CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/03/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02016343
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 15, 1952

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11E, I Nor
SEC INFORMATION
15 March 1952
Copy No. 4 3
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANCE IN CLASS.
1-1 DECLASSIFIED
CLAS:3, CHANCED TO: T3
NEXT REVEIN DATr�
AUTH: HR
DATEM.M"r1
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1.
(page 3).
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2.
Political upheaval in Thailand reported under way (page
3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3.
Mossadeq again rejects possible use of British technicians
(page 4).
4.
Iraqi Prime Minister may soon resign (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5.
Italy agrees to Trieste elections (page 5).
6.
France favors conditional answer to Soviet note on German peace
treaty (page 6).
7.
Belgian Cabinet pessimistic regarding country's defense
commitments (page 7).
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1.
FAR EAST
The Peiping radio denied on 13 March that
epidemic conditions prevailed in North Korea. Poor sanitary conditions,
the generally low level of immunization among the civilian population,
and the lack of an effective lousicide makes such an outbreak a constant
possibility.
Political upheaval in Thailand reported under way:
Late reports state that the Thai Navy seized
the King on 14 March, and that the resignation
of the Thai Cabinet is imminent. A clique led
by Generals Phin and Phao intends to remove
Premier Phibun and assume control of the administration. General
Sarit, commander of the Bangkok garrison, is reportedly attempting
to ally himself with Phibun in an effort to block the plans of the Phin-
Phao group.
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Comment: Elements of the Thai Navy have
been attempting, unsuccessfully thus far, to restore the Navy's politi-
cal strength which was all but destroyed after the attempted coup in
June 1951. It is not yet clear, if this report of the King's seizure is
true, whether the Navy is acting independently or cooperating with one
of the groups contending for control of the government.
Phibun personally stated earlier this week
that his cabinet would resign about 15 March. The rivalry between
the Sarit and Phin-Phao factions has long been recognized as the most
likely source of open conflict in Thailand.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Mossadeq again rejects possible use of British technicians:
Prime Minister Mossadeq has stated em-
phatically to Ambassador Henderson that he
would never agree to the re-entry of British
oil technicians into Iran. If an agreement
with the International Bank were contingent upon the return of the
British, however, he would retire rather than block a settlement.
Someone else, Mossadeq added, could take the responsibility for Iran's
future.
Comment: One of the main points blocking
an agreement between Iran and the International Bank is Iranian in-
sistence that no British technicians should be employed. The Bank
holds that it should be free to hire any personnel necessary.
4. Iraqi Prime Minister may soon resign:
Iraqi Prime Minister Nun i Said is about to
resign,
Since Parliament has ra e
new oil agreement with the Iraq Petroleum
Company and since the Middle East Command
issue is being "soft-pedalled for the present," Nun, who has held the
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premiership for over a year, is reported eager to let another Iraqi
leader dissolve Parliament and supervise the holding of new elections.
The French Minister believes that the next
Prime Minister will be an independent because such an appointment
might avoid conflict between Nurits majority party, the Constitutional
Union, and the new Socialist National Party.
Comment: The Iraqi Regent reportedly has
summoned political leadersfor consultations on the formation of a new
government which would supervise elections if Parliament is dissolved
in May.
Any forthcoming change of cabinet in Baghdad
is not likely to alter Iraq's generally pro-West alignment.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Italy agrees to Trieste elections:
Italy is in agreement with scheduling the 3.3(h)(2)
Trieste elections for 25 May, the date set
for the local elections in southern Italy, provided
they are held under Italian law.
Italy has dropped its earlier objections to the
elections because it feels that an impasse has been reached in its nego-
tiations with Yugoslavia.
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Prospects for a victory of the pro-Italian
democratic parties in the Trieste Zone A elections may be jeopardized
by the Catholic Action group, which objects on religious grounds to
Christian Democratic cooperation with the other moderate Italian parties.
6. France favors conditional answer to Soviet note on German peace treaty:
French Foreign Office spokesmen believe that
the Western replies to the recent Soviet note
on a German peace treaty should not treat the
issue as an isolated one, because confining
discussion to Germany would be in the Russian interest. The French
recommend that the West state that any quadripartite conference on this
question should not take place until the long-standing Austrian treaty
negotiations are concluded and until Germany has a single government
formed as a result of free elections throughout the country.
One Foreign Office spokesman expects that
the Soviet about-face on German rearmament will greatly embarrass
the French Communists.
Comment: French hopes for a demilitarized
Germany were largely dissipated by the failure of the Big Four Deputies
Conference last spring. The firm stand then taken by the West against
further concessions to the USSR was well received by the French public.
Since last summer, the French Governmenthas
adopted a progressively firmer policy on Communist activities in
France, and little public pressure for renewed negotiations is likely
unless Russia offers real concessions.
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7. Belgian Cabinet pessimistic regarding country's defense commitments:
The Belgian Prime Minister and the Finance 3.3(h)(2)
and Foreign Ministers state that their country
cannot meet the financial burden growing out
of its defense effort.
The Prime Minister said that deterioration
of the Belgian economy is the real problem and that "nobody believes
western Europe is now in danger of Soviet military agression." The
Finance Minister asserted that he will not agree to inflationary
measures to meet rearmament needs.
The leaders of the government party are
seriously considering a reduction in the present two-year conscription
period. Defense Minister De Greef has threatened to resign if this
step is taken, since he feels that the present military program could
not then be accomplished.
Comment: Despite numerous American
representations that the country's economy could be expanded without
serious danger to provide a higher level of defense production, Belgium
has been increasingly reluctant to undertake greater financial com-
mitments even on a piecemeal basis.
Defense Minister De Greef, an able, non-
party military man, has been largely responsible for carrying out the
expansion of the Belgian Army ahead of schedule. His resignation
would seriously retard efforts to secure increased Belgian defense
commitments.
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