CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/06/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02017998
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 6, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
6 June 1952
Copy No, 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Soviet Union plans appointment of new ambassadors (page 3).
2. Soviet feeler regarding terms for Korean armistice (page 4).
FAR EAST
Appointment of new Vietnamese premier stuns Tonkinese
(page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Ambassador Kennan comments on Rumanian situation (page 5)0
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Italy prepares to resume direct discussions with Yugoslavia
over Trieste (page 5).
6, Soviet air preparedness measures in East Germany (page 6).
7.
8.
LA TIN AMERICA
Argentine exile predicts Rine revolt against Peron (page 7).
Guatemalan agrarian reform
bill (page 7).
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GENERA L
1. Soviet Union plans appointment of new ambassadors:
Ambassador Kerman reports from Moscow
that he was told by the British Ambassador
that the Soviet Union has indicated its desire
to appoint Andrei Gromyko as Ambassador to
Great Britain.
Comment: Previously the USSR had re-
quested the United States to accept Georgi Zarubin as Ambassador to
Washington.
The proposed appointment of these two top
foreign service officials to London and Washington may be an indication
that the USSR does not anticipate an imminent conflict with the West..
The Kremlin may also expect a period of deepening international
crisis during which its representatives in London and Washington
must be equipped to speak with authority and be capable of accurate
analysis of Western intentions.
Grotnyko is a specialist in Western affairs,
having been Counselor in the Soviet Embassy in Washington from 1939 to
1943 and later Ambassador to the United States. He participated
actively in the Dumbarton Oaks, Yalta, and Potsdam conferences and
was chief Soviet delegate to the UN Security Council from 1946 to 1948.
Since that time he has been First Deputy Foreign Minister of the USSR.
Zarubin's primary experience in Western
affairs contrasts with that of Panyushkin, the present Ambassador to
the United States, who is a Far Eastern specialist. Zarubin who has
been in London since 1946, headed the Soviet diplomatic mission to
Ottawa at the time of the Canadian spy case and was chief of the A men-
can division of the Soviet Foreign Office. He has frequently been a
delegate to Council of Foreign Ministers' meetings and to the UN.
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2. Soviet feeler regarding terms for Korean armistice:
In a conversation with an Israeli delegate at 3.3(h)(2)
the United Nations, Assistant Secretary Gen-
eral Zinchenko, a Russian national, took the
initiative in suggesting a new formula for the
Korean armistice negotiations. Zinchenko asked for an opinion on
the possibility of initialing an armistice agreement on the basis of issues
already settled, with the understanding that the agreement would become
effective upon settlement of the POW issue.
Zinchenko opened the discussion with a reference
to a conversation of a year ago between Malik and the Israeli delegate
In which the latter expressed the view that settlement of the German
question would be difficult as long as the Korean war continued.
The Israeli delegate commented that Zinchenko
was probably "not freewheeling" and suggested that the Russians
were sounding out sentiment on bringing up pending issues such as
Korea during the USSR's presidency of the Security Council in June.
Comment: The USSR's first initiative on a
Korean settlement occurrea in the Malik conversation with the Israeli
delegate in March, 1951. Such approaches appear intended both to
convey information and gain an impression as to how firmly UN
members support the US stand in Korea.
FAR EAST
3. Appointment of new Vietnamese premier stuns Tonkinese:
An official of the Tonkin government told the 3.3(h)(2)
American Consul in Hanoi that news of the
appointment of Nguyen Van Tam to the premier-
ship has been received with "stunned incre-
dulity," and predicted that Tam will last only a few months, since he �
Is entirely without Vietnamese backing. The same official interprets
Tam's appointment as a final desperate bid for power by the French,
who, he said, induced Bao Dai to name Tam by assuring Bao Dai a large
personal income.
