CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/11/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02018009
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: November 11, 1952

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INFORMATION
INFORMATION
11 November 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
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DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ye
Ci DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: T
NEXT REVIEW DATE;
AUTH: 70-2
REVIEWER:
DATE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. West German note attempts to lessen Arab-West German tension
,(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Severe damage in northern KuriIs caused by 5 November earth-
quake (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Peiping suggests some Chinese POW's need not be repatriated
(page 4).
4. Moslem guerrillas reportedly recapture northwest China base
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mossadeq again attempts to curb the Shah's power (page 5).
6. Tribal unrest in northern Iran increases (page 5).
7. Britain attempting to forestall general release of arms to Egypt
(page 6).
8. British advisers support Libyan demand for increased US compen-
sation for air bases (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. New Soviet move on German POW's seen likely (page 7).
10. Austrian support for East-West trade controls weakening (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. West German note attempts to lessen Arab-West German tension:
The West German Ambassador in Cairo
believes that a note he delivered to General
Nagib on 9 November will probably forestall
the impending break in West German-Arab
economic relations. The note states that the West German Government
is most anxious to begin conversations with the Arab League over the
controversial West German-Israeli restitution agreement, and in effect
assures the League that Bonn will not ratify the agreement prior to
such conversations.
Comment On 7 November Nagib promised
to use his influence with the Arab League to postpone its threatened
economic boycott provided that Bonn would make such assurances.
While the Bonn government steadfastly re-
fuses to abrogate the signed agreement, it might defer to the League
by delaying implementation of the agreement or altering the procedures.
The West German press, spurred on by Arab threats to turn to East
Germany for its imports, strongly urged that substantial concessions
be granted.
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2. Severe damage in northern Kurils caused by 5 November earthquake:
Severo
Kurilsk, the largest city in the Kurils, is under water.
about 7,000 persons
were evacuated and that plans for evacuating 1 ,000 more are being
made.
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Comment: A Soviet infantry division has
its headquarters in Severo Kurilsk, on Paramushiru Island. An air
regiment is based on the neighboring island of Shimushu.
The extent of the disaster may be judged by
the operation of a 68-plane airlift on 5 November and the subsequent
diversion of all available naval and merchant vessels to the area.
FAH EAST
3. Peiping suggests some Chinese POW's need not be repatriated:
The British delegate to the UN General
Assembly reports that the Peiping regime
recently advised the Indian Government
that it would not demand the-repatriation
of "Chiang Kai-shek agents" among the
Chinese prisoners taken in Korea.
Comment: Peiping has previously insisted
on the repatriation of all 22,000 Chinese POW's, of whom about
16,000 are unwilling to return. There is no indication, however,
that Peiping would agree to the classification of any large number of
Chinese POW's as "Chiang Kai-shek agents."
On 10 November Vyshinsky stated in the
UN that all prisoners should be repatriated regardless of their
wishes.
q. Moslem guerrillas reportedly recapture northwest China base:
Moslem guerrillas recaptured their base in
eastern Tsin hai Pr
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The �att e too pace I mi es 3.3(h)(2)
west of Lanchow and there were "thousands"
of guerrilla and Chinese Communist casualties.
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CRET
Comment: A large-scale Moslem rebellion
In the adjacent province of Kansu was reported in April.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mossadeq again attempts to curb the Shah's power:
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According to Minister of Court Ala, Mossadeq
has told the Shah that the Constituent Assembly
of 1949, which gave the Shah the right to dis-
solve the Majlis, was created by the British
and that its decisions are therefore invalid. When the Shah suggested
that he should dissolve the present Majlis and thus delay approval of
Its legislation until a new parliament is elected, Mossadeq insisted
that the Shah has "no other choice but to bow to the will of the Majlis
and sign the bills" without awaiting senate approval.
Comment: The measures which the Majlis
has passed recently are all designed to reduce the power of the tradi-
tional ruling class.
6. Tribal unrest in northern Iran increases:
Unrest in the Kurdish tribal areas in north- 3.3(h)(2)
western Iran has increased appreciably in.
recent weeks, according to the American
Consulate in Tabriz. Kurdish opposition
has already forced the government to suspend its agrarian reform
program in these areas.
Arms smuggling and banditry are increasing
as army control is gradually being restricted to the larger cities and
garrisons. Tribal chiefs are showing a tendency to unite despite the
lack of a strong leader. Should the government attempt to enforce
its reform program, a serious clash is expected.
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Comment: Although Kurdish chieftains
have always resented government attempts to regulate tribal affairs,
this is the first time in recent years that they have presented any
determined resistance. Tribal opposition to the government will
increase as government control of the area deteriorates.
7. Britain attempting to forestall general release of arms to Egypt!
The British Government will stress to the
North Atlantic Council that-the release of any
considerable quantity of arms to Egypt
would undermine Britain's bargaining position
for obtaining Egyptian association with Western defense plans. Future
British arms policy toward Egypt will depend on Cairo's reaction to
the release of 15 jet planes.
Other countries will not be asked to refrain
from supplying Egypt with arms,but will be asked to conform to the
British policy.
Comment: British Foreign Office officials
have stated that once Britain has released the 15 jets, it will be almost
impossible to prevent other countries from supplying Egypt with arms.
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8. British advisers support Libyan demand for increased US compensation
for air bases:
British financial advisers to the Libyan 3.3(h)(2)
Government, if asked for advice by Premier
Muntasser, will recommendthat the United
States pay $2,000,000 a year for the use of
bases in Libya, according to British adviser Haley. He told a member
of the American Legation in Tripoli that Muntasser would gain a great
psychological advantage in parliament if he could state that he had
doubted the sum previously agreed on.
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Because of the influence of these advisers
and the known attitude of Muntasser, the American Charge believes
that Libya will not accept a lower figure.
Comment: Muntasser informed American
Minister Villard in August that the $1,000,000 previously agreed on
as annual compensation for US bases in Libya was not sufficient.
Muntasser has maintained that unless the compensation is increased,
the treaty will not be ratified.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. New Soviet move on German POW's seen likely:
American officials in Berlin believe that 3.3(h)(2)
East German initiative in publicizing recent
discussions between Prime Minister Grotewohl
and leaders of the West German Communist-
front "Deutsche Sammlung" may portend
some tion from Moscow on the release of German prisoners
held since the end of World War IL This is the first time that the
Communists have admitted discussing the POW problem with West
German representatives.
A Soviet move at this time could be intended
to deprive Bishop Dibelius of credit for any favorable Soviet action
following his forthcoming visit to Moscow.
Comment A Soviet concession at this
time would more likely be intendect to facilitate continuing East
German overtures to Bonn for all-German talks.
10. Austrian support for East-West trade controls weakening:
Austrian officials are now "definitely
stiffening" against American pressure on
trade controls and some concessions may
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be necessary to ensure their long-run cooperation, according to
American Embassy officials in Vienna. They attribute this change
in sentiment to mounting unemployment, difficulties in finding alter-
native Western markets, and the rejection of recent proposals for
trade with the Orbit.
Foreign Minister Gruber has urged careful
consideration of the plight of a large Tyrolean metals firm whose
inability to fill certain Orbit orders will aggravate an already serious
unemployment problem.
Comment: Recently proposed tungsten and
molybdenum processing agreements with Satellite countries would
help alleviate the unemployment problem, but have generally been
considered too beneficial to the Orbit. With the elections only about
four months away, the coalition government will be particularly
vulnerable to pressure for an expansion of foreign trade.
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