CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/02/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050117
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: February 13, 1953

.Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117'
TOP SE" "
SECU N FORMATION
13 February 1953
Copy No� 59
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
40
� DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:2_1,:xet___
AUTH: HR 70-2
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
DATE: tc.W-1-1 REVIEWER:
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP RET
ITY INFORMATION
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
SrEC1ET
3.5(c)
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on Soviet diplomatic break with Israel (page 3).
2. Peiping seeks insurance against confiscation of British machinery
purchases (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. Further coordination of Soviet-Satellite armed forces suggested
(page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Improved jet fighters reported in Manchuria (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. French commander comments on military situation in Indochina
(page 5).
6. British told Indonesia will conclude rice-rubber agreement with
Communist China (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian tribes reported restive (page 6).
8. Egypt issues unrealistic strategic evaluation of Suez Canal (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Austrian vulnerability to propaganda against strategic materials
controls cited (page 7).
10. Britain to support tighter East-West trade controls (page 8).
11. EDC ratification linked to 50-year American commitment to
NATO (page 9).
2
3.5(c)
TO RET
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2619/06/26 CO2050117
RET
GENERAL
1. Comment on Soviet diplomatic break with Israel:
The bombing of the Soviet Legation in
Tel Aviv provided the Kremlin with a convenient excuse for the
break in relations which was preceded by violent Soviet propaganda
attacks on the Israeli Government,.
The expulsion of the Israeli diplomats
from Moscow increases the likelihood that they may be implicated
directly in charges of Zionist plotting. This would permit the "dis-
closure" of the hitherto missing high-level link between Zionist sub-
version inside the USSR and British and American intelligence.
Some of the Satellites may be expected to
follow Moscow's lead in breaking relations with Israel.
While Israeli officials in past weeks sharply
denounced recent Soviet anti-Zionism, they did not advocate breaking
relations, chiefly because of the more than 2,500,000 Jews behind the
Iron Curtain. Moscow's decision forces the Ben-Gurion government
from its neutralist position and removes any bargaining power which
might have accrued from such an attitude.
The Israeli Communist Party, some of
whose activities have already been restricted, may be banned; a small
hard core will in any event remain underground. Limited overt activity
may be conducted by the left-wing splinter group which recently was ex-
pelled by the MA PAM party.
2. Peiping seeks insurance against confiscation of British machinery
purchases:
3.5(c)
A British company, acting for the official 3.3(h)(2)
Chinese Communist purchasing agency, is
seeking information on the cost of insurance
- 3 -
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
against confiscation of British-made machinery scheduled for future
shipment.
he insurance would cover shipments from February
through Suly, with a total value of probably 500,000 pounds sterling.
Comment: This insurance inquiry, like
the acceleration of its purchasing activities in Western Europe, re-
flects Peiping's precautions against new interferences with its
Western trade. In this particular case, the Chinese may be antici-
pating interception of the shipment by the Chinese Nationalists.
SOVIET UNION
3. Further coordination of Soviet-Satellite armed forces suggested:
Comment: This development represents
another major step toward closer coOrdination of Soviet and Satellite
military forces. In 1952 Soviet and Satellite air warning systems were
integrated and common communications procedures were adopted by
fighter units in this area.
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
TOP RET
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
ET
FAR EAST
4. Improved jet fighters reported in Manchuria:
The Chinese Communist Air Force planned
the transfer in January of 72 MIG-19 jet
fighters to two jet fighter divisions based
in Manchuria,
the new aircraft were parked
at airfields near Anshan and Mukden in December.
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Comment; This is the first report indicating
the presence of this improved jet fighter in Manchuria. MIG49's have
� been reported at several locations in the Soviet Far East during the past
month.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. French commander comments on military situation in Indochina:
General Linares, commander of French 3.3(h)(2)
forces in Tonkin, believes that the over-all
situation in the delta is better than a year
ago, but that the Viet Minh still have important
attack capabilities. He does not expect the
ne o ma e a major move before 1 March.
Linares stated that the French stronghold
at Nasan in northwest Tonkin would be held at all costs for psycho-
logical reasons and in order to block a Viet Minh thrust into Laos.
He also said he expected five or six new Vietnamese army battalions
to be available each month, starting in June, and that these should free
regular French forces for major blows, possibly outside the delta.
Comment:� The commitment of five or six
additional Vietnamese battalions---e-ach month would not be difficult, but
reports of low morale in Vietnamese units already in Tonkin indicate
that the effectiveness of new units would be highly questionable.
- 5 -
TOP ET
.......---Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
Unless the French can re-establish their
authority over northwest Tonkin, the static defense of air-supplied
Nasan will immobilize several thousand first-class troops.
