CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050138
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 19, 1953

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19 March 1953
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Copy No. 6 0
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 6111
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS C
NEXT REVIEW DATE'
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE), FIEVIEVVER:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. USSR tests its northern radar defenses (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Mossadeq plans extensive changes in Iranian army commands
/(page 3).
. Mossadeq prepares public statement on breakdown of oil
negotiations (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4.
5,
6.
Austrian Chancellor may give up attempt to form government
(page 5).
Atlantic Community as alternative to EDC seen gaining support
in Belgium (page 5).
* * * *
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SOVIET UNION
1. USSR tests its northern radar defenses:
a target aircraft,
possibly a TU-4, flew 1500 nautical miles
over the northern area of the European USSR
in a radar-tracking exercise. The plane flew
north irom the Leningrad area, crossed the Karelo-Finnish Republic to
Murmansk, then returned south to the Smolensk area.
Soviet air defense capabilities in the northern
USSR were improved in early 1952 by the deployment of jet fighters
in the area. Later in 1952 a modern radar installation was reported
near Murmansk.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Mossadeq plans extensive changes in Iranian army commands:
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newly-appointed Chief of 3.3(h)(2)-
Staff Riahi intended to make extensive changes
In the army. The changes reportedly were to
affect the headquarters staff, the military police, and the military
school. Some of the division commanders in the provinces were also
to be shifted.
Prime Minister Mossadeq allegedly decided
on these moves after receiving numerous reports that general officers
were openly expressing loyalty to the Shah.
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Comment: Seven command changes,
including staff, military police and provincial divisions, were
announced on 11 March. Officers loyal to the government rather
than to the Shah were put in responsible posts. More reassignments
can be expected as Mossadeq continues to consolidate his position.
3. Mossadeq prepares public statement on breakdown of oil negotiations:
On 17 March Prime Minister Mossadeq sent
Ambassador Henderson the text of the speech,
scheduled to be delivered on 20 March, in
which he will announce the breakdown in the
British-Iranian oil talks.
In the speech Mossadeq reiterates that Iran
can never pay the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company compensation for loss
of future profits: to do so would violate the principle of nationalization.
A settlement has not been reached, he will claim, because the British
expected Iranian traitors to install a government favorable to Britain.
Mossadeq plans also to state that he will
negotiate at any time that Britain is ready to consider Iran's rights.
The Iranian Government is willing to reserve 25 percent of its net
oil revenues to pay compensation for the oil installations and to sub-
mit to adjudication by the International Court, providing prior agree-
ment is reached on the basis for making claims. Alternatively, Iran
is prepared to enter into direct negotiations with Britain.
Comment: Mossadeq's lengthy and somewhat
contradictory speech, which includes distortions and recriminations,
offers no prospects for a settlement. While he leaves the door open
for a renewal of oil talks, he has not altered his basic position.
Resumption of oil talks under Mossadeq's
conditions would require Britain to abandon a point which it feels is
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fundamental for safeguarding international business interests--
compensation for loss of expected profits during the balance of a
cancelled concession.
The proposed speech exhibits unusual
restraint toward the United States, despite recent indications of
Increasing antagonism. He apparently continues to hope for
American aid.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Austrian Chancellor may give up attempt to form government:
The American Embassy in Austria reports
that negotiations between the Socialists and
the People's Party for the formation of a
government are approaching a critical stage.
Unless Chancellor Figl is able to form a government this week, he
may give up the attempt.
People's Party leaders state that if an agree-
ment cannot be reached with the Socialists, the People's Party will
probably attempt to form a temporary minority government pending
new elections.
Comment: It is doubtful that the People's
Party could form a minority government at this time, since it would
need the support of the Union of Independents, which is far from
united on current People's Party policies.
5. Atlantic Community as alternative to EDC seen gaining support in
Belgium:
Ambassador Cowen reports that some
prominent Belgian political leaders who
doubt that France will ratify the EDC
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Treaty are insisting on a broader union based on the Atlantic
Community instead of the proposed European� defense and political
communities. Such views will gain increasing support the longer
French ratification is delayed.
Comment: The idea of a confederation�
to include most of the Atlantic nations, which was sidetracked when
the European Defense Community scheme came to the forefront, is
apparently receiving renewed consideration both on the Continent
and in Britain as an alternative in the event the EDC Treaty is not
ratified.
A 17 February French Foreign Ministry
circular message stated that the best way to achieve European
integration is for France to strengthen its ties with the Atlantic
Community.
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