CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/08/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02014438
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: August 15, 1951

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15 Aug 1951
Copy No. C
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLAS
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VIEWER:. 3.5(c)
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
Comment on Soviet participation in the Japanese peace treaty
conference (page 3).
2. Egyptian Foreign Minister planning abrogation of treaty in October
(page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Chinese Communist intent to invade Burma is reported (page 4)0
SOUTH ASIA
Indian Home Minister wishes to resign over war crisis (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Trieste compromise suggested (page 5).
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. French critical of Acheson proposals for German rearmament (page '7).
8. New treason law would restrict Allied information in Germany (page 7).
90 Bumper wheat crop relieves pressure on Spanish Government (page 8).
TO RET
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GENERAL
Comment on Soviet participation in the Japanese 'peace treaty conference:
The Soviet decision to attend the Japanese peace
conference is an indication of concern over Western plans to proceed without
the USSR if necessary1 it is also a sign of Soviet inability to hinder the con-
clusion of the treaty and to prevent widespread adherence to it. The con-
ference will offer the USSR the opportunity to exploit objections to the joint
US-UK sponsored draft held mainly by E;ar Eastern nations over questions
such as reparations, rearmament and Chinese representation.
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2. Effvntian Foreiffn Minister Planning abrogation of treaty in October:
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� The Egyptian Foreign Minister has informed the
� US AMbassador in Cairo that he does not intend
to abrogate the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty during the
present parliamentary session but to wait proba-
bly until Octobet The British Ambassador has been ,instructed to intitnate
to the Egyptian authorities -- in ease there is danger of an early explosion�
that progress is being made on the study of a "new approach" to the defense
of the Middle East.
Conment: This delay in abrogating the treaty
beyond the August date that the Foreign Minister had previously mentioned,
would seem to reflect the influence of the King, who does not want to have
the negotiations with the British broken off. The "new approach" being stud-
ied by Britain is probably the Middle East theater command proposal now
under discusision in the Standing Group of NATO. This proposal envisages a
multilateral defense setup for the Eastern Mediterranean under British
command,.
Britain evidently hopes that if it offers to in-
clude Egypt in a regional defense pact, Egypt may agree to foreign partici-
pation in Canal defenses.
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� �
FAR EAST
. Chinese Communist intent to invade Burma is reported: 3.3(h)(2)
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/the Chinese Communists
are planning to invade the Burmese state of
Kengtung (see attached map). Some 21, 000
Chinese Communist troops reportedly are concentrated along the northern
border of Kengtung, with 2, 000 stationed farther north near the Burma Road.
The informant states that the plan envisages a "combined attack by Chinese
and Burmese Communists."
Comment: Unsupported reports and rumors that
the Chinese Communists will invade Burma have been rife in that country for
several months. The Peiping regime may well have stimulated such specu-
lation in order to keep the Chinese community in Burma subservient and to
increase pressure on the Burmese Government.
According to reliable reports, in recent months
the Chinese Communists have stationed from 20,000 to 30, 000 troops near
the Burmese border just north of Kengtung, and latest information indicates
that their numbers may have been increased.
In June, Chinese Nationalist forces, possibly
numbering over 10, 000, invaded Yunnan across the northern Kengtung bor-
der. This: group was badly defeated by the Communists and driven back into
Kengtung. It is plausible that a Communist force of 15, 000 to 20, 000 has
followed the Nationalists to the border and is planning to cross the border on
the pretext of destroying these Nationalist remnants. Bunnese'forces in the
area in question are negligible.
SOUTH ASIA
Indian Home Minister wishes to resign over war crisis:
3.3(h)(2)
In early August, Indian Home Minister
Rajagopalachari reportedly told a south Indian
member of Parliament that he wanted to resign
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from his post to avoid the blot that would fall on
his public career if. an Indo-Pakistani war broke
out. Previously, the Indian press had reported
his desire to resign for reasons of health.
