CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02018003
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 16, 1952

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SECURIT.YINFORMATION
16 October 1952
Copy No.
5.,
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
toe
DOCUMENT NO a
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. X
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2A
DATENDA4 77 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1, North Korean aircraft vacate combat airfields in Yalu River
complex (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French clearing operations may have upset Viet Minh plans
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Ibn Saud opposes withdrawing troops from Buraimi (page 4).
4. Change in Egyptian Re gency Council emphasizes army's
strength (page 4),
5. Communist-front party will run candidates in Greek elections
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. French report West Berliners shifting in favor of four-power
talks (page 5).
7. Prospects for Belgian ratification of EDC treaty worsen (page 6).
8, Italian leaders to block opposition to EDC at Socialist Conference
(page 7).
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FAR EAST
1. North Korean aircraft vacate combat airfields in Yalu River complex:
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Comment: These transfers will practically
empty the airfields in Yalu River complex of North Korean air
units, still largely in a training phase. The move may be designed
to provide facilities for additional trained Soviet or Chinese combat
units.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French clearing operations may have upset Viet Minh plans:
French headquarters in Indochina believes 3.3(h)(2)
that current clearing operations and the
partial interdiction of Viet Minh attempts
to infiltrate the Tonkin delta have upset
the over-ail v...3z. Minh campaign plan.
The delivery of Chinese Communist aid, currently estimated by the
French at 500 tons a month, has been rendered increasingly difficult
by the bombing of supply routes and a shortage of coolie labor.
Comment:
Viet Minh offensive operations would be initiated
during the latter part of October. It is not yet possible to determine
whether the French action may have forced a postponement,
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ET
The estimated Chinese aid contrasts with
1,000 tons a month believed to have been delivered last winter.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Ibn Saud opposes withdrawing troops from Buraimi:
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Comment: Although the American Consul
at Dhahran believes that the situation is improved for the moment,
the King's adamant attitude on withdrawing troops from Buraimi may
encourage the outbreak of further incidents in the area.
4. Change in Egyptian Regency Council emphasizes army's strength:
General Nagib's removal of Colonel 3.3(h)(2)
Mohanna from the Egyptian Regency Council
is considered by Ambassador Caffery to be
a sign of the strength of the army's inner
circle.
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The Embassy points out that Mohanna
did not belong to the military group which planned the 23 July coup,
and that he was selected for the Regency Council only because of his
high reputation as an army officer.
Caffery adds that some sources in Egypt
believe that Mohanna represented the Moslem Brotherhood and
that his dismissal may be connected with army efforts to curb the
Brotherhood's influence.
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Comment: Nagib's summary dismissal of
Colonel Mohanna and the resignation of Mohammad Barakat remove
the two strongest men from the three-man Regency Council, further
evidence that the army is steadily consolidating its position. Prince
Moneim, the provisional regent, can be expected to be completely
docile.
5. Communist-front party will run candidates in Greek elections:
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The Communist-dominated EDA Party 3.3(h)(2)
announced on 12 October that its efforts to
cooperate with other parties had failed, and
that consequently it will run its own candidates
throughout Greece in the approaching elections. The announcement
added that the door was still open for cooperation.
Comment: The strength of Marshal
Papagosi rightist Greek Rally ancrthe left-center EPEK-Liberal
coalition is nearly equal, and it is difficult to predict the outcome of
the elections.
Although EDA leaders recently stated that
Prime Minister Plastiras' EPEK could not blackmail them into
joining an electoral coalition, they are presumably aware of the ad-
vantages which the reiteration of their independent status gives them
in extracting concessions from E:PEK.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. French report West Berliners shifting in favor of four-power talks:
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a result of the initiative of the German
Democratic Republic in mid-September,
public opinion in Berlin has "clearly" shifted
in favor o negotiations with the USSR.
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West Berliners, led by Mayor Reuter,
have regarded past Soviet and East German unity offers as propa-
ganda, but are taking the latest overtures seriously. They feel
that the Germans may have a chance for unity if they sacrifice
the Polish-administered territory east of the Oder-Neisse line.
They believe that the USSR has abandoned
the idea of a neutral Germany, and now simply requires "guarantees"
concerning the German army and relinquishment by Germany of the
Polish-administered territory.
Comment: Sentiment for four-power talks
is widespread in West Germany, although there are no other reports
of its extent in West Berlin. Although there is no evidence that the
USSR would permit the unification of Germany on the terms described,
certain West German circles believe that a Soviet policy shift in
that direction is imminent.
7. Prospects for Belgian ratification of EDC treaty, worsen:
The American Embassy in Brussels believes 3.3(h)(2)
that the Belgian Government may be expected
to grow even more timid about ratification
of the EDC treaty as a consequence of its
unexpectedly heavy defeat in thel2October communal elections. The
Embassy notes that the opposition Socialist Party may prefer to let
the weak Social Christian (Catholic) government remain in power for
the next few months to bear the onus of sponsoring taxes for support
of the new budget.
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Comment: Just before the elections,
Foreign Minister Van Zeeland indicated that because of the govern-
ment's slim parliamentary majority and widespread doubts on EDC,
the arrangements for voting on the EDC treaty would have to be made
carefully.
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TtSECR ET
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8. Italian leaders to block opposition to EDC at Socialist Conferencez
Italian Democratic Socialist leaders Saragat 3.3(h)(2)
and Lombardo have promised to make every
effort to prevent use of the forthcoming
International Socialist Conference at Milan
to retard EDC ratification.
Saragat doubts that a call for four-power
talks on Germany would carry at the conference. The Amefican
Embassy in Rome has emphasized to both men that any resolution
bearing on German unity should be premised on free elections,
Comment: At the recent Democratic
Socialist congress, Saragat was elected secretary general and his
right-wing groups won 12 of the 21 seats on the directorate. Lombardo
reiliesented Italy at the EDC treaty negotiations,
The West German Social Democrats are
expected to propose at Milan a resolution in favor of four-power
talks. Such talks would inevitably delay ratification of the EDC
treaty.
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