CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/10/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02020556
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 6, 1951

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&October. 1951
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
2. Panikkar makes representations on behalf of US nationals
in China (page 3)
3. US Legation sees long French struggle against Viet Minh
(page 4)
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan indicates willingness to share in Middle Eastern
defense (page 5)
NEAR EAST
5. British Government split on naval blockade of Iran (page 6)
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Anti-government activities widespread in Poland (page 6)
WESTERN EUROPE
. France wants to increase imports from the Soviet bloc
(page 7)
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FAR EAST
20 Panikkar makes representations on behalf of US nationals in China:
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Indian Ambassador Panikkar on 2 October
made representations on behalf of US
nationals in Communist China to Chen Chia-
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kang, Director of the Asian Section of Peiping's Foreign Office. Chen
in turn alleged that thousands of overseas Chinese were being detained
in foreign countries, especially in Southeast Asia, but finally promised
to investigate the cases on the Ambassador's list. The Indian Foreign
Office, relaying the above conversation to the US Embassy in New
Delhi, noted that Panikkar was the only mission chief in Peiping who
had personally made representations for US nationals.
Comment: Chen Chia-kang is one of several
Chinese Communist figures, assigned during and after World War II to
liaison duties with American and other Western.personnel, who acquired a
reputation for being amiably disposed toward the US. There is no evi-
dence, however, that he, a second-level functionary, is genuinely pro-
Western. It is therefore doubtful that he either would or could do any-
thing to improve the status of US nationals in Communist China.
3, US Legation sees long French struggle against Viet Minh:
The US Charge in Saigon notes that most
French officers and foreign attaches in Indo-
china do not agree with General de Lathe's
recent estimate that he might be able to de-
feat the Viet Minh within two years. He
quotes e British Army Attache as estimating that a Viet Minh defeat
is not possible in the foreseeable future. The US Charge further
asserts that a deterioration of Viet Minh morale cannot be assumed
and that, in any case, there is no present indication that their mili-
tary strength is declining.
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Comment: During the past ten months Viet
Minh military strength in relation to that of the French has decreased.
There are clear indications of deteriorating morale among the civilian
population in Viet Minh areas. Military morale has probably been
similarly affected. France's present military commitment in :Indo-
china is straining its resources severely, and any conspicuous de-
cline in Viet Minh strength probably would result in political pressure
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in France for the reduction of this commitment. Such a reduction
would again shift the balance in favor of the Viet Minh.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan indicates willingness to share in Middle Eastern defense:
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The Pakistani Army Commander-in-Chief
and the Secretary of the Ministry of Defense also recently told the
US Ambassador in Karachi that Pakistan was definitely interested in
taking part in a Middle East defense scheme.
Comment: These approaches may have been
made to win French and US support against India in forthcoming Secu-
rity Council meetings on the Kashmir case. nvertheless, Pakistan
probably would work actively for a solution of Anglo-Egyptian-Iranian
problems if the Kashmir question were settled. The Pakistanis appear
willing to contribute militarily as well as diplomatically to the develop-
ment of a Middle East defense program.
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NEAR .EAST
5. British 9overnment split on naval blockade of Iran:
There are divergent views within the British
Government over the wisdom and legality of
a naval blockade of future Iranian oil ship-
ments, according to the US Ambassador in
London.
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Comment: A blockade of Abadan would be
an effective way of denying to Iran the benefits of oil nationalization.
Lack of unanimity among the British on this subject, however, suggests
that they will make no immediate attempt to use military force against
Iran in connection with the oil issue.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Anti-government activities widespread in Poland:
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resistance groups, of three to five persons
each, are located in important cities in west-
ern Poland and maintain direct communica-
tions with their parent organization in London,
although not with each other. Their activities consist principally of
providing general information on events and conditions in Poland and
occasionally disseminating anti-Communist propaganda.
Comment: Communications intelligence and
reports from other sources indicate that participation in anti-Commu-
nist activities in Poland is on a broader popular scale this year than
in 1950. More widespread resistance activity has been reported from
western Poland during the past few months, and its nature suggests
that improved organizational techniques are being employed by the
anti-regime groups. Polish security police messages between March
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and May 1951 reveal that security police operations against a large
variety of resistance activities in eastern Poland are at least as
frequent as they were last year,.
WESTERN EUROPE
. France wants to increase imports from the Soviet bloc:
Although the French Foreign Office denies
that it is seeking another Economic Commis-
sion for Europe meeting on East-West trade,
French officials in the past two weeks have
been putting increasing emphasis on their
re imports from the Soviet bloc.
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A general France-USSR commercial treaty
was signed in early September, and the two countries are now ne-
gotiating for its implementation. The Soviet Union particularly de-
sires textiles and large quantities of copper wire.
Comment: At the August Economic Com-
mission for Europe meeting on East-West trade, the French were
anxious to explore all possibilities of trade with the USSR in non-
critical items. They wanted to prevent the USSR from charging France
with the failure of the talks, but they also had legitimate commercial
motives. At the same meeting, the USSR showed an interest in obtain-
ing from France steam boilers, lead and other metals, reinforcing
rods, ships, and machinery. The French themselves are faced with
a copper shortage.
When the US made inquiries about the French
agreement in June to give the Poles ball bearings, French officials
replied that they reserved the right to export limited quantities of
critical items to the Orbit when necessary to obtain vital imports such
as coal.
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