CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050129
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 5, 1953

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5 March 1953
Copy No, 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 0
f)ECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: T$ S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: --- REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SE TY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Possible succession to Stalin (page 3).
2. USSR makes trade offer to Argentina (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3, Modern Soviet radar coverage extended to Caspian Sea page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4, Li Mi positive his troops could not be evacuated from Burma (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. American Embassy charged responsible for Iranian crisis (page 5).
6. Anglo-Iranian Oil Company plans to ship Arab oil to Israel (page 6).
70 British military want to station armored brigade in Jordan (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. New difficulty arises in French-German Saar dispute (page 7).
9. British propose "extension" of NATO to 50 years (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Possible succession to Stalin:
Stalin's expected early demise focuses
attention on his two most likely successors, Molotov and Malenkov.
Molotov, by virtue of his senior position as
First Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers, has always been
ranked first after Stalin in this executive and administrative, body. He
may well reassume the position 'of chairman, a post which he held before
May 1941.
Malenkov, on the other hand, has recently
appeared to wield more actual power than any other individual in the
Soviet Union except Stalin. In view of the position which Malenkov has
attained in the party hierarchy, it is probable that, at the least, he
will become Secretary General of the Party, the most important politi-
cal position in the Soviet Union. Therefore, even as Chairman of the
Council of Ministers, Molotov could not be an effective leader without
Malenkov's backing. Ostensibly� the regime would be presented as
under two-man control in order to give a show of unanimity to the
world and to the Soviet people.
Any divided rule would in all likelihood not
endure long. Since Malenkov's power position has been steadily in-
creasing thanks to personnel and organizational changes made at the
19th Party Congress, it is believed that he is most likely to emerge
as the top Soviet leader.
2. USSR makes trade offer to Argentina:
the USSR was willing to
provide a variety of exports, including
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petroleum, agricultural machinery, equipment for petroleum exploita-
tion, chemical products, precision instruments, coal, railroad cars,
electrical machines and various raw materials. the USSR 3.3.3(h)(2)
would accept in exchange products like hides, which Argentina can easily
supnlv.
While several of the commodities listed are
being exported by the USSR to Western countries, electrical machines,
precision instruments, rolling stock, and machinery for petroleum ex-
ploitation are in short supply in the Orbit.
SOVIET UNION
3. Modern Soviet radar coverage extended to Caspian Sea:
Modern Soviet CPS-6 type radar installations 3.3(h)(2)
have been identified at Linjfakan and Yerevan
in the Armenian Republic.
Comment: These two additional locations
extend modern radar coverage, already noted on the Western approaches
to the USSR, along the southern frontier to the Caspian Sea. Similar
coverage is being developed in the Far East. The presence of these new
sites is a further indication that such equipment may be operational along
all the most important approaches to the USSR.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Li Mi positive his troops could not be evacuated from Burma:
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Nationalist commander Li Mi told Ambassador
Rankin in Taipei that his forces would not obey
orders to leave Burma because they would pre-
fer to remain there until they can return
. Li asserted that he would not transmit such
orders since he knew it would be useless.
The Nationalist guerrilla leader also set his
current strength in Burma at 26,000, with the best 14,000 troops still
located east of the Salween River and therefore close to the Thai border.
Comment: Li's belief that his troops would
be unwilling to leave Burma appears logical, although the possibility re-
mains that a token force might be withdrawn. In the light of the best
estimates currently available from other sources, however, his strength
figure of 26,000 appears highly exaggerated. The extent of Li MPs con-
trol over his troops is questionable.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. American Embassy charged responsible for Iranian crisis:
Ambassador Henderson reported on 2 March 3.3(h)(2)
that Iranian Foreign Minister Fatemi had
charged that the American Embassy was
responsible for the present difficulties in
Iran and that the Ambassador had "personally interfered several times."
Fatemi's attitude is shared by several Majlis deputies, who reportedly
believe that the Embassy encouraged the Shah to remain because the
United States had lost confidence in Prime Minister Mossadeq.
Comment: Charges by Iranian Government
leaders that the Embassy had supported Qavam during his brief regime
last July were followed by a temporary rise in anti-American sentiment.
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6. Anglo-Iranian Oil Company plans to ship Arab oil to Israel:
The British Foreign Office has recently
learned that the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company
plans to ship about 125,000 barrels of oil
from Kuwait to Israel in 1953, according
olmes in London. He gained the impression
been shipped to Israel in 1952, and that although
in 1952 from the Sheikhdom of Qatar, none is
to American inis er
that no Kuwait oil had
shipments were made
planned in 1953.
Comment: The American Consul in Haifa
previously reported that 1,800,000 barrels of Kuwait oil were shipped
to Israel in 1952 via South Africa. If the Arabs learn of these trans-
actions, more anti-Western sentiment will develop and some retaliatory
action may be taken.
7. British military want to station armored brigade in Jordan:
The Chief of the British Imperial General
Staff is pressing for his government's
approval of a War Office plan to station
an armored brigade in Jordan. The Jordan-
ian overnmen agree o this proposal during recent conversations
with the Commander in Chief of the British Middle East land forces.
Comment: The proposed move is part of the
War Office plans for evacuating troops from Suez. In addition, among
other arrangements, the current plans include retaining 5,000 troops
at the Canal base and dividing one infantry division between Cyprus and
Libya.
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. New difficulty arises in French-German Saar dispute:
West German Chancellor Adenauer states
that in his private talks with the French
Foreign Minister in Rome last week, Bidault
maintained that any Saar boundary settlement
now should be permanent, despite Schuman's previous agreement that a
final determination of the boundaries would await a German peace treaty.
Adenauer declares that this "unacceptable" position would provide a
precedent for the permanent detachment of the Oder-Neisse territories
from Germany.
Adenauer also expressed to US High Com-
missioner Conant his distrust of Bidault's intentions toward the European
army project.
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Comment: Bidault recently gave the impres-
sion in London that he might be using the Saar issue as a means of defeat-
ing the EDC treaty.
9. British propose "extension" of NATO to 50 years:
Britain has offered to extend its guarantee of
assistance to the EDC to 50 years if the North
Atlantic Treaty is extended for an "additional
30 years."
French Foreign Minister Bidault prefers a
definite commitment of British forces, a pledge which the British For-
eign Office refuses to make.
Comment: "Extension" of the North Atlantic
Treaty, which specifies no time limit, would involve revision of Article
13, providing that signatories may reconsider their membership after 20
years.
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