CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02018004
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 17, 1952

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SECUBifY INFORMATION
17 October 1952
Copy No.
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 9,06
MTH: HR 70.2 A
DATE) /11447, REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Communist China to undertake five-year plan (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA �
2. Current Viet Minh action considered diversionary (page 3
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Iran's announced break with Britain (page 4).
4. Iranian official dissatisfied with US policy (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. French considering conditional reply to USSR on talks (page 5).
6. Adenauer proposes joint public statement with Schuman on
Saar (page 6).
7. Comment on possible drastic shift in Britain's rearmament
policy (page 6).
8.
LATIN AMERICA
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FAR EAST
1. Communist China to undertake five-year plan:
The Chinese Communists have decided
to initiate Li e r n
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The plan,
expectedo eut led in four years, reportedly has four main
objectives: food production, construction of heavy and light industries,
development of mineral resources, and the extension of communications.
Comment: Although Peiping has not announced
a five-year plan, a 1 October Pravda article stated that such a plan
was being prepared. The specific goals set up in the plan have not
been disclosed, but they undoubtedly envisage a continued expansion
of industrial output.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Current Viet Minh action considered diversionary:
The American Consul in Hanoi believes
that current Viet Minh action against
the mountain outpost of Nghia Lo, 100
miles northwest of Hanoi, involves less
than a division and is designed to clear the way for an assault on
the delta itself. A number of small French outposts near Laichau,,
200 miles northwest of Hanoi, and Nghia Lo have already fallen.
The Consul considers that the loss of the
northwestern sector would be more harmful to French prestige
than to vital military interests.
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Comment:
ThTmajor burden of forthcoming
Viet Minh operations will be borne by a force of four divisions,
three infantry and one artillery. The main effort will apparently
be made at a point on the edge of the delta, midway between Nghia
Lo and Hanoi.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on Iran's announced break with Britain:
Prime Minister Mossadeq's announcement
that his government was "unfortunately obliged" to break diplomatic
relations with Britain presages little significant change in the
immediate future. A continuing deadlock in the oil issue will
generate pressure for more drastic social and economic reforms,
While the Prime Minister's arbitrary
action in announcing the break to the nation rather than to
parliament was reportedly due to his inability to obtain a quorum
in the Majlis, it may foreshadow a more autocratic attitude on
his part.
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4. Iranian official dissatisfied with US policy:
Hossein
Makki, the Iranian oil board member who
has been a guest in the United States of
the International Bank, is dissatisfied
with the American government's conduct toward Iran.
Makki felt he should state his criticisms in
a press interview prior to his departure.
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Comment: National Front leader Makki,
a close confidant of Mossadeq, has been one of the leaders in
the attack against Great Britain. His dissatisfaction with the
United States may cause him to sponsor an active anti-American
campaign when he returns to Tehran.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. French considering conditional reply to USSR on talks:
The French Government is considering
telling the USSR that France would be
glad to enter into the conversations
suggested by Foreign Minister Vyshinsky,
but only "in consultation with the British and Americans and not
independently!' According to the high French Foreign Ministry
official who revealed this to the American Embassy in Paris,
France has decided to advise only the United States and Britain
of Vyshinsky's recent approach.
Comment: This is the first clear indication
that the Pinay government may gas far as to enter into bilateral
talks with the USSR in order to rally domestic political support.
Any such talks would certainly cause delays in rearmament and
make other Western powers suspicious of French policy.
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6. Adenauer proposes joint public statement with Schuman on Saar:
West German Chancellor Adenauer has
informed High Commissioner Donnelly
that he will send, not later than 17
October, two letters to French Foreign
Minister Schuman dealing with the Saar issue. In one he will
propose a joint public statement that agreement has been reached
in principle on Europeanization of the territory and that negotiations
will continue. This, Adenauer believes, would be sufficient to
persuade the Saar Parliament to postpone the date of the scheduled
elections to avoid interference with the negotiations.
The other note would deal with the substance
of the disagreements between France and Germany on the Saar.
Adenauer still insists that any agreement not be definitive, but
admits that he might modify his recent suggestion for a five-year
provisional agreement. He indicated that a provisional period
lasting until a peace treaty is concluded would be acceptable.
7. Comment on possible drastic shift in Britain's rearmament policy:
The prediction by a leading London
Conservative daily of a drastic shift in Britain's rearmament
policy
According to the newspaper, the Churchill
government plans to concentrate on a smaller striking force with
new type weapons in the belief that Britain's economic strength
must have first priority, and that the American atomic stockpile
is a sufficient deterrent to immediate Soviet aggression.
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LATIN AMERICA
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