CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/02/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046540
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 6, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/08 CO2046540
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SEC INFORMATION
6 February 1952
Copy No. 4J
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Australian troop commitment to Middle East Command anticipated
(page 3).
EASTERN EUROPE
2. Proposed Trieste elections would benefit Yugoslavia (page 3).
WESTERN EUROPE
3. West Germans seek Anglo-American intervention in Saar dispute
(page 4).
4. French Defense Minister hints at resignation if budget is inadecivate
(page 4).
SCANDINAWA
5. Norway urges closer Western cooperation with Sweden (page 5).
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GENERAL
I. Australian troop commitment to Middle East Command anticipated!
The Australian Cabinet is reconsidering its
policy of opposition to the advance com-
mitment of forces to the Middle East Command.
From conversation with the Prime Minister,
the US Charge in Canberra inferred that the cabinet discussion is not
merely on principle but involves the specific commitment of forces.
The Prime Minister was of the opinion that a decision would be reached
in about two weeks.
Comment: Australia's limited defense es-
tablishment would permit the commitment of little more than a token
force to the Middle East. There is no indication that the government
is prepared to propose a national conscription bill, passage of which
would be prerequisite to the commitment Of a sizeable force,
EASTERN EUROPE
2. Proposed Trieste elections would benefit Yugoslavia:
3.3(h)(2)
Ambassador Allen in Belgrade states thatthe 3.3(h)(2)
Allied Military Government's proposal to hold
elections in Zone A under an Italian electoral
law concurrently with local elections in Italy
this spring may be prejudicial to long-term Italian interests, since it
will provide the Yugoslays with a strong pretext for the further absorption
of Zone B into Yugoslavia. Allen believes that the Yugoslays may be
expected to take full advantage of any opportunity to push for a terri-
torial settlement based on giving Zone A to Italy and Zone B to Yugoslavia.
Comment: Since a majority of the Slovenes
in Zone A are pro-Cominformist, Yugoslavia would prefer a partition
on the basis of the present zonal demarcation to one which would trade
predominantly Italian portions of Zone B for predominantly Slovene
portions of Zone A.
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WESTERN EUROPE
3. West Germans seek Anglo-American intervention in Saar dispute:
West German officials now suggest that the
United States and Britain jointly ask Bonn
and Paris to discuss bilaterally a solution
to the Saar question which would be submitted
to the Saar population for approval. The formula for agreement should
be based on transforming the Saar into an international territory,
which, the German officials hope, would include a "small parcel of
French territory."
The Germans suggest that the Anglo- American
statement be made prior to the European Defense Community debates
in the West German Parliament; that it call upon both France and
West Germany to refrain from further polemics on the Saar question;
and that it stipulate that the status quo be preserved in the Saar pending
the outcome of the bilateral discussions.
3.3(h)(2)
French diplomats state that their government
will not accept any cession of French territory as a condition of settlement.
Comment: Chancellor Adenauer is trying
vigorously, to obtain some kind of conciliatory gesture from the West
prior to the 7 February German parliamentary debates to which he has
now irrevocably committed himself. Coalition leaders have indicated
that if no conciliatory move is obtained the Parliament will probably pass
a resolution sanctioning continued talks on the European befense Community,
but with an admonition that Germany must obtain "satisfaction" in any
resolution of the Saar and NATO membership problems.
4. French Defense Minister hints at resignation if budget is inadequate:
French Defense Minister Bidault declares
that he might resign should the 1952 military
budget be limited to the present prospective
maximum of about 3, 7 billion dollars; he
estimates that an increase of approximately one-third is necessary in
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order to meet NATO requirements. He believes, however, that France's
military budget will in any case exceed the 3. 4 billion dollars which
NATO has considered the largest feasible under present political conditions.
While Bidault considers that an extension of the
military service period to 24 months may eventually be possible, he
warns that this would have far-reaching implications for the entire popu-
lation, since France, unlike other European countries, allows no deferments.
Comment: American officials in France recent-
ly concluded that no French government would be likely to press for a
military budget greater than 3. 4 billion dollars, exclusive of US aid.
The government has advised the National Assembly, however, that a
final budget figure would not be proposed until the NATO Council Meeting
at Lisbon this month has considered levels of defense effort and financial
contributions.
SCANDINAVIA
5. Norway u,rges closer Western cooperation with Sweden:
The Norwegian representative at a meeting of
the NATO Council Deputies expressed his
country's belief that Sweden cannot be won
from its present formal neutrality, and urged
that Sweden be considered a "sort of member" of the North Atlantic
Community. In support of closer cooperation he emphasized Swedish
military capabilities and asserted that Swedish leaders are in sympathy
with NATO objectives.
The British Deputy expressed identicip views
and warned against any NATO initiative toward closer military collabo-
ration, maintaining that this would only increase Swedish resistance to
the evolution of an informal link with NATO.
Comment: Norway has consistently argued
that it is in the West's interest to give Sweden the assistance necessary
to ensure a militarily strong power on Norway's eastern frontier. Both
Britain and Norway have always contended that Sweden cannot be pressed
into abandoning its policy of neutrality.
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