CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/02/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050127
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: February 28, 1953

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28 February 1953
opy No.59
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Britain favors greatest caution in Western policy toward USSR (page 3).
2. Chinese Communist agency preparing against possible transshipment
controls (page 3).
3. Burma to avoid service on controversial UN committees (page 4).
SOVIET UNION
4. Soviet Union extends distribution of new MIG (page 4).
FAR EAST
5. Ambassador Murphy concerned over possible ban on Japanese fishing
operations (page 5).
6. Another Chinese army may have entered Korea (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
7. Taipei denies reports of depredations by Li Mrs troops (page 6).
SOUTH ASIA
8. Comment on anti-government demonstrations in Karachi (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Anti-Western trend in Iraq endangers acceptance of MEDO (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey still favor definite defense commitment
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
11. Portugal cancels aircraft commitments to SHAPE (page 8).
12. Italian deficits seen threat to European trade liberalization (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Britain favors greatest caution in Western policy toward USSR:
The British Foreign Office has reaffirmed
to the American Embassy in London that
Foreign Secretary Eden believes Western
policy toward the Soviet Union at the present
tine s ou e one o greatest caution. The Foreign Office feels
that the Soviet regime's fear of the United States is probably sharper
than ever before, and that the Western powers must recognize that
Moscow may now regard war as increasingly probable.
2. Chinese Communist agency preparing against possible transshipment
controls:
A considerable part of China's strategic im-
ports from Western Europe moves through the free ports to Gdynia
and is shipped in Soviet Orbit vessels from there to China.
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3. Burma to avoid service on controversial UN committees:
Burma has instructed its UN delegation not 3.3(h)(2)
to serve again on the Collective Measures
Committee or on any committee which might
replace it. The delegation is also not to par-
ticipate in any committee investigating bacteri-
ological warfare charges, but is to support its
formation.
Comment: The Collective Measures Com-
mittee, established in 1950 to stay means of meeting aggression, has
consistently encountered Soviet opposition. The appointment of a com-
mittee of "neutral" states to investigate the Soviet bacteriological war-
fare charges is strongly supported by the West.
SOVIET UNION
4. Soviet Union extends distribution of new MIG:
3.3(h)(2)
on 13 February,_ 12 .aireraft,
either lVIIG-17's or 19's, were scheduled for local
area flights in the Sevastopol area. Subordina-
tion of the aircraft could not be determined.
Comment: The identification of MIG-19's in
the Black Sea Air Force would represent the first known allocation of
this aircraft to the Soviet naval air arm.
The MIG-19, which is probably in quantity
production, has already been operating in widely separated parts of
the USSR, including the Far East.
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FAR EAST
5, Ambassador Murphy concerned over possible ban on Japanese fishing
operations:
Ambassador Murphy believes that a contem- 3.3(h)(2)
plated order from the UN Command barring
all Japanese fishing vessels from the Korean
Sea Defense Zone is likely to put the Japanese
Government in a difficult position and arouse anti-American feeling.
He points out that it has been assumed in Japan that the UN Command
would prevent further seizures of ships by the South Koreans and per-
mit Japanese vessels access to the zone.
Comment: Japan and the United States do
not recognize the "Rhee line," arbitrarily established by South Korea
to keep Japanese vessels away from their prewar fishing grounds.
The Japanese have previously understood that the UN would warn
their vessels found within the Sea Defense Zone, which roughly is
bounded by the "Rhee line," only when their presence interfered
with military operations.
6. Another Chinese army may have entered Korea:
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a new Chinese unit, presumably
an army, joined the 9th Army Group and is
located in west central Korea.
Comment: This increases to seven the num-
ber of new armies believed to have entered Korea since September,
three of which have been identified in contact on the Korean front.
During this same period, there have been indications that four armies
have left Korea.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
7. Taipei denies reports of depredations by Li Mi's troops:
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The Mi.nister of National Defense in Taipei 3.3(h)(2)
states that reports from General Li Mi's
headquarters in Burma indicate that his
troops are not responsible for the recent
depredations charged to them by the Burmese. He says some attacks
were mounted by Chinese Communist units from Yunnan masquerading
as Nationalists, and that various others, if they actually occurred,
were made by irregular groups over which Li MI has little or no
control.
