CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/05/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020564
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 24, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/08 602020564
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SEC INFORMATION
24 May 1952
Copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
I
00CUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS,
LI DECLASSIMO
CLASS. CHANGEo
NEXT FIEV!EW DATE:
Office of Current IntelligencliuTI4dai5.01
DAVE: REVIEWER:.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP RET
TY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Possible Soviet atomic tests in the near future (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Five additional Chinese Communist air divisions reported (page 3).
3. Viet Minh cites French "promise" to negotiate (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian Senator criticizes Mossadeq's handling of oil issue (page 5).
5. Comment on the Soviet protest against American military aid to
Iran (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. West German Government will attempt early ratification of
contractual agreement (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Revolutionary elements reportedly ready to renew Caribbean
activities (page 6).
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SOVIET UNION
1. Possible Soviet atomic tests in the near future:
Moscow, states, "Three observations are
tentatively scheduled for the period from the
midelle of May to the middle of July."
Comment: Since seismic stations usually
operate continuously, the mention of three observations is taken to imply
that three separate predictable events are expected in the period from
mid-May to mid-July.
Fairly good confirmation of the use of Soviet
seismic stations to record phenomena associated with atomic explosions
occurred prior to the atomic explosion of September 1951,
the installation of improved instruments should
be completed by August 1951 -- a few weeks before the explosion occurred.
FAR EAST
2. Five additional Chinese Communist air divisions reported:
five previously un-
known Chinese Communist air divisions are
located in China proper. Four of them were
first noted in November 1951, and the fifth in February.
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The operational status, type and strength of
aircraft, and numerical designations of these divisions are unknown.
Comment: increases to
25 the number of known Chinese Communist air divisions. Only ten,
with an estimated strength of 500 planes, are in Manchuria, where 350
to 400 Soviet and Korean jets and conventional fighters are also based.
The number of combat planes in the Chinese
Communist Air Force increased from an estimated 1,000 in Stine 1951
to the present estimate of 1,800 planes.
3. Viet Minh cites French "promise" to negotiate:
Comment:
there have been persistent rumors of a French
intention to arrive at a negotiated peace with the Viet Minh. These ru-
mors have continued despite French denials.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian Senator criticizes Mossadeq's handling of oil issue:
Prime Minister Mossadeq's
II son-in-law, Senator Matin Daftari, recently
told an Iranian official that the situ-
ation in Iran WM soon e "catastrophic."
Senator Daftari, who appeared "willing" to succeed his father-in-law,
favored an approach to the oil problem which would enable Great Britain
to recover part of its losses in Iran without offending the Soviet Union.
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apparently attempted to sound out Soviet intentions in the oil matter
during his attendance at the Moscow Economic Conference.
Comment: Daftari's statements reflect the
growing desire in Iran for settlement of the oil dispute. His plan appears
no more concrete, however, than similar ones proposed by other leading
Iranians. Since Daftari clearly shares the general Iranian suspicion that
the Soviet Union, like Britain, is conspiring against Iran, he may have at-
tempted to ascertain the Soviet view on the matter.
5. Comment on the Soviet protest against American military aid to Iran:
The note delivered to Iran on 21 May is the
first official Soviet reaction to Mossadeq's agreement on 24 April to the
renewal of American military aid. Earlier, the Soviet Ambassador in
Iran was said to be "furious" over its resumption, and his absence from
the opening session of the Majlis on 27 April was interpreted as an un-
official expression of Soviet displeasure.
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While the note, the first sent to Iran since
1950, would appear routine Soviet policy, the Russian trade delegation
in Iran has now reversed its position and insisted that oil be included in
the list of exports under the pending Iranian-Soviet trade agreement
The protest, therefore, would appear timed to force Iran to agree to
the Soviet terms, as well as to reconsider renewal of American military
aid.
Should Iran consent, the USSR might attempt
to import at least a token oil shipment in order to force the United States
to suspend assistance.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. West German Government will attempt early ratification of contractual
agreement:
Federal Republic coalition leaders will press
Parliament for ratification of the Allied-German
contractual agreement before it adjourns on
20 July. They believe that prompt American
ratification of the treaty would greatly improve chances of early accept-
ance of the treaty by German legislators.
High Commissioner McCloy comments that
West German ratification will surely be delayed if the United States Senate
fails to approve the document during its present session, or if Allied-
Russian talks are held on German unification in the near future.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Revolutionary elements reportedly ready to renew Caribbean activities:
The Panamanian Consul General in CostaRica
has informed his government that preparations
are being made to run substantial amounts of
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arms, including over 500 machine guns, from that country to Panama.
The Panamanian Minister of Government says that the shipments are
destined for Venezuela.
Meanwhile, Ambassador Wiley reports that
US Army intelligence in Panama has information that the Caribbean
Legion is moving arms to the west coast of Costa Rica,
Comment: The arms may be coming
from the plantation of Jose Figueres, ex-President of Costa Rica whose
name has long been linked with activities of the Caribbean Legion, a
heterogeneous group of political exiles whose aim is the overthrow of
dictatorships.
The weapons could be destined for any number
of trouble spots in the area: Panama, where anti-Remon forces threaten
to challenge by force the results of the 11 May plection; Colombia and
Venezuela, where arms reportedly have been smuggled to opposition
groups recently; or Ecuador, where political conditions are highly un-
stable with the approach of the 1 June presidential elections.
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