6. British told Indonesia will conclude rice-rubber agreement with
Communist China:
3.5(c)
Indonesian Ambassador Subandrio in London 3.3(h)(2)
informed the British Foreign Office on 10
February that his government felt it had no
recourse but to conclude a rubber-rice con-
tract with Communist China similar to that which the Chinese recently
negotiated with Ceylon. He said the fall in rubber prices and scarcity
of rice presented Indonesia with no other alternative.
Comment: Subandrio's statement contradicts
that made by the Indonesian Foreign Minister to Ambassador Cochran in
Djakarta on 11 February that the plan to ship rubber to China had been
abandoned.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
'7. Iranian tribes reported restive:
The American Consul in Tabriz reports 3.3(h)(2)
that Iranian Army morale in the sensitive
northwestern province of Azerbaijan is
visibly lower and that the black market
in arms is considerable. Army officers also are disturbed by reports
of tribal unrest. Despite new reports of Soviet agents among the Kurds,
tribal leaders foresee no serious trouble in the near future but are
generally pessimistic regarding the long-term outlook.
Comment:
the Kurds in as well as tribes in
- 6 -
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
ET
other parts of Iran, are maneuvering to improve their position with
respect to the Tehran government. There is no evidence, however,
of plans for immediate widespread insurrection.
Although the army units are considered
capable of controlling any localized revolt, the reluctance of pro-
vincial army commanders to undertake a widespread tribal dis-
armament program confirms other indications that the army could
not control a nationwide revolt.
8. Egypt issues unrealistic strategic.evaluation of Suez Canal:
The Egyptian Army Headquarters has
issued an evaluation of the strategic
importance of the Suez Canal to all
Egyptian military attaches "for guidance."
According to the evaluation, the canal
would be valueless in time of war since its strategic importance
depends on the security of navigation in the Mediterranean. The
estimate concludes that the presence of British troops is "mili-
tarily useless" for the defense of the canal, which "can easily be
undertaken" by the Egyptian Air Force.
Comment: The Egyptian emphasis on
the canal alone overlooks the strategic importance that the West
attaches to the existence of air and military facilities in this area.
This basic difference in approach may complicate Anglo-Egyptian
negotiations over the canal, which have reportedly achieved an
initial success.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Austrian vulnerability to propaganda against strategic materials
controls cited:
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Soviet and domestic Communist propaganda3.3(h)(2)
appears to be increasingly effective in dis-
suading the Austrian Government from
- 7 -
3.5(c)
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
cooperation in strategic materials controls. An attack by the Soviet
Information Service last week on the Austrian "liaison officer" for
East-West trade matters has resulted in his withdrawal from this
work.
The Austrian Government is now consider-
ing turning the responsibility for trade controls over to a single in-
experienced Foreign Ministry official.
Comment: There is mounting evidence of
growing Austrian reluctance to assume the political risks and economic
burdens of denying Orbit access to strategic materials. Requests for
Battle Act exceptions are becoming far more frequent, many of them
originating at the top level of the government.
10,, Britain to support tighter East-West trade controls:
The Foreign Office has informed the
American Embassy of the British
Cabinet's decision to back the adoption
by the Coordinating Committee on East-
West trade (COCOM) of both transshipment and financial controls.
This decision was made despite considerable resistance from the
Treasury and the Board of Trade, and the Foreign Office believes
that Britain will actually institute such controls only if all other
participating countries do likewise.
The American Embassy in London states
that the cabinet's action will apparently open the way for the closest
Anglo-American collaboration in COCOM for achieving a "really
significant improvement in trade controls."
Comment: British and Dutch objections
have hitherto been the main obstacles to American efforts to have
such controls adopted by COCOM; the new British decision may be
of material assistance in overcoming Dutch opposition to transship-
ment controls.
The projected controls are not, however,
likely to be fully effective since they appear to be limited to trans-
shipments by sea.
- 8 -
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
�
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
RFIT
EDC ratification linked to 50-year American commitment to NATO:
NATO Deputy Secretary General Van 3.3(h)(2)
Vredenburch believes that some European
countries may make ratification of the EDC
treaty contingent on an American commitment
o adhere or antic Treaty for 50 years. He states that the
United States could hasten ratification by such a commitment to re-
assure those EDC countries which have been concerned by the "differing
time periods" of the two treaties.
3.5(c)
Comment: A London Times editorial on the
eve of the recent French Ministers' visit to London stated that if France
wishes both treaties to last for 50 years, Britain should not object, but
that all NATO members would have to agree.
The North Atlantic Treaty has no specific
time limit, but some European countries have interpreted as a limita-
tion the article permitting signatories to reconsider their membership
after 20 years.
9
TOP
Approved for Release: 2019/06/26 CO2050117
3.5(c)