CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/07/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020583
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 19, 1953

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19 July 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. _
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
kil . USSR reportedly to renew relations with Israel in two weeks
Ana crc. '11
2.
SOVIET UNION
3. Comment on announced Soviet plan fulfillment for the first half
of 1953 (Daae 4).
of
FAR EAST
/ North Korean aircraft reportedly concentrating near Yalu River
(page 5).
Chinese Nationalist defensive capabilities in Tachens to be
improved (page 6).
7. Formosa-based airlines deny supplying Li Mt troops (page 6).
SOUTH ASIA
8. Conditions in Kashmir reportedly deteriorating (page 7).
NEAR EAST AFRICA
9. Britain and Libya reach financial agreement (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. USSR increases forces in Berlin (page 8).
11. De Gasperits new cabinet may face parliamentary defeat (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. USSR reportedly to renew relations with Israel in two weeks:
2.
the Soviet
Union will renew diplomatic relations with
Israel in two weeks.
if diplomatic ties are resumed, the Soviet
mission will probably reside in Jerusalem.
Comment:
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3.307�(2)
Renewal of relations with Israel at this time
would indicate no change in the Kremlin's present foreign policy.
If the Russians establish their mission in Jerusalem
rather than Tel Aviv, they wilLgain favor with the Israelis,, who transferred
the foreign ministry to Jerusalem on 13 july to join the rest of the govern-
ment offices. Such action by the USSR, however, would antagonize the Arabs,
who favor the internationalization of that city. The chief Western missions
have indicated that they will remain in Tel Aviv for the time being.
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SECURITY INFORMATION
SOVIET UNION
3. Comment on announced Soviet plan fulfillment for the first half of 953:
The official announcement of Soviet plan ful-
fillment for the first half of 1953 reveals a continuing decline in the
rate of economic growth. Industrial production reportedly increased
10 percent and labor productivity five percent in the first half of 1953
over the first half of 1952. Comparable official Soviet figures were 11
and eight percent in 1952 over 1951.
4.
The announced results also show the present
extent of the new Soviet government's effort to increase the availability
of consumer goods. A 23 percent increase in sale of consumer goods
was reported in the second quarter of 1953 over the second quarter of
1952. Moreover, the only change revealed in the 1953 plan was the
additional allocation of 20 billion rubles for production and distribution
of consumer goods.
Production results in this first 1953 announce-
ment were reported on the basis of the new ministries as consolidated
after Stalin's death, making comparisons with previous periods even
more difficult than in the past.
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FAR EAST
5. North Korean aircraft reportedly concentrating near Yalu River:
Scheduled flights of North Korean aircraft
during the past few days strongly indicate a
massing of other elements of the North Korean
air force in the Yalu River area, in addition
to the MIG's already there.
On 16 July, two separate groups of 24 piston
fighters and 20 IL-10 piston ground-attack aircraft,
for flights southward into Kungchuling, with at
least the former group proceeding to an unidentified airfield believed to
be in the border area. On 15 July, from three to six IL-28 twin-jet
bombers and two TU-2 conventional bombers landed at an airfield in
the Antung area;
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Comment: The purpose of this apparent
concentration near the combat area is not: known. It is conceivable
that the Communists are planning to give air support to a large-scale
North Korean-Chinese offensive which may be planned for late July.
These moves could also be preparatory to the North Korean air force
entering Korea just before an armistice comes into effect
6. Chinese Nationalist defensive capabilities in Tachens to be improved:
Chinese Nationalist leaders plan to send the 3.3(h)(2)
10,000-man 46th division from Formosa to the
Tachen Islands to replace the present garrison
of 5,000 men,
One regiment of the division is scheduled to
leave Formosa on 20 July.
Comment: Chiang Kai-shek% decision to
bolster the Tachen Islands defenses with this relatively well-trained
and well-supplied division is in sharp contrast to his previously an-
nounced plan to reinforce the islands with a pootly4tained and ill-
equipped unit of less than 5,000 men.
7. Formosa-based airlines deny supplying Li Mi troops:
Both the CAT airline and Fooshing Airways
of Formosa state that none of their PBY air-
craft has been to Thailand within the last two
months, according to the US embassy in Taipei.
such planes, and all four are now on Formosa.
Comment: The American embassy in Rangoon
reported on 14 July the Burmese government's suspicions that two un-
marked PBY's then in Bangkok were being used to supply Chinese National-
ists in Burma, and that they belonged either to CAT or Fooshing Airways.
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SOUTH ASIA
8.
Conditions in Kashmir reportedly deteriorating:
Indian-held Kashmir is in political ferment ane_33(h)(2)
its economy in a perilous state, according to
an American embassy official who recently
visited Kashmir. Sheikh Abdullah, the Indian-
supported prime minister, is in a precarious position politically because
of popular dissatisfaction with his regime and dissension within his cabinet
over the future allegiance of the state. The embassy officer states that
Abdullah's personal relationship to Nehru is also unsatisfactory at present.
Comment: This first-hand report confirms
previous indications of unsettled conditions, which can be expected to
deteriorate unless there is a settlement of the Kashmir dispute.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Britain and Libya reach financial agreement:
The British Foreign Office and Libyan prime
minister Muntasser on 16 July concluded a
financial agreement, according to the British
Foreign Office. Subject to the approval of the
iament, Muntasser accepted the 2. 5 million
pounds sterling annual financial aid offered by Britain.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: Despite this forward step, the
treaty and annexes, which have been held up since last September, still
face a formidable obstacle in obtaining the approval they need in Libya.
Anti-British sentiment, particularly among government factions hostile to
the prime minister, has been reported on the increase. This feeling has
been abetted to a large extent by Egypt.
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WESTERN EUROPE
10. USSR increases forces in Berlin:
on 16-17 July 3.3(h)(2)
a strong Soviet armored force entered East
Berlin. Reports of troop and vehicle move-
ments indicate the presence in Berlin of the
entire 7th Guards Mechanized Division, and it is possible that elements
of another division are deployed to the east of the city. As many as 240
tanks are reportedly dispersed in various parts of the city. In the Pankow
district, the residential area occupied by high government officials is
being guarded by over 50 tanks.
Comment: Since the departure of the bulk of
the Soviet troops from Berlin in late June and early July, elements of
at least one Soviet division have remained in the city, with their tanks
and vehicles concentrated in several areas. The 7th Guards Mechanized
Division, however, was not one of those committed in Berlin after the
17 June riots..
It is possible that a show of strength is being
made by the USSR to frighten East Berlin workers into abandoning their
slow-down tactics. The precaution of guarding the Pankow residential
area suggests that trouble is anticipated.
11. De Gaspert's new cabinet may face parliamentary defeat:
Premier De Gasperi's new all-Christian
Democratic cabinet faces an uncertain
reception when it is submitted to parliament
about 21 July, according to the American
em assy tn 1ome. ome 35 of the 40 Monarchist deputies, annoyed
by De Gasperits anti-Monarchist views, reportedly will vote against
him.
The embassy feels that De Gasperi has
ignored the electoral trend to the left within his party by appointing
more conservatives than were in his previous cabinet. The dispro-
portionately large number of Catholic Action candidates named to the
new compromise cabinet gives the lay democratic parties a good excuse
to oppose the government on the clericalism issue.
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