CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/08/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020914
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: August 3, 1954

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3 August 1954
Copy No.
80 3.5(c)
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 0
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
[1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS, CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: PO/0
MTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 4450_ REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
0 Jo 4
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
Grain crops in Ukraine damaged by drought (page 3
FAR EAST
2.
3. Possible Chinese Communist operation against Tachen Islands (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Vietnamese desertions Increasing in Tonkin (page 4).
5. Comment on Thai reaction to former premier's emergence in
Peiping (page 5),
LATIN AMERICA
6. Comment on fighting between military factions in Guatemala (page 6).
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SOVIET UNION
1. Grain crops in Ukraine damaged by drought:
Agricultural officers of the American
embassy in Moscow believe that as a
result of drought conditions, grain
yields in areas of the Ukraine and nearby
regions, observed in late July, will range from around one half, to
three fourths of the postwar average. They conclude that the cur-
rent grain harvest in the Ukraine as a whole will not exceed two
thirds of the average crop. The damage is greater in the central
and southeastern Ukraine than in the other areas.
Comment: The drought damage in the
Ukraine, where normally about one fifth of the total grain output
of the USSR is produced, seriously impairs the chances of a large
increase in grain production over last year. However, crop pros-
peets in the remaining areas of the Russian Soviet Republic observed
by embassy officials have ranged from fair to good. Other large
areas of the USSR have not yet been observed.
Increasing grain output is of crucial impor-
tance to the Soviet agricultural and consumers goods programs and
Is necessary for any lasting large-scale expansion of Soviet foreign
trade with the West.
FAR EAST
2.
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3. Possible Chinese Communist operation against Tachen Islands:
There have been several indications of a
Chinese Communist intention to invade the
Tachen Islands in the near future, accord-
ing to unevaluated reports from the Chinese
Nationalist Ministry of National Defense.
These sources state that six large landing
craft carrying about 10,000 troops arrived on 27 July at a point about
50 miles north of the Tachens. They say that on 29 July, approxi-
mately 100 enemy vessels were sighted moving about 15 miles north
of the Tachens.
Comment: Peiping has been asserting
since 9 July that the Unite-ESTirei is contemplating extending the
responsibility of the American 7th Fleet to cover "certain" offshore
Islands, and the Communists may have decided to move against the
Tachens and perhaps other offehore islands as well. However, re-
ports from the Nationalist Ministry of Defense have generally not
been reliable.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Vietnamese desertions increasing in Tonkin:
According to a source of the American Military
Aid and Advisory Group.in Saigon, 1,080 men
deserted from Vietnamese military components
in Tonkin on 28 July alone, taking 600 weapons
with them. The Vietnamese 50th Battalion, normally 900 strong, has been
reduced by desertions to 120 men, who have been disarmed to discourage
desertions and prevent further loss of arms.
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Comment: Immediately prior to the cease-
fire agreement Vietnamese desertions in Tonkin averaged about 100
each day. Most of these occurred in militia and other semimilitary
units, and it is probable that many more of the approximately 80,000
Vietnamese in such units in Tonkin will desert prior to the French with-
drawal. Probably a smaller proportion of Vietnamese in regular army
units will desert, but even these desertions are expected to continue at
a very high level.
Most of these peasant soldiers will probably
return to their farms and hide their weapons. They are potential re-
cruits for any future expansion of the Viet Minh forces.
5. Comment on Thai reaction to former premier's emergence in Peiping:
The Thai government on 31 July reacted to
an article by former Thai premier Pridi in
the Peiping Peoples' Daily by alerting the
armed forces to face the possibility of a Communist-inspired uprising.
A government spokesman described the article, which called for the
overthrow of the Phibun regime, as the first step toward a Communist
attack on Thailand.
This panicky reaction suggests that the Thai
government may be overlooking the main significance of Peiping's move.
Peiping's use of Pridi at this time appears to be a major step in a pro-
longed psychological warfare campaign to cause dissension within the
Thai government. Pridi had a large, enthusiastic following among
Thai intellechials and worked satisfactorily with the present Thai
leaders in the past. Hence, he is the most effective agent Peiping
could have chosen for such a campaign.
The Communists are not believed to have the
potential for bringing about an internal uprising in Thailand. Further-
more, such an outbreak would be out of step with the Communists' cur-
rent emphasis on peaceful coexistence.
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LATIN AMERICA
. Comment on fighting between military factions in Guatemala:
The fighting which broke out on 2 August in
Guatemala City confirms earlier reports of t
smoldering resentment on the part of the
regular armed forces against Castillo Armas'
Army of Liberation which gave the regular
army a humiliating defeat in the June revolu-
tion.
As of 2400 hours EDT, the military situation
in Guatemala, City was still confused. The
small part of the Army of Liberation in the
capital had reportedly been captured; the main
body remained in Chiquimula, about 60 miles from the capital. Ele-
ments of the regular army were evidently at odds with each other,
though all professed loyalty to the junta.
Colonel Monzon, the representative of the
regular army on the junta, told Ambassador Peurifoy earlier in the
day that the fighting was the result of provocations by undisciplined
members of the Liberation Army. He was fearful that he would be
blamed, and supposed that this would be the end of the junta. Such a
split has evidently not developed. Nevertheless, the day's events con-
stitute an immediate blow to Castillo's prestige.
The Communists appear not to be involved in
the fighting in any way. Guards at embassies housing ex-President
Arbenz and other Communists and pro-Communists have been doubled
to prevent their escape.
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