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Comment: Tam was active as Minister of
Security and later as Acting Governor of Tonkin for a period of five
months prior to March 1952. His repressive police methods and his
liquidation of the popular nationalistic Dai Viet Party, the principal
rival of the pro-French ruling faction which Tam represents, earned
him the enmity of the Tonkinese. The incumbent governor of Tonkin
is reported to have tendered his resignation on learning of the Tam
appointment, but was ordered by Bao Dai to remain on duty.
EASTERN EUROPE
4A Ambassador Kennan comments on Rumanian situation:
The American Ambassador in Moscow sug-
gests that the recent changes in Rumania
may be part of a new phase in Soviet foreign
policy. He speculates that as a result of
the present German crisis, the USSR may exploit puppet Satellite
forces more boldly to heighten international tension and that, as part
of this move, the Russians are taking further steps toward including
Rumania in the USSR.
The Ambassador does not feel that integra-
tion is imminent, but he suggests the possibility that the present
purges and reform of the judicial system may be partly intended to
lead the way.
Comment: Although the timing of the
Rumanian purges appears to connect them with the East-West struggle
In Europe rather than with purely internal causes, a power struggle
within the party hierarchy is the major factor.
WESTERN EUROPE
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5. Italy prepares to resume direct discussions with Yugoslavia over Trieste:
Italy will propose that direct discussions with
Yugoslavia on Trieste be held in London, ac-
cording to the Secretary of the Italian Foreign
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Ministry. Appropriate instructions are being sent to the Italian
Ambassadors in Washington, London, and Paris.
The Italian official pointed out that Italy has
not yet replied to the most recent Yugoslav proposal.
Comment: The Italians favor London as the
conference site because they now believe that Britain will assume a
sympathetic attitude toward Italy.
Foreign Secretary Eden agreed with Secretary
Acheson on 27 May that Britain and the United States should consider
"imposing" a Trieste settlement on Italy and Yugoslavia.
6. Soviet air preparedness measures in East Germany:
/Soviet fighter aircraft
based in East Germany used two Frankfurt-
Berlin flights in the air corridor as practice
targets. In the first case, Soviet aircraft, apparently under ground-
control-intercept direction, reported "we are attacking" a Frankfurt-
Berlin flight; in the second instance, Soviet aircraft followed a corri-
dor flight for approximately 15 miles before returning to their base.
Comment: No Western aircraft were
actually attacked on 26 May.
Besides giving further evidence of Soviet
sensitivity to corridor flights by Western aircraft,
;;an effort to prepare Soviet air and ground crews for possible
Iire operations or harassing measures against air traffic between
Berlin and the West zones.
Other measures to achieve a greater degree
of readiness in the 24th Air Army are revealed by fairly reliable reports
which indicate practice alerts in March at two Soviet airfields in the
Berlin area.
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LA TIN AMERICA
7. Argentine exile predicts June revolt against Peron:
A June revolt against the Argentine Govern-
ment, starting with Peron's assassination,
has been predicted by an exiled high-ranking
naval officer. He states that the future
government will be a three-man military junta.
The exiled officer is confident that even a
weak revolt could oust Peron in view of the present economic crisis
and the government's inadequate control over the interior, He con-
siders the military capabilities of the General Confederation of Labor
"highly overrated," and states that the army has some hidden arms.
Comment: Numerous reports have been
received of an impending revolutionary attempt, but none has indicated
how the unidentified plotters would be able to circumvent Peron's
rigorous security measures. The armed services have been purged
of officers of doubtful loyalty, and there is no evidence of cooperation
among civilian opposition groups.
Peron has frequently urged the powerful labor
confederation, reportedly armed, to be ready to rise against those who
might attempt a revolution.
Guatemalan agrarian reform bill:
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Comni.ent: The agrarian reform bill, promised
by the Guatemalan Constitution of 1945 and strongly urged by President
Arbenz, is now being discussed in the National Congress and is likely to
be passed.
Although the Communists in Guatemala are
strong and have consistently demanded a wider distribution of land, there
is no evidence that they had any part in the formulation of the present
bill, which appears to be a relatively moderate, albeit impractical, at-
tempt to solve the country's agrarian problem.
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