CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/02/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046542
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 9, 1952

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SECURIT4iFORMATION
9 February 1952
Copy No. cf-J
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I t DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS
NEXT REVIEW DATE: tot:10
AUTH 2,474
MIR ucorrif FICl/ICIA:rn
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURI INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Growing friction with Europeans over Battle Act expected (page 3).
FAR EAST
Communist and Nationalist Chinese clash in Yunnan -(page 3).
Rhee scores unexpected by-election victory (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Indian requirements for American food grains in 1952-53 (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iran may close foreign cultural offices in Tehran (page 6).
7. Israel expresses interest in closer military ties with the West
(page 6).
8. Greek Government plans arrest and exile of dangerous subversives
(page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Defections alarm Czechoslovak Embassy in London (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Lisbon preparations for NATO meetings marred by rumors of intra-
government split (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Growing friction with Europeans over Battle Act expected:
The United States delegate to the Coordinating
Committee on East-West trade believes that
American policy under the Battle Act is likely
to cause "considerable commotion," possibly
with serious effects on cooperation by other participating countries.
He was recently obliged to submit a modified statement on trade controls
after the original submission was severely criticized by all the other
delegates.
The European delegates objected to the
"paternal tone" of the first American statement and accused the United
States of trying to impose a unilateral interpretation of what has been
agreed upon. They also objected to the emphasis on the quid pro quo
principle and warned of the effect which the denial of American exports
to friendly countries would have on COCOM agreements.
FAR EAST
2. Communist and Nationalist Chinese clash in Yunnan:
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Vientiane,
the capital of Laos, to Saigon on 15 January
stated that engagements between Chinese
Communists and Nationalists had occurred
in the region of Renghung, Yunnan, and that the Nationalists reportedly
were victorious.
Comment: Kenghung is located in the small
strip of southern Yunnan which divides Burma and Indochina. If
true, the Nationalists in question probably entered China
from the eastern tip of Kengtung in Burma. Last summer
a force of 1000 to 1500 troops in that region which was
operating independently of General Li Mi.
conditions were unsettled on
the China side of the Sino-Burma boundary, with Nationalist troops
roaming at will throughout the area.
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3.
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4. Rhee scores unexpected by-election victory:
Government intervention, reports Ambassador
Muccio, may have occurred to some degree in
the recent ROK by-elections, in which sup-
porters of aging autocratic President Rhee made
nearly a clean sweep. Seven pro-Rhee candidates were successful in the
contest for eight vacant National Assembly seats, despite a hotly contested
campaign waged by the opposition Democratic Nationalist Party.
Comment: While the success of the pro-Rhee
candidates may have been partly due to actions of the ROK police under
Rhee's notorious Home Minister "Montana" Chang and to Youth Corps
"goon squads," Rhee's prestige played the major part in the victory.
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The National Assembly has been locked in a
power struggle with the President for a long time. Recently there has
been some speculation that Rhee's chances for reelection to the
Presidency have decreased. This manifestation of popular support,
however, should create a considerable desire to climb on Rhee's
bandwagon prior to the Assembly's election of. a new presidentthis June.
SOUTH ASIA
. Indian requirements for American food grains in 1952-53:
The Planning Commission in New Delhi esti-
mates that for the year beginning 1 July 1952,
India will require from the United States
2,180,000 long tons of food grains in addition
to quotas allotted to it under international agreements.
Of this total, the Indian Food Ministry has
earmarked funds to purchase 778,000 tons. In order to conserve dollar
exchange, the Planning Commission has suggested that another 675,000
tons, worth 65 million dollars, be granted to India under an aid program
similar to that recently advocated by US Ambassador Bowles. No sug-
gestion has yet been made about financing the remaining 727,000 tons,
which would cost approximately 70 million dollars.
Comment The United States and the Commu-
nist Orbit are the two sources best able to supply India with the needed
food supplies. Indications are that the United States will receive the
first request for a grant or loan of most, if not all, of the 135 million
dollars worth of grain for which India has not already allocated funds.
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In 1951, while the United States was considering
an Indian request for 190 million dollars worth of American grain, the
USSR and Communist China achieved a propaganda victory by offering
grain at reduced prices to India and by making delivery prior to the
arrival of the first American food ship.
