CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/02/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050120
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: February 18, 1953

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18 February 1953
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DOCUMENTG NO.
C S
CLASS. CI-4ANGED TO T_S_Verto____
NO CHANE IN LAS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
NEXT REVIEW DATE: --
ALITH: 70-2 2.r/
DATE: REVIEWER
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Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. New unit in South China may be 42nd Army from Korea (page 3).
2. Peiping announces $10 billion budget for 1953 (page 3).
3. Chinese Nationalist commander in Burma to be recalled for
consultation (page 4).
4.
5.
6.
7.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Heavy Tudeh infiltration of Iranian Air Force reported (paae 5).
buaanese 'Ratters entnusiastic over Anglo-Egyptian agreement kpage 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East Germans reportedly preparing for mass-production of
MIG-15% (page 7).
9. EDC delegations expect ultimate acceptance of modified French
protocols (page 7).
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FAR EAST
1. New unit in South China may be 42nd Army from Korea:
the Chinese
Communist 42nd Army, which withdrew from
Korea about 10 November, has arrived in
South China. There are indications that the
components of this army are located in an
area east of Canton occupied by the 44th Army before its recent move
to Korea.
Comment: This report is the best indication
to date of a Chinese Communist intention to bring battle-trained troops
from Korea to South China. As several armies have recently moved
from that area to Korea, additional replacements from Korea are ex-
pected to arrive in South China in the near future.
2. Peiping announces $10 billion budget for 1953:
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Communist China's 1953 budget, announced 3.3(h)(2)
in a 16 February statement, totals an equiva-
lent of nearly $10 billion at the official rate of
exchange, or almost $7 billion at free market
rates. Projected revenues will equal expenses. "National defense" ex-
penditures are to constitute 22.38 percent of the total, according to the
statement.
Comment: Although the 1953 budget calls
for two to three times the estimated annual expenditures prior to the
Korean war, it does not differ appreciably from estimated budget figures
in 1952. The expanded 1952 budget resulted in some inflationary pressures,
and Peiping was forced to devalue its currency by about 10 percent late in
the year. Despite this evidence of strain, the economy continued fairly
stable, and there was no imminent threat of runaway inflation.
This is the first time that Peiping has announced
total government revenues and expenditures in absolute figures.
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3. Chinese Nationalist commander in Burma to be recalled for consultation:
General Li Mi, commander of Chinese Nationa3.3(h)(2)
ist forces in Burma, is being recalled to Taipei
for consultation. Chiang Xai-shek reportedly
feels that he must reserve his decision on the
possible withdrawal or the troops until he has talked with LL
4.
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Comment: Chiang has been informed of the
United States Government's view that the Nationalist troops should be
withdrawn from Burma. In the opinion of the American Ambassador in
Rangoon, any further delay in their withdrawal will seriously jeopardize
relations between the United States and Burma.
It is questionable how much control Li Mi still
exerts over his widely scattered 7,000 to 10,000 troops.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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5. Heavy Tudeh infiltration of Iranian Air Force reported:
6.
General Guilanshah, chief of staff of the
Iranian Air Force, recently advised the
American Embassy that more than 250
noncommissioned officers in the air force
technical brigade are suspected of Tudeh activity. Three were arrested
on 8 February and charged with giving the Soviet Union information on
air force plans for action in case of internal disorders.
Guilanshah wants to purge all the suspected
Tudeh members, but he can get no action from the army chief of staff,
who must approve all air force orders.
Comment
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The American Consulate in Tabriz reported
in late January that there had been widespread arrests of local army
officers and enlisted men for suspected Tudeh activity.
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Sudanese leaders enthusiastic over Anglo-Egyptian agreement:
The Sudanese are enthusiastic over the
recent Anglo-Egyptian agreement, and
many leaders have expressed the belief
that the United States was responsible
for the settlement, according to the
American Liaison Officer in Khartoum.
The officer adds that Wing Commander
Zulfikar Sabri, an Egyptian representative in Khartoum, has a fair
chance of obtaining Sudanese political support for an election plan
which would lead to a coalition government of the major parties.
Comment: This is the first clear indica-
tion that the agreement, which was well received in the Arab League
states, has gained the strong support of the Sudanese themselves.
The present atmosphere augurs well for an orderly transition to
independence, even though many complex problems still remain.
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. East Germans reportedly preparing for mass-production of MIG-15's.:
The East German Aeronautical Research
Institute at Prina has reportedly received
complete plans for the manufacture of the
MIG-15 jet fighter and is working on the
translation of the blueprints into German and the designing of factory
equipment for mass production.
Soviet General Lukin and Dr. Bruno Baade,
an East German aeronautical engineer formerly employed in a research
center in the USSR, recently selected plants appropriate for manufac-
turing aircraft and components.
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Comment: Baade, a capable engineer and
administrator, is said to be under consideration for the future post of
East German Air Minister, reports of the construction of air- 3.3(h)(2)
craft factories and jet engine plants were received last summer. Jet
engine manufacture was to have started at Ludwigsfelde on 1 January
1953.
MIG-15's are being produced in Czecho-
slovakia, and assembly of components produced in the Soviet Union
is reportedly about to begin in Poland.
9. EDC delegations expect ultimate acceptance of modified French
protocols:
The consensus of the chiefs of the EDC 3.3(h)(2)
delegations is that their governments will
accept the French-proposed protocols to
the treaty in modified form "after difficult
negotiations, "and that France will probably try to prolong them. The
delegates agree that the letter of the treaty has been generally observed
in the protocols, but the "European spirit" of the treaty weakened.
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Ambassador Dunn in Paris reports that
French military and conservative elements seem to believe that
delay in ratification favors France and that the United States has
no choice but to rely on France as the keystone of European defense.
Comment: Those elements in France
which had been willing to accept EC from fear of a German national
army under American sponsorship are reconsidering in view of
recent American assurances that no alternative to the EDC is
envisioned.
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