Comment: The Home Minister, himself a south
Indian, is one of the country's most capable and most highly respected
statesmen. The recent resignation of India's Communications Minister, as
well as the requests of Prime Minister Nehru and the Education Minister to
be relieved of duties on two top policy-Making committees of the Congress
Party, strongly suggest that they also wish to dissociate themselves from
any actions of the increasingly militant Congress Party that may lead to war
with Pakistan. The Communications and Education Ministers are Moslems.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Trieste compromise suggested:
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Tito has informed US Ambassador Allen that the
the Yugoslav Government is most anxious to
settle the Trieste question because it remains
the outstanding problem in Yugoslav relations
with the West, and its settlement would materi-
ally strengthen the common front against Comin-
form aggression.
Tito offered three alternative solutions for
settlement of the Trieste issue: (a) the maintenance of the status quo (inter-
preted by Allen to mean the division of Trieste along present zonal bound-
aries rather than a continuation of the present military regime); (b) the es-
tablishment of a Zone B autonomous regime with provisions for minority
rights; or (c) a territorial exchange by which Yugoslavia would relinquish
the coastal district of Capodistria in exchange for "some Slovene villages in
Zone A'1,.� 3.3(h)(2)
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Comment; The chief obstacle to a compromise
settlement appears to be disposition of the predominantly Italian coastal
cities in Zone B, which Tito's suggestion of giving up Capodistria does not
cover.
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WESTERN EUROPE
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French critical of Acheson proposalsior German rearmament:
The French Foreign Office has tentative reser-
vations toward the speedy solution for the prob-
lem of German rearmament proposed in the
recent personal letter from Secretary of State
Acheson to Foreign Minister Schuman. While the French admit that simul-
taneous settlement of both political and military aspects of the problem is
logical and desirable, they believe that unconditional political equality cannot
be granted to the Bonn Government lest the Germans subsequently "find a
way to welsh' on making a defense contribution.
The French Foreign Office thinks also that
public and political opinion is not yet prepared for such an "extreme" idea
as German membership in NATO, and it fears that the proposal to discuss
this point in September may arouse French opposition to other features of
German rearmament.
Comment: The basic French premise is that
the political arrangement with the Federal Republic should not take the form
of inter-governmental agreements, but rather of a confract between the
supreme Allied authority in Germany and the Bonn Government. The recent
German unilateral action increasing the export price on Ruhr coal, as well
as the stiff bargaining position generally adopted by the Germans, is making
the French Government increasingly wary of further concessions to Germany.
New treason law would restrict Allied information in Germany:
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The US High Commission in Frankfurt points
out that the new German treason law is much
broader than similar laws in other countries and,
although aimed at the Communists, might be in-
terpreted to the detriment of the Allies. Inforcement of this law might pre-
vent the volunteering of information to the Occupation Powers, especially to
Allied intelligence agencies, and might permit the Allies to have access to
information only in reserved fields.
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The Germans ignored an order to submit the
law for the consideration of the Allied High Commission; they have, however,
obeyed a further order to refrain from signing the law until consultations
can take place.
The High Commission is reluctant to disapprove
the law, as this would mean delaying anti-Communist legislation. In-
stead, it is considering passage of a High Commission law to give full pro-
tection to communications and relations between the Germans and the Allies.
Comment: The Germans want, as much as
possible, to have the full range of powers of an independent nation when the
new contractual arrangements go into effect. They intend to hold down
special Allied occupation rights to a minimum, and are particularly con-
cerned to maintain exclusive control over "state secrets.
9. Bumper wheat crop relieves pressure on Spanish Government:
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The Minister of Agriculture recently announced
that Spain's 1951 crop prospects are the best in
50 years. Informed government sources say
that this year's estimated total of four million
metric tons, an increase of 30 per cent over the 1950 harvest figure, should
fill Spain's current rations requirements.
Comment: The record wheat harvest should
ease public pressure on the government for improved rations of this staple
food. The Spanish Government's frantic efforts in May and June to purchase
foreign wheat reflected a fear that a reduction in the already meager wheat
ration might become necessary, which would further aggravate the grave
Internal situation then existing in Spain. By paying premium prices for this
year's surplus wheat and by continuing to press for wheat credits under the
US Export-Import Bank loans agreement, the Madrid government may be
able to collect sufficient stocks to increase and improve the wheat ration
without raising the quotas of forced deliveries.
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