CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050107
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 30, 1952

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FORMATION
30 December 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 44
NO CHANGE IN CLASS*
CI DECLASSIFIED
MASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE/
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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REVIEWER
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. COCOM unlikely to accept controls over pharmaceuticals (page 3).
2. Moscow Embassy comments on Stalin-Reston exchange (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Comment on Peiping's Five-Year Plan announcement (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Britain prepared to break off Sudan discussions if necessary (page 5).
5. Sudanese Government alarmed by troubles in south (page 5).
6. Greece to avoid commitments in defense talks with Yugoslavia
(page 6).
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GENERAL
I. COCOM unlikely to accept controls over pharmaceuticals:
COCOM is unlikely to approve American-
proposed controls over exports of pharma-
ceuticals to the Orbit, according to the
American delegate. He believes the op-
�.omestic political considerations based on hu-
manitarian grounds and possibly from trade requirements.
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The American proposal for an interim suspension
of all export licenses for pharmaceuticals has been rejected. Britain,
however, is now prepared to continue its controls on pharmaceutical ex-
ports to China for a limited period and West Germany is willing to reduce
Its shipments.
Comment: Pharmaceuticals of American and
Western European origin continue to move in large quantities both to
China and the rest of the Soviet bloc. Britain had previously stated
,that it was abandoning controls on pharmaceuticals because of the lack
of similar restrictions by other COCOM participantso
2 Moscow Embassy comments on Stalin-Reston exchange:
The American Embassy in Moscow considers 3.3(h)(2)
that Stalin's answers to the questions of New
York Times correspondent lames Reston may
have been designed to stimulate speculation
on Soviet intentions. The Embassy points out that while interpretative
stories by foreign correspondents initially were neither delayed nor
censored, subsequent dispatches are being censored, particularly when
implying propaganda motivation.
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The Embassy notes that Soviet press coverage
does not indicate any change in Soviet policy toward real negotiation.
The statement on terminating the Korean war is the only one worthy of
exploration.
Some foreign diplomats in Moscow attach
importance to the answers on the assumption that the Kremlin considered
the questions semiofficial, according to the Embassy. The Finnish,
Burmese and Iranian representatives seized on the statements as indi-
cating a Soviet desire to relax tension and possibly reach a settlement.
The Italian Ambassador was even more emphatic in this opinion, be-
lieving that the USSR has previously created impasses on many questions
for the purpose of reaching a single over-all settlement. The French
Ambassador is more skeptical but feels that the Kremlin, with President-
elect Eisenhower's background in mind, may be tempted to try for a "re-
alistic world division on military lines."
FAR EAST
3. Comment on Peiping's Five-Year Plan announcement:
Peiping's announcement on 27 December of a
"Five-Year National Construction Plan" for China confirms previous
reports from unofficial sources that Communist China is about to in-
augurate its first long-range economic development plan on a national
scale. Although the plan is less comprehensive than those of other
Orbit countries, its formulation at this time is indicative of Peiping's
intent to 'pursue ambitious economic goals despite the possibility of
continued involvement in the Korean hostilities.
There is no indication in Peiping's statement
that the new burdens of the Five-Year Plan will incline Communist
China to a more compromising stand in the Korean truce negotiations.
On the contrary, the announcement boasts that China can undertake
economic construction while engaged in the Korean war and "come
out victorious in both fields."
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Britain prepared to break off Sudan discusssions if necessary:
The British Government insists that the
Governor General of the Sudan retain
emergency powers and responsibility
for the southern Sudan. It maintains that
the degree of Sudanization of the local administration should not be
the principal factor in deciding on self-determination in three years.
The I3ritish Ambassador in Cairo has been
instructed to regard Egyptian refus41 to accept these points as jus-
tification for breaking off negotiations.
Comment: Despite these instructions,
London remains optimistic that satisfactory compromises can be
worked out. Cairo, however, has stated that it will make no fur-
ther compromises and would be willing to return to the previous
Egyptian position of the "unity of the Nile valley."
5. Sudanese Government alarmed by troubles in south:
According to the US Liaison Officer in
Khartoum, the Sudanese Government is
endeavoring to persuade the Mandi, the
leading Sudanese political figure, to ac-
cept the British position that the Governor
General must retain special powers for the primitive south.
The Sudanese Governments fears that a
serious situation may develop in the south because of opposition
created there by visiting northern Sudanese journalists.
Comment: The current trouble in the south-
ern Sudan is a direct result of Egyptian and British differences on the
future position of the region under Sudanese self-government. Because
of the stalemate in the Anglo-Egyptian negotiations, chiefly over the
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problem of the southern Sudan, General Nagib and Colonel Nasr, an
Influential High Committee member, have publicly threatened to
end the discussions.
6. Greece to avoid commitments in defense talks with Yugoslavia:
Greece hopes to ascertain Yugoslav plans
for defending southern Yugoslavia during
the current Yugoslav-Greek defense talks
in Athens, but will avoid making any come-
mitments, according to Defense Minister Kanellopoulos. If the
Yugoslays seek commitments, the Greek representative intends to
insist that the question must be studied by his government in con-
sultation with its allies.
Comment: The Turkish-Yugoslav defense
talks held recently in Belgrade stalled on the subject of detailed
planning. Although all three governments have asserted that they
are willing to proceed, the Greek attitude suggests that, aside from
any position taken by Yugoslavia, the current talks will not materially
advance definite defense planning for the area.
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