CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/12/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020571
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: December 7, 1952

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CO2070,
7 December 1952
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Copy No. 57 3.5(c)
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DOCUMENT NO.40
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 4X�.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE: TS C
AUTH: 70-2
DATE/ r /I_ REVIEWER:
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Rumania reportedly to receive large shipment of Belgian steel
(page 3).
2. Poland considers arranging bunkering facilities in India (page 3).
3. Plans for sale of Chilean copper to USSR reported (page 4).
4. Finnish parliamentary committee approves subsidy for certain
exports to USSR (page 4).
FAR EAST
5. Yoshida government expected to survive present crisis age 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Schuman expected to resume Saar negotiations with Adenauer next
week (page 5).
7. Pinay avoids showdown in Assembly on budget (page 6),
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GENERAL
I. Rumania reportedly to receive large shipment of Belgian steel:
Rumania is to receive over 9, 000 tons of
finished steel from Belgium. Shipment
will reportedly take place this week. Customs officials are not to
see the receipt certificates until after the material has been loaded
aboard ship.
Comment: This is the largest known sale
of Belgian steel to the Orbit this year. Belgium demanded advance
payment because of Rumania's adverse trade balance.
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Rumania reportedly began sending wheat to the Netherlands
for Belgian francs in order to obtain the necessary exchange for
this purchase.
2. Poland considers arranging bunkering facilities in India:
The Polish Government in early October
was considering,
to import
bunker fuel into India for Polish vessels,
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Comment: The Polish Ocean Lines, which
carries a large portion of tl-TiTait's goods to China, needs bunker- 3.3(h)(2)
ing facilities along the route from Poland to the Far East. Such
facilities have been available at Djibouti but may be withdrawn shortly.
The Polish Government will find it
difficult to obtain bunker fuel in India since Western companies, which
control the handling of petroleum supplies, have agreed to refuse to
bunker Orbit vessels trading with Communist China. Indian petroleum
companies so far have been unable to secure tankers to bring in oil.
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3. Plans for sale of Chilean copper to USSR reported:
There is reportedly documentary evidence 3.3(h)(2)
of plans of one Candido Canton Fernandez
of Montevideo and Buenos Aires to negoti-
ate a deal with the Soviet trade delegate in
London involving 50,000 tons of copper. The copper is to be procured
from the Chilean Army War Materials Factory (FAMAE), and would
probably be shipped in lots of 1,000 tons. The outcome of the negoti-
ations is contingent on obtaining Belgian documentation.
Comment: This offer, which is roughly
equal to the Bloc imports in 1951, would reduce by about one third
the Orbit's estimated annual copper deficit.
Chile could supply 1, 000 metric tons of
copper a month, and possibly 50,000 metric tons in 18 months, with-
out decreasing average monthly shipments to the United States.
The new Chilean Minister of Economy
and Commerce stated in late October that there would be no shipments
of strategic materials to Iron Curtain countries. However, FAMAE
has been involved in copper transshipments in the past.
4. Finnish parliamentary committee approves subsidy for certain exports
to USSR:
The Financial Committee of the Finnish
Parliament has approved a government
proposal to amend 1951 legislation pro-
viding for a subsidy on metal and ship-
building exports.
The amendment would subsidize these
exports to the USSR under the supplementary trade agreement for
1952-1955. The Committee disapproved a similar government �
proposal to subsidize exports of these products to other countries.
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The US Legation in Helsinki believes that
parliamentary approval of the amendment would operate to discourage
firms from seeking western markets.
Comment: Such legislation would strengthen
the Soviet Union's economic ties with Finland. At the present time
the USSR is not only Finland's second� largest customer, but it is
also an important source of wheat and petroleum imports which Finland
obtains primarily in exchange for products of the metal and shipbuilding
industry.
FAR EAST
5. Yoshida government expected to survive present crisis:
A number of Diet leaders have advised
Ambassador Murphy that Prime Minister
Yoshida's Liberal Party will close ranks
to defeat the proposed Socialist motion
eign Minister Okazaki and thus see the cabinet
through the present crisis. Murphy reports that both the Hatoyama
and Yoshida factions of the Liberal Party, as well as the Progressives,
are beginning to realize that new elections now would be advantageous
only to the Socialists.
An influential member of the Hatoyama
faction has advised Murphy that next spring will be the opportune
time for a major move to defeat Yoshida.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Schuman expected to resume Saar negotiations with Adenauer next
week:
A high French Foreign Ministry official
has told the American Embassy in Paris
that Foreign Minister Schuman will
probably resume French-German negoti-
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ations on the Saar next week by addressing a letter to Chancellor
Adenauer asking for German views.
Comment: The last letter in these
negotiations was Adenauer's message of 16 October, in which he
proposed a French-German commission to study adaptation of the
French-Saar conventions to the anticipated European status of the
Saar. Schuman has delayed his answer pending disposition of the
Saar election problem.
The British Foreign Office feels that
pressure should now be put on the French to accept early technical
discussions of their coal and steel needs during a transitional period,
and Foreign Secretary Eden has told French Ambassador Massigli
that, despite the Saar election results, time is not on the side of the
French.
7. Pinay avoids showdown in Assembly on budget:
In view of Premier Pinar s withdrawal of
most of his controversial tax reform pro-
posals from the 1953 budget bill, the
American Embassy in Paris believes that
he will obtain approval of the bill by the end of this month. Peasant
Party leaders who deserted the government on the tax reform issue
told the Embassy that they expect to support Pinay's budget. The
Popular Republicans, despite resentment over the defeat of their
tax proposals, will avoid endangering Foreign Minister Schuman's
foreign policy.
Political observers in Paris consider
that Pinay is safe until February but believe that the deteriorating
economic situation will then bring about his defeat.
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