CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050135
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 15, 1953

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15 March 1953
Copy No. 60
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. /
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIVIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS $ C
NEAT REVIEW DATE: .---------_
AVM; HR 704
DATE:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Ceylonese firm offers to buy Iranian oil for Communist China (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Comment on fall of Yoshida government (page 3).
3. North Korean Air Force increases jet strength (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Afghanistan apparently to proceed with oil development near Soviet
frontier (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Shah reportedly still wishes to leave Iran (page 5).
6. British studying Arab Pact as basis for area defense (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Comment on the death of President Gottwald of Czechoslovakia
(page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Ceylonese firm offers to buy Iranian oil for Communist China:
Prime Minister Mossadeq on 13 March 1n5tructed3.3(h)(2)
the American Embassy's Iranian adviser, Saleh,
to inform Ambassador Henderson that a Ceylonese
firm had offered to assist in purchasing Iranian
oil for the Chinese Communist Government The Prime Minister stated
that it would be difficult for him to refuse oil to anyone if the United States
continues to support the British embargo.
Comment: It may be that the Prime Minister
desires to use this offer as a means of exerting pressure on the United
States. Mossadeq has previously indicated, however, his willingness to
sell oil to "all corners."
Although China would probably be interested in
obtaining Iranian oil, the securing of tankers would be a major problem.
Orbit tankers are now fully employed and Western shipping would be re-
luctant to carry Iranian oil to Communist China.
FAR EAST
2. Comment on fall of Yoshida government:
The fall of the Yoshida government on 14 March
culminates five months of instability since the October elections The elec-
tions called for 19 April should return another predominantly conservative
Diet. Although there will undoubtedly be some shift in popular support to-
ward the Socialists, the shortness of campaign time and the weak financial
position of the opposition will tend to favor the incumbents.
A complete realignment of Japanese conservative
forces may result in a coalition government headed either by Shigemitsu of
the Progressive Party or Hatoyama of the Liberals. A government under
either of these men would still continue Japan's Western orientation. It
would be less likely, however, to resist current pressures for closer eco-
nomic relations with Communist China, and it might seek to de-emphasize
Japan's close alliance with the United States.
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3. North Korean Air Force increases jet strength:
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Comment: During the past six months both the
NICAF and the Chinese Communist Air Force have taken a more active role
in the defensive air war which is now largely confined to the area between
the Yalu and Chongchon Rivers. There are no firm indications that this
defensive role will be expanded further south, or that it will change into
an offensive mission.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Afghanistan apparently to proceed with oil development near Soviet frontier:
The American Embassy in Kabul believes that 3.3(h)(2)
Afghanistan is considering proceeding with oil
development in the north in spite of Soviet pro-
tests. The Afghan Government has formally
requestede ass ance of the United Nations and the International Labor
Organization in training 40 Afghan oil technicians in the Near East, accord-
ing to a United Nations Technical Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.
Comment: Last September the Afghan Govern-
ment rejected a Soviet note protestfng oil drilling preparations by a French
firm in northern Afghanistan, but nevertheless decided not to proceed with
operations. The British Ambassador in Kabul reported in February an
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Afghan cabinet decision to continue oil exploration "after an appropriate
cooling-off period." The government may feel that if it employs its own
nationals there will be no objection from the Soviet Union.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Shah reportedly still wishes to leave Iran:
The Shah is remaining in Tehran out of a sense 3.3(h)(2)
of duty to his people,
The ruler
sae e oes not know how much longer he can carry on under present
conditions.
Comment: Ambassador Henderson has not
talked with the Shah since the recent Tehran riots, but has reported un-
confirmed information that the Shah might still try to leave the country
at the first opportunity.
6. British studying Arab Pact as basis for area defense:
The British Foreign Office is studying the
possibility of basing Middle East defense on
the Arab League Collective Security Pact.
An official indicated that the Foreign Office
believes it important to retain a flexible
approach on regional defense arrangements.
At the same time, however, the British Am-
bassador in Ankara has received instructions to inform the Turkish
Government that Britain intends to discuss MEDO with Egypt without
further consultations with Turkey.
Comment: Egypt's army regime has given
increasing indications recently of a preference for a regional defense
arrangement less likely than MEDO to be dominated by Western nations.
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The Turkish Government has already made
overtures to Iraq to support the foundation of a defense organization
without Egypt, arguing that Egypt as a North African power might not
be essential to Middle East security.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Comment on the death of President Gottwald of Czechoslovakia:
The death of Klement Gottwalt on 14 March
will not affect the stability of the Communist regime or its relationship
with the USSR, and his successor is not expected to have any trouble
maintaining control of the party.
Premier Antonin Zapotocky, a veteran Com-
munist and one of the founders of the Czech Communist Party, is the
most logical successor. His power as premier was significantly en-
hanced in Ianuary by the concentration of government control in an inner
cabinet of nine deputy premiers under his chairmanship. Zapotocky, who
has been an outspoken exponent of vigilance and discipline and increased
industrial production, can be expected to follow the policies of Gottwald.
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