CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/01/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02046528
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 19, 1952

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SER1TY INFORMATION
19 January 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN.
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLA
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: T$
NJT REvIEW DATE: -
AUTH: HI3 7-2
. DATE.
� Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Austrian delegation invited to Moscow for negotiations (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Viet Minh reportedly rejects Chinese Communist troop offer (page 3).
3. Military crisis fails to induce French concessions to Viet national-
ism (page 4).
4. Burmese considering limited appeal to .UN (page 5).
5. Chinese Nationalist General may be returning to Burma (page 5).
� SOUTH ASIA
6. Comment on the Soviet statements on Kashmir (page 6).
� NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Syria presses for American military aid (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8, New French Government faces difficulty in financing present commit-
ments (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
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GENERAL
1. Austrian delegation invited to Moscow for negotiations:
.The Soviet Ministry of Foreign Affairs has
invited the Austrian Government to send a
delegation to Moscow to discuss Soviet ex-
penses for repatriation of prisoners and
liberation of civilians by the Soviet Army.
This invitation is apparently in reply to a
message which the Austrian Government sent in the autumn of 1949
offering to send delegates to Moscow for discussion of Soviet claims
connected with repatriation of prisoners of war. No answer had pre-
viously been received. The Soviet reference to liberated Austrian
citizens apparently involves unsettled Austrian treaty article 48B
covering Russian services and supplies to Austria.
Austrian Foreign Minister Gruber is in-
clined to send a delegation, although'he realizes that the Russians
may use this as a pretext for stalling at the forthcoming four-power
treaty discussions.
Comment: The Deputy Foreign Ministers
previously had referred Article 48B to Austria and the USSR for
bilateral negotiation. The Russians in the past have objected to
discussing other unagreed articles of the treaty until an agreement
on this point had been reached.
FAR EAST
2. Viet Minh reportedly rejects Chinese Communist troop offer:
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A Chinese Communist proposal to intervene 3.3(h)(2)
in Indochina has been rejected by the Viet
Minh, which is confident that the situation in
Tonkin is developing in its favor and prefers
to ke'ep the conflict a local one, Chinese
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TPECET
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Communist troops were sent to the coastal area above Moncay to
prevent utilization of French border garrisons as reinforcements
against coming Viet Minh attacks in the delta.
Comment: This report is unconfirmed.
All reliable sources agree that there are no Chinese Communist
combat units in Indochina. Viet Minh reluctance to call upcin Chinese
Communist troop support has been reported from time to time:for over a
year, and is plausible in view of the traditional unpopularity of the
Chinese in Tonkin and the continuing improvement of the Viet Minh
army.
3. Military crisis fails to induce French concessions to Viet nationalism:
The French Minister for the Associated
States believes that the basic problem in
Indochina is political rather than military,
but apparently has no policy changes in mind
for dealing with the political situation. In a conversation with the Far
East director of the Mutual Security Agency, the Minister charged
that the Vietnamese are incapable of independence, but then agreed that
a more effective Vietnamese Government might create further diffi-
culties for France,
Comment: The Minister's statement re-
flects France's failure tp7i:Z7'7�the Vietnamese to an anti-Communist
effort within the French Union.
Despite increasing French concern over the
financial burden of the war in Indochina, there is no indication that
France has any intention of modifying its present political relationship
with Vietnam. There is likewise no indication that the Bao Dai govern-
ment and the Vietnamese people will be willing or able to contribute
effectively to the military effort, so long as France makes loyalty to
the French Union a prerequisite for high-level office in the Bao Dai
government.
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4. Burmese considering limited appeal to UN:
In reply to the US Charge's suggestion that
Burma request an observation commission
should it decide to place the Chinese National-
ist problem before the UN, the Permanent
Secretary of the Foreign Office stated that his government had already
recognized that this was "one feasible line of action." He added, how-
ever, that Burma may simply alert the UN to the possibility of a future
request for assistance.
Comment:
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presentation of the Chinese Nationalist 3.3(h)(2)
problem to the UN would be as embarrassing to themselves as to other
nations involved and would also be unlikely to produce an effective remedy
to the situation. This report indicates clearly that the Burmese are
attempting to develop a course of action which would resolve their dilemma
by focussing the world's attention on the Nationalist problem without ad-
mitting their inability to deal with it.
5. Chinese Nationalist General may be returning to Burma: 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2)
General
Li Mi, commander of Chinese Nationalist forces.
in Burma, has ended his visit to Formosa and
"just left. "
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SOUTH ASIA
6. Comment on the Soviet statements on Kashmir:
Soviet UN delegate Malik's demand on 17
Ianuary that the Indian-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir be settled
by a Kashmiri Constituent Assembly will increase local bitterness,
promote South Asian suspicion of "Western imperialism" and
complicate a case which may have been moving toward a settlement
Regardless of popular reaction, the Indian
3overnment, is publicly committed to continue to seek a solution
through the United Nations. Pakistan's deeply-rooted suspicions
that India has no real intention either of abiding by a United Nations
decision or of achieving a negotiated settlement are reinforced by the
Soviet maneuver.
In view of Malik's private suggestion to an
Indian official in March 1951 that the indicated solution for Kashmir
would be independence, this Soviet maneuver may be calculated to
support the recent drive for greater autonomy on the part of the Kash-
miris in the present Indian-sponsored government of that state. An
Independent or semt�independent Kashmir with strong leftist elements
In its government would afford the Communists opportunities for in-
filtration and for expanding their program in South Asia.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Syria presses for American military aid:
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Top Syrian officials have increased their .de- 3.3(h)(2)
mands for US military aid. The American
Minister in Damascu,s states that the Syrian
Chief of State will talk of nothing else until he
learns the US position in this matter. The Minister believes that the
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�
influential Chief of Staff, Lt. Col. Shishakli, delegated to the head
of the government the task of pressing for arms, and that "only
military aid will really strengthen the US position" in Damascus.
The Minister states that his efforts to work
out a unified Western approach in regard to military aid have proved
fruitless to date.
Comment: Syrian military demands for
Western arms have probably increased as the result of the continuing
� clouded political atmosphere in Damascus. While the Syrian Chief
of Staff is believed to be friendly to the West, his conference with
Soviet diplomatic representatives in the past indicates that he is suf-
ficiently opportunistic to seek arms from any quarter if his own domi-
nant position in the country will thereby be strengthened.
WESTERN EUROPE
� New French Government faces difficulty in financing present commit-
ments:
Former Premiers Pleven, Bidault, and
Reynaud have told Ambassador Bruce in
Paris that they believe the budgetary problem
arising from present commitments in Indo-
china and Europe is insoluble and that any French government at this
time will therefore be "comparatively short-lived.
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� Pleven believes that he can best promote the
European Defense Force and the idea of European federation by serving.
in the Assembly without obligations to the coalition government. He
expects Parliament to give general approval of the European defense
plan before the Lisbon NATO meeting next month, but warns that for-
mal ratification will be more difficult to obtain.
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Comment: Premier-designate Edgar Faure
has won Assembly supporT7j1Wng in to the Socialists' objections to
government economies by decree. This ends all hope for balancing
the 1952 budget without recourse to seriously inflationary measures.
If France fails to get the United States and
the United Nations to share its financial burden in Indochina soon, a
considerable increase in inflationary pressures in France can be ex-
pected; this would further aggravate both the rearmament problem
and political instability.
LATIN AMERICA
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3.3(h)(2)
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