment: Rankovic's views on prospects
of an imminent revolt in Albania generally agree with statements
of other Yugoslav officials.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Austria opposes US views on peace treaty:
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American officials in Vienna report that 3.3(h)(2)
the consensus of opinion in the Austrian
Government is that mere evacuation of
occupation forces and the end of the
occupation regime wow.d be preferable to an indefinite prolongation of
t he existing situation. Austrian officials believe that their observers
at the UN would encourage such a proposal there if it were presented
be another power.
Comment: The Austrian attitude toward the
American-supported draft resolution before the UN, calling the
occupation powers to resume negotiations for a "state treaty," has
been considerably in doubt. The present development suggests that
Austria is in clear disagreement with the American view that the
evacuation of troops without sufficient guarantees of Austrian
national integrity would be hazardous.
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8. French Government optimistic on lifting parliamentary immunity
of top Communists:
A French Defense Ministry official has
informed the American Embassy that the case
for lifting the parliamentary immunity
of five leading Communist members of
the National Assembly has been carefully prepared and is fairly
well documented. The case has been presented by the Paris
Military Tribunal to the Parliamentary Immunity Commission,
and a favorable recommendation to the Assembly is hoped for
within the,next few weeks.
Comment: Lifting of parliamentary
immunity wotild enable the government to put the Communists on
trial for having encouraged disobedience in the arm.ed forces and
having attempted to obtain secret military information. Material
seized during recent raids on Communist organizations would
be used to document these charges,
9. Spain reportedly evading strategic export ban:
A shipment of 1,460 tons of lead ignots,
which left Spain early in October for
delivery to Hamburg, is destine
transshipment to the Soviet bloc,
The purchaser was R L Antonioni
of Geneva, an East-West trader.
Comment: Spain's Ministry of Commerce
in December 1951 pledged cooperation in controlling exports of
strategic materials to the Soviet bloc. By last summer, however,
Spain's dollar position had deteriorated to such an extent that the
government authorized the sale of low-grades pyrites with the full
knowledge that these materials were ultimately destined for the Soviet
bloc. Spanish authorities have in the past blocked direct sales of lead
to Antoniolli, but they have disclaimed responsibility for indirect
transactions,presumably like the present one.
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