CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/01/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046533
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 26, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/08 CO2046533
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SEC INFORMATION
26 January 1952
Copy No. 4,
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I ; DECLASSIFIED
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CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT FIEVION DATE toe;
AUTH: HR1,5,1
DATE0041P . PIEVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURIINFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. French officers disturbed over Tbnkin military situation (page 3).
2. General insurrection reported to be imminent in Thailand (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iranian Minister in Warsaw warns against Iranian-Polish oil agreement
(page 4).
4. Iranians face increasing difficulties in Abadan area (page 4).
5. Egyptian stubbornness allegedly reinforced by Soviet contacts (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Polish shipping to China through Kiel Canal doubled (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7, East Germans call Soviet rejection of Berlin trade permits a "mistake"
(page 6).
8. French irked at US position on Saar issue ..page 6).
9. Franco asserts Britain now favors American aid to Spain (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Serious illness of President Arbenz may precipitate revolution in
Guatemala (page 7).
11. End of school strike eases situation in Panama (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. French officers disturbed over Tonkin military situation:
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Several French officers in Tonkin who are on 3.3(h)(2)
close personal terms with US Consulate officers
have expressed concern at current heavy French
casualties, which they believe ire double the
official figures. T ey are also disturbed at the increasing unreliability
of Vietnamese troops, and at the increasingly effective artillery of theViet
Minh. The Consulate comments that the Viet Minh appears, at least for
the time being, to have assumed the initiative, and that continued Viet
Minh pressure has taken on a quality of "endlessness" in the minds of
many French combat officers.
2. General insurrection reported to be imminent in Thailand:
The rank and file of the Thai military and police
forces will revolt against the ruling clique before
2 February, according to a usually reliable
source in contact with the conspirators. The
leader of the plot has not been identified, but the plotters are said to be
completely free of Communist influence.
The swift liquidation of all present military
leaders with the possible exception of General Sarit, the popular commander
of the Bangkok garrison, is planned. The monarchy will remain undis-
turbed and Phibun is to be retained as Premier for the present.
The source comments that government leaders
are aware of this plot, but are unable to take counter action because of the
disloyalty of their respective commands.
Comment The military clique now dominating
Thailand is widely disliked, and there have been several recent reports that
an effort is about to be made to overthrow the regime. These reports have
been consistent only in their prediction of action against the government.
There are no indications that the Thai leaders,
who are reportedly aware of their inability to prevent an uprising, are
preparing to flee the country.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3, Iranian Minister in Warsaw warns against Iranian-Polish oil agreement:
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against a hasty conclusion
of an oil agreement with Poland. He reported
that the Polish Minister of Foreign Trade had
told him that Poland could not transport oil
from Iran.
Comment: The Iranian Minister in Warsaw
appears to have a better grasp of the difficulties involved in any Iranian-
Polish oil agreement than his superiors in Tehran. Previous Polish re-
ports from Iran stated that the Iranians were pressing for an oil agreement
despite the Polish negotiator's lack of authority to make one.
4. Iranians face increasing difficulties in Abadan area:
Serious shortages of important materials and
an inefficient administration are hampering
operations at the Abadan refinery. Although
the International Bank representatives were
impressed by the good maintenance of the refinery, British observers in
nearby Basra report that the situation is deteriorating.
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Communists are openly engaged in agitation in
both the refinery area and the nearby technical school. Fear of the Commu-
nists has already forced the Iranian management to give in to demands for
the reinstatement of dismissed Tudeh members. Nepotism, payroll padding,and
thefts are also complicating operations.
Comment/
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5. Egyptian stubbornnestiallegedlyreinforced by Soviet contacts:
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Charles Malik, Lebanese UN Delegate and 3.3(h)(2)
Minister to the United States, is greatly alarmed
over the degree of Soviet influence entering
"intg the highest Egyptian circles" at the UN
General Assem y axis and in Egypt. He believes that "very fruitful
contacts" have been established between Egyptians and Russians and that
this might partially explain Egypt's inflexible attitude in the UN meetings.
