CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/02/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046537
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 2, 1952

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SECJfflTY INFORMATION
2 February 1952
L.opy No. 49
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURJ INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Indian Charge receives cool response to praise of Peiping regime
(page 3).
2. Bao Dai suggests he succeed De Lattre (page 3).
3. Burma to prepare "watertight"appeal to the UN (,
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on the UN's new attempt to solve the Kashmir problem
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Britain developing new proposals for Anglo-Egyptian negotiations
(page 5).
6. Egyptian Prime Minister favors "quick action" on dispute with Britain
(page 6).
7. Comment on the visit of the Greek Deputy Prime Minister to 'Turkey
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Italian Communists plan to exploit rightist opposition to NATO
(page 7).
9. France demands limit on German armament production (page 8).
10. Saar issue threatens Adenauer Government (page 9).
11. FrenchCommunists propagandize for east-west trade (page 9).
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FAR EAST
1. Indian Charge receives cool response to praise of Peiping regime:
The Peiping press quotes Indian Charge
Kaul, at the Indian National Day reception
in Peiping on 26 january, as praising the
"mighty achievements" of Communist
China and as lauding Mao Tse-tung as
"one of the greatest leaders of Asia and the world and a great
friend of India." In contrast, Chinese Communist Commander-
in-Chief Chu Teh's response conveyed merely the conventional
"warm greetings" to the Government of India.
Comment: Peiping's cool response on
this occasion is in contrast to last year's reception, when Mao Tse-
tung was present and spoke more warmly of Sino-Indian friendship.
The Peiping regime has since then appeared indifferent to, or even
contemptuous of, Indian gestures of friendship.
�
20 Bao Dai suggests he succeed De Lattre:
In an interview with American Minister
Heath, Bao Dai said that a "dangerous
stalemate of incompatibility" had been
reached with the French and that France
must cease s annoying interventions" in internal political matters.
He also asserted that it was time the French declared their true
aims in Vietnam: he hoped that they did not contemplate a return
to colonialism.
Bao Dai further stated that General de
Lattre had wanted him to succeed to the positions of Commander
In Chief and High Commissioner, Bao Dai declared himself ready
to assume the responsibilities of these positions. Heath believes
that such a step might break the political impasse.
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Comment: The French have repeatedly
rejected far less drastic proposals for increased Vietnamese
authority than the one proposed by Bao Dal.. De Lathe's combined
military and political responsibilities extended to the states of
Cambodia and Laos, which are governed by their own sovereigns
and owe no allegiance to Bao Dai.
3. Burma to prepare "watertight" appeal to the UN: .
The Burmese Foreign Office on 25 January
requested its chief delegate to the UN
meeting in Paris to return to Rangoon
"as soon as possible" to assist in pre-
paring a "watertight" report of Nationalist
activities for presentation to the United Nations. The action
followed the return of the Foreign Minister from the Shan States
where he was distressed at the plight of the population under the
depredations of the Chinese Nationalists.
Comment: Both the chief UN delegate
and the Burmese Ambassador in Washington have previously
counselled against bringing the matter formally to the UN's at-
tention until after the current General Assembly session. The
UN delegate, however, recommended that if an appeal were to
be made soon, the Burmese Governmenticarefully document its
case and send witnesses to the UN to testify.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on the UN's new attempt to solve the Kashmir problem:
India's present attitude is not conducive
to settlement of the Kashmir situation. On the eve of UN Repre-
sentative Dr. Frank Graham's departure for the subcontinent for
another two months,there is no indication that India is yetprepared
to give ground on any major point in the, dispute.
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Indian press reaction has been sympathetic
to Soviet delegate Malik's UN speech of 17 January, in which he
accused the United States and Great Britain of bad faith and advocated
settlement of the Kashmir question by a Kashmiri Constituent As-
sembly. Conversely, press reaction to the publication on 21 January
of General Devers' proposal for demilitarization of Kashmir was
bitterly critical. In fact, several papers commented that this plan,
which was shown to Pakistan but not to India prior to publication,
seemed to provide documentary support for Malik's charges of Anglo-
American duplicity in dealing with India.
�
American Ambassador Bowles reports that
on 29 January he found Prime Minister Nehru and Foreign Secretary
Menon reticent and resentful as a result of a recent forthright British
approach calling upon the Indian Government to prove its sincerity by
demonstrating its will to cooperate on Kashmir.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Britain developing new proposals for Anglo-Egyptian negotiations:
The British Foreign Office now favors
preliminary negotiations with Egypt on the
varied problems of Anglo-Egyptian relations,
to be followed by British-French-American-
Turkish-Egyptian discussion of the Middle East Command proposal.
Britain is aware that a flexible agenda for the preliminary talks will
be necessary and that it will probably not be possible to exclude the
question of the Sudan.
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The Foreign Office realizes that concessions
on the Sudan would greatly aid the defense negotiations, but believes
"It is no good solving a trouble spot in one area by creating a trouble
spot in another area." Officials still deny that recognition of Farouk's
title as King of the Sudan is necessary to obtain a defense agreement.
They are suggesting that the Governor General of the Sudan consult
with Sudanese leaders in order to discover some concessions that
Britain could make.
Comment: These suggested new moves
would represent a small advance from the consistently cautious position
held by the British in recent weeks.