Comment: Reports have been received of
Chinese Communist penetration of Nationalist bands in order to en-
courage attacks on Burmese forces, but there is no firm evidence that
Chinese Communists have operated as units across the Sino-Burmese
border. It has been reported that Li Mi exercises effective control
over only 2,000 of the 72000 to 10,000 Nationalist troops in Burma.
SOUTH ASIA
8. Comment on anti-government demonstrations in Karachi:
_ _ _
Demonstrations in Karachi on 27 February
by members of an all-Moslem parties convention, which apparently
represents reactionary elements opposed to the secular state and to
Foreign Minister Zafrullah Khan, suggest that the success of leftist-
led student riots last January has encouraged other anti-government
groups to resort to "direct action."
Coming at a time when the Pakistani Govern-
ment is under criticism for its handling of such important issues as
Kashmir, the proposed national constitution, and the recent food
shortage, these demonstrations will increase restlessness throughout
the country.
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Though the strong police and military
measures taken in Karachi will probably quell active unrest, anti-
government agitation may be expected to clintinue. The Govern-
ment's failure immediately to suppress future outbreaks would
provide further evidence of its weakness and could lead to its fall.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Anti-Western trend in Iraq endangers acceptance of MEDO:
The anti-Western trend in Iraq is so strong 3.3(h)(2)
that pro-Western and politically powerful
General Nun i Said will have great difficulty
making MEDO acceptable to the public, ac-
cording to US Ambassador Berry in Baghdad.
This trend may force the Iraqi Government
to ask Britain to evacuate its two air bases if it agrees to withdraw
from the Suez Canal zone, in the opinion of the Iraqi UN delegate.
Comment: Pro-British General Nun i might
be able to pilot MEDO through the present Iraqi Parliament, which is
amenable to his control. Nevertheless, the aroused public remains
unsatisfied by events since the November Baghdad riots and might
repudiate such action, as it did in 1948 a proposed revision of the
Anglo-Iraqi treaty.
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Yugoslavia Greece and Turkey still favor definite defense commitment:
Ambassador Peurifoy reports that all
signatories of the Greek-Turkish-Yugoslav
pact of friendship still wish that it had in-
cluded a firm defense commitment. Greek
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Foreign Minister Stephanopoulos quoted his Yugoslav colleague,
Popovic, as critical of "great power" opposition to such a com-
mitment, which he said showed they "do not fully understand the�
importance of this part of the world or the necessity of organizing
its defense on a concrete and firm basis."
WESTERN EUROPE
11. Portugal cancels aircraft commitments to SHAPE:
Portugal has informed the NATO Annual
Review Committee that it has cancelled
its contribution of two air squadrons to
SHAPE. This decision was apparently
based on the assumption that the MDAP
jet deliveries program for Portugal is being reduced from five to
three squadrons.
Comment: The Portuguese Government
stated last July that it would rather abandon NATO than agree to
the proposed cut. In November it informed its NATO representative
that curtailment of Portugal's air force program would also necessi-
tate cancellation of its SHAPE commitment of two army divisions.
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The Portuguese have intimated, furthermore,
that failure to raise the squadron total eventually to seven may jeopard-
ize the Azores defense agreement with the United States,
12. Italian deficits seen threat to European trade liberalization:
Ambassador Bunker believes that if Italy's 3.3(h)(2)
heavy deficit in the European Payments Union
continues, it will have to withdraw from the
effort to liberalize European trade very soon,
despite the political problems raised by the approaching
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national elections. This development, following British and French
trade restrictions, would seriously impair current United States
efforts for European economic integration.
Comment: Italy's trade deficit of nearly
one billion dollars in 1952 vartri largest in its history and its
current deficit in the EPU threatens to exhaust the Italian surplus
by May. These factors, plus increased unemployment which is
partly caused by trade stagnation, have led to more insistent demands
for an abandonment of the trade liberalization program.
French Foreign Minister Bidault is reported
to have turned down Prime Minister de Gasperi's request of 26 Febru-
ary that increased Italian imports be permitted.
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