CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02051071
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 14, 1952

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SECURY INFORMATION
14 October 1952
copy NO.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
57
DOCUMENT NO.
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REVIEWER
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Malik attempts to sound out US on Korea (page 3).
2. Kennan comments on Soviet approach to France (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Ambassador Murphy comments on political situation in
japan (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4, Further indications of imminent Viet Minh offensive (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.. Iranian cabinet ministers reportedly refuse to resign (page 5).
6. British troop concentration reported near Iranian-Iraqi
border (page 6).
7. Egypt maintains reservations on Sudan statute (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslav relations with Vatican deteriorate (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
I. Malik attempts to sound out US on Korea:
Soviet UN delegate Malik asked the Israeli 3.3(h)(2)
delegate on 10 October what UN action the
United States desires on Korea. Malik
questioned whether the US really wants peace
In Korea, citing the election campaign
speecheS and Eisenhower's "admission" that American prosperity
depends on a war economy.
Malik supported the Chinese stand on
repatriation of prisoners, although his remarks suggested to the
Israeli that the USSR is less opposed than the Chinese Communists
to the most recent UN proposals.
The Israeli delegate commented that
Malik appeared uninformed on current Soviet policy pending
Vyshinsky's arrival. He believed Malik would assume that their
conversation would be reported to the United States.
2. Kennan comments on Soviet approach to France:
mbassador Kennan reports that the
ecent approach of Soviet Foreign
mister Vyshinsky to French Ambassador
Oxe for a new understanding with France
s a tnajor Soviet move aimed at splitting the Western coma/amity."
Kennan believes the Soviet move fits in completely with foreign
policy laid down last April and recently made public in Stalin's
article in Bolshevik.
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The Ambassador feels that if talks
take place the French will not fail to recognize "the Soviet
ill will and duplicity which underlies all of its diplomatic
moves toward non-Communist governments."
FAR EAST
3. Ambassador Murphy comments on political situation in Japan:
Ambassador Murphy believes that,
despite the success of the Liberal and
Progressive Parties, the recent
election has brought about a changed
uncertain political situation in Japan. He notes that the
new Diet will include 132 wartime leaders and a substantial
number of other new members whose stand on current issues
is at present unknown.
He believes that although the election
failed to produce a clear mandate on any specific issue, it can
be interpreted as a general endorsement of the principle of
American-Japanese cooperation. Murphy points out that n o
prominent Japanese who held office during the occupation was
defeated, despite predictions that this group would be repudiated
at the polls.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Further indications of imminent Viet Minh offensive:
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Recent developments, 3.3(h)(2)
which compare closely with those
noted prior to the Hoa Binh offensive
in December 1951, suggest that the
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Viet Minh will expand its military operations in Tonkin shortly
after 15 October. Among indications recently noted are establishment
of what appears to be an advance eneral hea
Comment: These developments lend
weight to the conclusion rec nay drawn regarding an P2r1y
offensive
Two major Viet Minh groupings have been
identified in Tonkin, the first and stronger to the north and west
of the French defense perimeter, and the second to the south. The
pattern of previous Viet Minh offensives and the present disposition
of forces suggest that the former will be the main force, while
the latter will engage in diversionary action.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iranian cabinet ministers reportedly refuse to resign:
The cabinet ministers whom Mossadeq
planned to replace have refused to
resign,/'
Mossadeq can now remove
them only by himself resigning, obtaining reappointment and
forming a new cabinet.
Mossadeq hesitates to resign because
he is not sure that Kashani will support him for reappointment.
Recently he called on the mullah to ask his advice.
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Comment: Even the National Front has
criticized the cabinet for ITFTICeificiency. Mossadeq's opponents
may hope to use the ministers' refusal to resign as a way to force
parliament to discuss the cabinet, which could lead to an attempt
to vote the Prime Minister out of office.
6. British troop concentration reported near Iranipm-Iraqi border:
/two battalions of British
parachute troops are now stationed at
SIiaib a base near Basra, Iraq. The troops have been arriving
secretly in small groups from the Suez Canal zone. They will
be used to protect the Abadan refinery only if diporders break out
and there is danger that the installations will be seized by
the Tudeh.
Comment: Shaiba is one of the two
airbases in Iraq currently operated by the British Air Force.
In late September the chief of the
Iranian General Staff sent reinforcements t o southern Iran
after receiving reports of British troop concentrations in Iraq,
the army is
continuing to receive such reports. There is no confirmation,
however, that any British troops have been sent to Iraq recently.
7. Egypt maintains reservation p on Sudan statute:
The Egyptian Government has serious
reservations on the British draft
statute for the Sudan, according to
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representatives of General Nagib's inner circle. The military
regime considers that it will be necessary to consult with the
various Sudanese political factions before Egypt can state its
objections to the present draft.
According to Ambassador Caffery, the
real objective of the Cairo regime is self- determination for the
Sudanese. He points out that, although this is a departure from
past Egyptian policy of "unity of the Nile Valley," it would free
the Sudan from de facto British sovereignty as well as from
nominal Egyptian suzerainty.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslav relations with Vatican deteriorate:
Ambassador Allen reports that tension in
official Yugoslav-Vatican relations has
sharply increased as a result of the press
campaign attacking alleged interference
by the Vatican in internal Yugoslav affairs. The press charges
that the Vatican instructed the recent bishops' conference in
Zagreb to order the clergy not to join government-sponsored
priest associations.
The Papal Charge d'Affaires in Belgrade
is extremely worried about the future position of the Nungiate,
Comment: Assistant Yugoslav Foreign
Minister Bebler recently Taaliie French Ambassador that it was
very likely that Vatican representation in Yugoslavia would soon
be terminated.
The increasinly vehement press claims
that the actions of the Papal Charge go "beyond the bounds" of
diplomatic immunity further indicate that the government is
considering a complete break in relations.
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A bre* with the Vatican would largely
negate the popular good will which the Yugoslav regime obtained
in the West by its release of Archbishop Stepinac in late 1951.
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