THE CROSSOVER - VC/NVA MANPOWER BALANCE - 1967/11/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Tet Declassified
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02039905
• Document Creation Date: July 27, 2018

orrin
Approved for Release: 2018/06/28 CO2039905
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief,
THROUGH
:
FROM
:
SUBJECT
:
14 November 1967
3.5(c)
Chief, 3.5(c)
Acting Chief, 3.5(c)
The Crossover - VC/NVA Manpower Balance
1. Attached are some materials on VC/NVA manpower. Although
the problem of estimating enemy OB and trends in SVN remains a
prime intelligence problem, a number of useful generalizations can
be made.
2. In general, we believe that the crossover point has
probably been reached, but the sharpness of the break and the
rate of the trend are much less pronounced than the MACV
materials indicate. Recruitment has probably been at a rate closer
to the one we present here than that proposed by MACV. But,
because recruitment includes upgrading and NVA replacements are
not used as irregulars, the latter have borne a large part of net
attrition. The administrative support structure would appear to
have absorbed the remainder of net attrition. Fighting units
seem to be performing more of their own support and external
administrative support has grown as increasing numbers of NVA
troops have been used in the border areas where most of them
fight.
3. As one of the attached pieces explains, we cannot be
certain that the number of Main and Local Force troops has
declined.
4. Although the enemy is probably suffering some net attrition
now, his forces seem to have increased during most of 1966 and an
increase in infiltration on the order of 2,000 per month might
redress the balance even now.
Attachment:
As stated.
Approved for Release: 2018/06/28 CO2039905
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
�
SENDER WILL CHECK CLASSIFICATION -1 ANL) C.) 1 I CAN
- I
UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
SE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INILS
1
e PAXV
ter4n7
;I:14
Chief,
2
Chief,
3
4
5
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
I
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks:
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
/9 FOM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
14 Nov 67
W.
UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
/1/47
FORM NO.
2-61 037 Use previous editions
Approved for Release: 2018/06/28 CO2039905
(40)