CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/01/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02008405
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 4, 1952

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4 January 1952
Copy No.
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
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1. Moscow Embassy comments on Stalin's message to the japanese people
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. French staff officers acknowledge intensity of Viet Minh offensive (page 3).
3. French Ambassador in Moscow foresees Chinese invasion of Thailand
(page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. New Chinese Communist offer of foodgrains to India reported (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on proposed sale of Iranian oil to Czechoslovakia (page 5).
6. Egypt urges Turkey to leave Middle East Command (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Popular unrest over government economic policy stirs Budapest (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Schuman discounts Benelux opposition to European Defense Community
(page 7).
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1. Moscow Embassy comments on Stalin's message to the Japanese people:
The US Embassy in Moscow states that Stalin's 3.3(h)(2)
message to the Japanese people reflects the
importance the USSR now attaches to alienating
them from American policy in Japan and possibly
"increasing Japanese trade with Soviet Russia and Communist China.
The leading Moscow newspapers highlighted
Stalin's tradition-breaking message, which seems to the Embassy to be a
powerful appeal to Japanese socialists, intellectuals and labor unionists
dissatisfied with the "separate peace." Concurrently, the Soviet press
reported a Japanese newspaper interview advocating a peace movement in
Japan and the necessity of trade with the Chinese Communists.
Comment: Stalin's message, obviously issued
for its propaganda value, represents the latest of a number of conciliatory
Soviet moves, principally of an economic nature, towards Japan since the
signing of the peace treaty at San Francisco. The message, with its
explanation of why the Soviet premier should address the people of another
state, reflects the present weakness of the Soviet position in Japan.
FAR EAST
2. French staff officers acknowledge intensity of Viet Minh offensive:
Officers of the French General Staff in Hanoi 3.3(h)(2)
state that Viet Minh action during December was
the largest and longest sustained attack which
the Viet Minh has yet been able to launch. A
"tremendous" advance in Viet Minh staff-command functioning was noted,
as well as greatly improved communications. The increased enemy
capabilities were attributed to supplies from China.
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Several officers predicted that the Viet Minh,
owing to the heavy losses it has sustained, would not launch another attack
within a month. On the other hand, French troops are extremely tired, and
mobility within the perimeter is a serious problem. Replacement of equip-
ment is "urgently needed" -- some battalions have only one truck.
Comment: The estimate that the Viet Minh will
not launch another attack within a month may be overly optimistic. The
misty season in Tonkin, which is now beginning and will last intermittently
until April, will considerably aid the Viet Minh by reducing the effectiveness
of French air operations.
3. French Ambassador in Moscow foresees Chinese invasion of Thailand:
a recent Chinese Communist communique,
reprinted by the Soviet press, foreshadows
imminent Chinese military action against Thailand.
Peiping, convinced3.3(h)(2)
of the impossibility of reaching an agreement in the Korean talks, has de-
cided not to postpone its plans for expansion in Southeast Asia.
Peiping is aware of the Soviet desire to avoid global
hostilities and thus prefers to attack Thailand rather than Indochina.
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Comment: The communique in question is a
recent Peiping release accusing the US of transporting 70,000 Nationalist
troops from Formosa to Thailand to reinforce Nationalist forces in the China-
Burma border area. Peiping made similar charges of US-Thai collusion on
several occasions in 1951.
In order to invade Thailand, Chinese Communist
forces would have to proceed through either Burma or Indochina. In any
case, there is no reliable evidence that Peiping plans to invade any area of
Southeast Asia at this time.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. New Chinese Communist offer of foodgrains to India reported:
The Chinese Communist government states it3.3(h)(2)
has three million tons of milo, a coarse food-
grain, and 100,000 to 200,000 tons of rice
available for sale to India in 1952, according to
an official in the Indian Food Ministry. The Indian official considers these
figures to be inflated, but he thinks that one million tons of milo and some
rice would be available.