. Egyptian Prime Minister favors "quick action"vn dispute with Britain:
Egyptian Prime Minister Ali Maher has told
the American Ambassador in Cairo that he
is very much interested in "quick action" on
the Anglo-Egyptian controversy and is hopeful
that a settlement can be reached "very soon." He emphasized, however,
that no agreement is possible unless Farouk is recognized as King of
the Sudan. He further stated that the British "base" must be moved
out of Egypt and that a solution of the dispute with Britain must precede
any attention to domestic social reforms.
The French Ambassador in Cairo has dis-
counted the British contention that recognition of the Sudan title would
result in riots and civil disorders in the Sudan. He added that if the
opportunity now existing for negotiating a settlement is not seized, it
will not come again.
Comment: The American Ambassadors in
Cairo and London also agree that negotiations should be opened quickly.
While both Britain and Egypt have made
conciliatory gestures, neither has yet given any indication that it is
prepared to make genuine concessions.
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7. Comment on the visit of the Greek Deputy Prime Minister to Turkey:
The current visit of Greek Deputy Prime
Minister Venizelos to Turkey is not expected to result in anyformal
agreement but will contribute to the solution of common problems
and facilitate the cooperation of the two countries in NATO. As a
gesture of good will, the visit will also help to allay traditional
Greek-Turkish enmity.
The only problem expected to receive
specific attention is that of the periodic violation by Greek fishermen
of Turkish territorial waters, which has led to frequent bitterness
between the governments in the past. Previous reports indicated
that Venizelos might make a definite proposal for a joint defense of
the Balkan and Turkish area. The impending entrance of Greece and
Turkey into NATO, however, makes it doubtful that such proposals
would lead to any specific military discussions at the present time.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Italian Communists plan to exploit rightist opposition to NATO:
The Italian Communist Party, in preparation 3.3(h)(2)
for local elections in the spring, intends to
concentrate on opposition to NATO and defense
of "national independence." The Communists
will exploit the differences not only among Premier de Gasperi's
Christian Democrats but also within the neo-fascist Italian Social
Movement, where a considerable group is strongly opposed to NATO.
To this end, Communist agents are working within the Italian Social
Movement under the supervision of a member of the Italian Commu-
nist Politburo.
Competent observers consider that the Italian
Communist Party may become the strongest political party because of
the differences among the non-Communists.
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Comment: Italy's support of NATO is
largely confined to political leaders. The people as a whole are
apathetic.
The anti-NATO sentiment within the Italian
Social Movement is particularly important since the weakened Christian
Democrats are reportedly turning to the extreme right for political
support Vatican leaders and others are increasingly apprehensive
overthe diminishing popular support of Christian Democratic policies,
Including the alliance with the West.
9. France demands limit on German armament production:
France will accept a German military 3.3(h)(2)
contribution to Western defense only if
it can be sure that the United States will
not permit Germany to regain its position
as a 'great military arsenal," according to the French High Com-
missioner. The Commissioner points out that France continues to
be disquieted because it believes that the United States is pressing
for German arms manufacture, � and he feels that there can be no sense
of security in France or Europe unless the US guarantees that Germany
will not exceed its armament production quota.
Chancellor Adenauer recently hinted to the
US High Commissioner that the Germans may accept some armament
production restrictions under NATO, but the Commissioner warns
that this may be just another attempt by Adenauer to obtain NATO
membership for Germany.
Comment: The question of security controls
over German armament production is still the basic obstacle to agree-
ment on the European Defense Community and on German participation
In Western defense. The French refuse to write into the EDC treaty
controls which will be unenforceable without American support. A
compromise on this issue may be necessary to obtain French acqui-
escence to German participation in NATO.
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10. Saar issue threatens Adenauer Government:
The French appointment of an ambassador
to the Saar has seriously undermined
Chancellor Adenauer's political position.
Top German Foreign Office spokesmen state
at pressure on n u r from all parliamentary factions compelled
him to schedule for 7 February the Bundestag debate on rearmament
which he had previously postponed.
� Unless Adenauer can obtain some prior
French action to calm the "embittered" parliamentary atmosphere,
the government will be defeated on the European Defense Community.
This would force either abandonment of German integration into Western
defense or resignation of the government.
German diplomats feel that a crisis might
be Everted if France were to announce "free" elections in the Saar and
were also to declare that the status quo in the Saar had not been altered
by recent French action.
The US High Commissioner comments that
am for the first time really worried."
Comment: The statements of the German
spokesmen probably represent a move by Adenauer to force the Allies
to intervene in the French-German controversy. Under the present
circumstances it is doubtful that Adenauer will go through with the
debate as scheduled since he risks sure defeat if he does so, whereas
he would meet only continued pressure if he delayed the discussion.
11. FrenchCommunistspropagandize for east-west trade:
The American Embassy in Paris believes
that a Communist motion in the National
Assembly for the establishment of normal
east-west commercial relations "necessary
or the prosper' y o ranee" is obviously designed to whip up
enthusiasm for the Moscow Economic Conference in April, as well
as to build up sentiment favorable to the current French-Soviet trade
negotiations.
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This "cleverly keyed" campaign is having
some effect, as indicated by the passage of east-west trade resolutions
in several non-Communist municipal councils.
Comment: This phase of the Communist
propaganda campaign is well timed to exploit the growing oppositon
In Western Europe to American demands for tighter east-west trade
controls. The Italian Communists have also opened a press campaign
supporting the Economic Conference, seeking to show that USpressure
against trade with the Satellites hurts the economies of Western European
countries.
French manufacturers are particularly vulnerable
to the temptations of trade with the Soviet Orbit at this time when certain
Freoch exports are declining and the spectre of currency devaluation
looms large.
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