CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02050106
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 23, 1952

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23 December 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUR INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. German ratification of Israeli agreement will bring break with
Egypt (page 3).
FAR EAST
�
2. Mao Tse-tung said to feel Peiping must follow Soviet leadership
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Iranian reaction to reported plans on oil dispute
(page 4).
4. Americans and Poles reportedly implicated with Moroccan nation-
alists (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
� 5. Moves against West Berlin reportedly under discussion in East
Germany (page 5).
LATIN AMERICA
6. Alleged revolt against Cuban Government (page 6).
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GENERAL
I. German ratification of Israeli agreement will bring break with Egypt:
A representative of the Egyptian officers'
committee told the German Ambassador in
Cairo that General Nagib will be forced to
break economic relations with West Germany
if the latter ratifies the Israeli reparations agreement, even though
such a rupture would create financial difficulties. Egypt is working
"feverishly" to become economically independent of Germany.
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The Egyptian Government is aware of Israel's
catastrophic financial situation, which can be saved only by German
reparations or American aid.
Comment: In spite of Egyptian firmness
on this issue, the West German Federal Senate has thus far shown no
inclination to postpone consideration of ratification. Moreover, no
proposal has been suggested that seems capable of changing the united
Arab stand against West German reparations to Israel.
FAR EAST
2. Mao Tse-tung said to feel Peiping must follow Soviet leadership:
gamea tne impression irom conversations
in educated circles that Mao Tse-tung feels
that Soviet aid is so important at this time
that China must follow Soviet leadership on
international issues, such as the Korean war, even at temporary cost
to national interests.
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pointing out that the current
Chinese Communist leadership was not imposed by the Kremlin,
states that some educated Chinese hope that Mao will remain in con-
trol of the party as long as possible, as they are concerned about
his possible successors.
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Comment: Even before his regime was
established in 1949, Mao made explicit its allegiance to the Soviet
Union. He stated that aid would be accepted only from the USSR,
and rejected the policy of "nationalist selfishness" exemplified by
Tito.
Mao arid his most likely successors, Liu
Shao-chi and Chou En-lai, are all publicly committed to the same
Stalinist program, and there is no known divergence in their private
views.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Iranian reaction to reported plans on oil dispute:
Iranian spokesmen have in general reacted
unfavorably to reports that the United States through the International
Bank plans to advance Iran $10090009000 to pay compensation to the
British, the loan to be repaid through the sale of oil to American com-
panies.
Tehran newspapers report that Mossadeq's
advisers consider such a plan unacceptable and that only a "competent
court" can determine the compensation due the British. Tehran polit-
ical circles reportedly assert that any decision taken without consult-
ing the Iranian Government would be worthless.
These reactions indicate that Iran may
be expected to reject any plan which does not let Iran itself deter-
mine what is due the British., On the basis of the violent demonstra-
tion previously indulged in by Mossadeq over the joint Anglo-American
effort to settle the oil dispute, a similar reaction to a new approach
would not be unlikely. On the other hand, the suggestion that the
United States is considering a large loan to Iran may encourage
Mossadeq to believe that he need only remain adamant to achieve
eventual settlement on his own terms.
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4. Americans and Poles reportedly implicated with Moroccan nationalists:
French authorities in Morocco have con- 3.3(h)(2)
fiscated secret Istiqlal records implicating
eleven Americans and four Poles in nation-
alist activities, 3.3(h)(2)
While the evidence incriminating the Poles may
be publicized during prosecution of nationalist officials, the information
incriminating the Americans reportedly will not be released for several
months.
Comment: The French Residency in
Rabat recently charged American diplomatic and military officials in
Morocco with aiding the nationalists.
Any delay in publicizing the involvement
of American nationals may be intended to discourage such activities
in the future.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Moves against West Berlin reportedly under discussion in East Germany:
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Plans for the isolation of East Berlin
from the Western sectors have reportedly
been drawn up by the East Berlin police
and are to be executed upon West Ger-
man ratification of the Bonn and Paris treaties. These plans allegedly
call for the interruption of public transport, the evacuation of sector
borders, and the barricading of streets leading to the Western sectors.
iDeputy Prime
Minister Ulbricht asserted at a recent meeting of East German
functionaries that the Soviet Union would at an appropriate time
decree that the Western Powers "lose their right" to stay in Berlin
once the contractual agreements are ratified. Communist officials
were directed to prepare to agitate for the demilitarization of Berlin
and the holding of free elections.
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Comment: While recent moves on the
perimeter of West Berlin have suggested an ultimate Communist
intention to isolate that area from East Germany, there is no pre-
sent evidence of either East German or Soviet intention directly
to challenge the Western position in I3erlin.
LATIN AMERICA
6. Alleged revolt against Cuban Government:
A well-organized revolutionary plot
against the Batista government may result
in a revolt before 1 January,
Comment: There have been recurrent
reports of attempts to assassinate Batista and overthrow his regime.
It is likely that some counterrevolutionary effort is being organized,
probably to be spearheaded by the forces of deposed president Prio,
who reportedly has been attempting to purchase arms in the United
States and Mexico.
Although there have been recent reports
� of defection by some dissatisfied army elements, Batista probably
can still count on the support of most military leaders and a great
majority of the enlisted personnel.
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