Comment: The Chinese offer was reported to
the US Embassy in New Delhi shortly after the Indian Government had
announced it planned to import five million tons of foodgrains in 1952, of
which one million would be required as a loan from the United States, The
Indians are presumably aware of the hesitance of certain elements in the US
Government to deliver even the last half of the two million tons of US food-
grains loaned to India in 1951. As they did in the past year, they may be
using the present Chinese offer to ensure American consideration of their
1952 food problems.
Communist China sold India about half a million
tons of milo and rice at reasonable prices in 1951 and probably has at least
a million tons available this year.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on proposed sale of Iranian oil to Czechoslovakia:
Arrangements were reportedly made in Tehran
last week for an early visit by a Czech delegation to negotiate an oil sale
agreement. Iran had announced in September that negotiations with Czecho-
slovakia were under way, but these never materialized. Iran's need for oil
customers is greater now and it is currently emphasizing the fact that
Czechoslovakia is a former customer of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.
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There is no evidence. that Czechoslovakia could
obtain the tankers to implement such an agreement in the near future. It is
logical for the USSR to promote a Czech-Iranian agreement for its propaganda
impact on Iran and the entire Near East. A small payment to Iran would also
benefit Soviet policy by encouraging a continued intransigence on the part of
the Mossadeq government and thus add to the deteriorating internal situation
in Iran. Utilization of satellite governments for such negotiations is standard
Soviet procedure.
6. Egypt urges Turkey to leave Middle East Command:
The Egyptian Foreign Minister and the Secretary 3.3(h)(2)
General of the Arab League have recommended
to Turkey that it dissociate itself from the Middle
East Command. III3.3(h)(2)
\reported
that the two men accused the British of hoodwinking Turkey and America and
of using the Command to perpetuate their own interests in the Near East,
Comment: Egypt's approach to Turkey, while it
will not change the government's position, is nevertheless adroitly aimed at
Turkish concern over a resurgence of British power in the Near East and
Turkish determination not to serve under a British Command in NATO�
The Secretary General of the Arab League, an
Egyptian, has been considered friendly toward the West. His reported
championing of the views of the Egyptian Foreign Minister underscores the
growth of extremism in Egypt.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Popular unrest over government economic policy stirs Budapest:
Budapest has been swept by inflationary panic 3.3(h)(2)
for the past two days, according to Budapest
Radio. Rumors of a currency reform provoked
the population into a frantic attempt to get rid
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of large banknotes as rapidly as possible.
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Further evidence of widespread unrest in Hungary
is the reported violence in a large Budapest body
works on 23 December when employees stopped work and protested the
management's failure to meet the payroll. The workers were reported to be
still on strike after the holidays.
Comment: These reports and recent indications
of unrest in Czechoslovakia highlight worker resentment at increasing official
demands. The panic in Budapest is the culmination of widespread currency
reform rumors resulting from reports that Hungarian currency printers were
locked in their plants and working under forced draft. Both Hungary and
Czechoslovakia are ripe for monetary reforms because of the accumulation
of purchasing power caused by scarcity of consumer goods.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Schuman discounts Benelux opposition to European Defense Community:
France, Germany and Italy are in substantial 3.3(h)(2)
accord on the European Defense Community as a
result of the recent meeting of the Foreign Minis-
ters of the participating countries, but the
Benelux coun ries stl object to several important points, especially the
common budget. At the meeting, Chancellor Adenauer made a strong appeal
to the Benelux Ministers, pointing out that without a common budget from the
very beginning, they would be faced with the revival of German militarism.
French Foreign Minister Schuman believes that
the creation of a European Defense Community is a certainty. He and
Premier Pleven plan to visit the Benelux countries before the next Ministers'
meeting in an effort to secure the necessary concessions. The French,
German, and Italian leaders feel that the United States and Britain might help
by "exercising persuasion."
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Comment: The recent meeting of the Foreign
Ministers had been expected to settle the political points on which the Paris
Conference has been deadlocked, but despite Schuman's optimism, these
problems are still unsolved. The press release at the end of the meeting
glosses over the remaining issues and implies that agreement was reached
on the composition of the executive authority and its relationship to the
council which will represent the national governments.
Belgium and the Netherlands can be expected to
accede to the common budget, but probably only in exchange for greater
national control of the executive authority.
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