Malik also charged that an effective unholy alliance existed between Egypt's
fanatical nationalist leaders and the Communists.
Comment: The increasing troubles in Egypt
in the past three months have promoted closer relations between Egypt and
the USSR. Frequent Egyptian abstentions on East-West issues in the General
Assembly meetings seem to confirm a November report that the two countries
had reached a tacit understanding to aid each other's objectives in the United
Nations.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Polish shipping to China through Kiel Canal doubled:
Polish shipping through the Kiel Canal destined 3.3(h)(2)
for Chinese and Manchurian ports has, during
the six-month period ending 31 December 1951,
more than doubled the figure for the preceding
six months. During the last six months of 1951,
ima ely 45, 000 cargo tons were shipped. The greatest increase
red during December, when six China-bound ships carrying 25, 318
tons passed through the canal.
Comment: The increase in December 1951 is
largely accounted for by the fact that Poland purchased three vessels of
Panamanian registry late last fall.
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WESTERN EUROPE
. East Germans call Soviet rejection of Berlin trade permits a "mistake":
East German officials have informed the
West German Government that the return of
large numbers of unstamped West Berlin ex-
port permits during the past two days was a
"mistake" on the part of the Soviet and East German authorities. The
Communist officials maintained that the "rejections" were merely an
attempt to clear up the entire backlog of export permits held by them,
prior to the establishment of the planned joint East-West German pro-
cedure for handling the permits.
United States officials now do not regard the
Communist action as causing a new crisis. US High Commissioner McCloy
states that if further evaluation supports the Communists' explanation, the
Allied High Commission may soon permit the West Germans to resume
interzonal trade.
8. French irked at US position on Saar issue:
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3.3(h)(2)
The French Foreign Office is "not only adamar3.3(h)(2)
but apparently impatient" to give diplomatic
status to its representative in the Saar, despite
American requests for a delay. The French do
not agree that this is a particularly bad time for such a move, and probably
suspect that the United States' position may be developing in favor of the
Germans.
Comment: Although replacement of the French
High Commission by an embassy would have no practical effect on its re-
lations with the Saar, France wants to establish the basis for a permanent
political separation of the Saar from Germany before the German contractual
arrangements are completed.
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9. Franco asserts Britain now favors American aid to Spain:
According to General Franco, British Foreign
Secretary Eden has assured the Spanish Am-
bassador in London that Britain, far from
objecting to bilateral economic and military
agreements between the United States and Spain, would favor them in every
way. Franco. told American Ambassador Griffis on 23 January that im-
mediately after this assurance was given, the British General Staff invited
the Spanish Army Minister to send twenty officers to Britain as student
observers.
Comment: Eden's alleged remarks would
represent a major shift in the British Government's attitude towards Spain.
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The controlled Spanish press has of late been
showing increasing cordiality towards Britain and has been hinting at a
Franco-Churchill meeting.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Serious illness of President Arbenz may precipitate revolution in Guatemala:
Salvadoran Minister of Defense Bolanos, re- 3.3(h)(2)
cently returned from Guatemala, expects an
anti- Communist revolutionary movement there
"very soon." El Salvador and Honduras re-
portedly favor such a movement and will assist.
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While in Guatemala, Bolanos was reliably
informed that President Arbenz of Guatemala has leukemia, but that the
Army refuses him a leave of absence because his constitutional successor
is a known Communist.
Comment: If Arbenz is seriously ill, as is
now believed, the Army is undoubtedly preparing to assume control of the
government. � The supporters of Lieutenant Colonel Castillo Armas, the
exiled military leader reputedly planning a military revolution for late
January, would probably join forces with an Army revolt initiated within
the country.
II. End of school strike eases situation in Panama:
The strike committee issued a statement on 3.3(h)(2)
22 January calling an end to the school strike
in Panama. The strike had failed to attain its
announced aim of precipitating changes in the
Panamanian Cabinet. Its end should, for the present at least, lessen the
likelihood of disorders and reduce agitation.
Comment: The school strike, in which
Communist participation was apparent, began last October.
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