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This year the Communist Orbit is in a position
to repeat last year's performance and has already indicated its willing-
ness to do so. Furthermore, Indian Communists have recently shown
unexpected strength in the national elections in the food-deficit states
of southern India; unlike last year they are now in a position to debate
food issues in both state assemblies and the national Parliament.
NEAR EAST.- AFRICA
6. Iran may close foreign cultural offices in Tehran:
The Iranian Government is seriously considering3.3(h)(2)
the closing of foreign cultural and information
offices in Tehran, as well as the provinces.
Although the government has assured the US
Embassy that the order closing provincial offices was aimed at the British
and Russians, not at the United States, the Embassy believes that ex-
tension of this policy to Tehran would indicate an anti-foreign policy
rather than one simply anti-British or anti-Soviet.
Comment: The Iranian Government's policy
of obtaining public support through the promotion of anti-British sentiment
has already led it to take increasingly severe measures against foreign
activities. The need to continue such a policy as well as the growing
xenophobia which it has helped create may well induce the government to
take further steps against foreigners.
7. Israel expresses interest in closer military ties with the West:
The Israeli Foreign Minister has informed
General Eisenhower that Israel is directly
interested in the proposed Middle East Command
because Arab hostility has isolated the Jewish
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state from neighboring countries. He pointed 3.3(h)(2)
out that Israel's trained manpower reserves
and expanding industrial potential would be very
useful to the West. He suggested that his country
should be given a separate and special position in the Middle East Com-
mand which would guarantee Israeli territory against any Arab threat.
The Israeli Prime Minister has also proposed
to Britain that "concrete plans might well be initiated now" to establish
closer Anglo-Israeli ties. The British Embassy in Washington has in-
formed the Department of State that Britain may soon send an exploratory
mission to Tel Aviv to discuss matters of strategic interest to both countries.
Comment: This is the clearest indication to
date that the Israeli Government actually desires closer alignment with
the West. Strengthened Western ties would assure Israel protection
against any Arab threat as well as Western help in solving its desperate
economic problems.
8. Greek Government plans arrest and exile of dangerous subversives:
Greek authorities are preparing a list of 150
Communists and other subversives for arrest
and exile in the near future. The list includes
some persons who have been released recently
from prison. The government hopes this action will isolate the more
dangerous elements.
Comment: The program appears designed not
only to increase internal stability but also to refute opposition charges
of government laxity in screening the political prisoners it has released
since taking office.
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EASTERN EUROPE
9. Defections alarm Czechoslovak Embassy in London:
The Czech Embassy in London in late January
requested its Foreign Office to permit the
immediate return to London of Czech Ambassa-
dor Ullrich, who was then attending the UN
sessions in Paris.
On 23 January, following the first defection,
Ullrich authorized the First Secretary to establish a board of inquiry
to grill all Czech employees of the Embassy.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Lisbon preparations for NATO meetings marred by rumors of intra-
government split:
Persistent rumors of serious disagreements
between the followers of President Lopes and
Premier Salazar are given credence by the
Brazilian Embassy in Lisbon, which cites as
an instance of government uneasiness the
recent arrest of prominent opposition leaders, monarchists, and even
persons recently connected with the regime.
The Embassy stresses the possible consequences
of this unrest in view of the approaching meeting of the North Atlantic
Council in Lisbon.
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Comment: There has been no indication of
direct conflict between President Lopes and Premier Salazar, although
there is disagreement among their followers over foreign policy and
the question of military influence in the government. While Salazar
consented to General Lopes candidacy for president for the sake of
party unity, he may be concerned about the recent policy of ruthless
suppression of opposition activities allegedly sponsored by extremist
military elements.
Although the opposition is unlikely to be able
to create serious disturbances, the forthcoming NATO conference in
Lisbon could have serious repercussions in Portugal. The government,
which may be called upon to modify still further its position on Portugal's
defense role, would then have to enlist the support of the "nationalist"
elements. These share Salazar's fears that Portugal, at the insistence
of Defense Minister Santos Costa, has already made more concessions
than were necessary.
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