CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/01/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02008404
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 3, 1952

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SECURITY FORMATION
3 January 1952
copy No. 47
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
i DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: 1'S,i;00
NEXT REVIEW DATE: -
HR 7iii2ad)
DATtillf
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUIUPT INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Tito considers danger of Soviet aggression lessening (page 3).
FAR EAST
2.
3. France reveals course in event of aggression in Indochina (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Egyptian King awaiting opportunity to appoint new government (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Use of UN Peace Commission in Yugoslav-Hungarian border dispute
suggested (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. France ready to press for European federation (page 6).
7. Communists exploit former German Chancellor in unity campaign
(page 7).
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GENERAL
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. Tito considers danger of Soviet aggression lessening:
2.
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In a recent conversation with an American UN 3.3(h)(2)
delegate, Tito stated that he thought the danger
of outright Soviet aggression was lessening in
proportion to the rearmament and strengthening
of the non-Cominform world. He believes that Stalin and other high Soviet
authorities remain prisoners of their preconceived notions concerning
capitalism and still expect to, bring about the defeat of the West through the
latter's economic collapse.
Comment: Yugoslav leaders had previously
indicated that they consider ihe'danger of Soviet attack greatest in the year
1952 since the USSR might not wait until the West reaches its peak of pre-
paredness in 1954. Tito's statement is consistent, however, with his
previous assertions that Western strength is a primary deterrent to Soviet
aggression.
FAR EAST
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3. France reveals course in event of aggression in Indochina:
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The French Government, in an aide memoire 3.3(h)(2)
presented to the US Embassy in Paris, stated
that it would appeal to the UN if Chinese Commu-
nist participation in the war in Indochina became
unmistakable. France would ask for sanctions against Communist China and
for participation of UN armed forces in the defense of Indochina. French
recourse to the UN would not prejudice requests to the US and Britain for
immediate aid.
In view of the possibility that Chinese inter-
vention might be of suc h a character as to threaten gravely the French forces
in Indochina but not sufficiently defined to warrant a UN decision, the French
Government "keenly desires" an immediate conference of American, British
and French Chiefs of Staff on the subject of Southeast Asia's defense.
Comment: Current evidence indicates that the
Chinese Communists still are concentrating on the build-up of Viet Minh
forces by providing material aid and technical advisers rather than by the
commitment of Chinese Communist units. This policy is calculated to main-
tain the "indigenous" character of the Viet Minh army while at the same time
increasing its strength.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Egyptian King awaiting opportunity to appoint new government:
According to the new Chief of the Royal Cabinet, 3.3(h)(2)
King Farouk is taking precautions to avoid the
appearance that any action he might take in
causing a change of government in Egypt would
be British-inspired.
The British Ambasador has warned his Foreign
Office that a solution of the present problem is impossible without a minimum
concession on the Sudan. He believes that this concession might be British
recognition of King Farouk's new title within a framework providing for
Sudanese self-determination.
Comment: King Farouk has shown increasing
eagerness to bring about the fall of the present Wafd government. There is
considerable doubt, however, whether even Western acceptance of Farouk's
title of "King of Egypt and the Sudan" would sufficiently pacify aroused
Egyptian public opinion to enable the dismissal of the majority party govern-
ment without serious internal disturbances.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Use of UN Peace Commission in Yugoslav-Hungarian border dispute suggested:
The Yugoslav-Hungarian border dispute over a 3.3(h)(2)
small island located in the Mura River provides a
suitable occasion for the Yugoslays to request an
investigation by the newly created UN Balkan
subcommission, in the opinion of Ambassador Allen, The Ambassador believes
that a Yugoslav request for the services of the subcommission would be
particularly appropriate at this time in view of the strong UN support recently
given to Yugoslavia's resolution citing Cominforrn pressures.
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Comment: Heretofore, Yugoslavia has
opposed the presence of any UN "watchdog unit."
Although Hungarian occupation of the island
on 20 December has created a potentially explosive border situation, the
Yugoslav Government has given no indication of unilateral retaliatory action.
On 27 December, however, Yugoslavia officially protested the occupation of
the island and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Hungarian soldiers.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. France ready to press for European federation:
Premier Pleven has indicated to Ambassador 3.3(h)(2)
Bruce that he may soon call for a European
"constitutional convention" inasmuch as a
favorable reception by the states to be invited
now seems certain. He is hesitating chiefly from fear that the move might
be viewed in France as a "tricky attempt to divert attention from the
dangerous financial difficulties."
Both General Eisenhower and Ambassador Bruce
are anxious that the call be issued at once, particularly because of the
"ever-present possibility" of a government crisis.
Comment: Although the Council of Europe was
originally intended to be the nucleus of a true federation with some sovereign
powers, the slow progress on the European Defense Forces plan is pushing
France toward a different approach to European unity.
A recent communique of the Foreign Ministers
of the European Defense Forces countries envisages a delay of as much as
nine months before the convening of an "international conference" on
European unity and leaves open the question whether progress can be made
beyond a weak confederation.
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7. Communists exploit former German Chancellor in unity campaign:
Certain West German political leaders are 3.3(h)(2)
concerned over Soviet and East German ex-
ploitation of joseph Wirth, a former Centrist
Chancellor of the Weimar Republic, in the current
unity campaign. Wirth, now in the Soviet sector of Berlin as a guest of the
Communists, has reportedly already seen important Soviet and East German
officials.
The former Chancellor, who is embittered
against the present West German government for neglecting him politically,
reportedly plans to send a letter to all members of the West German Par-
liament denouncing Adenauer as a separatist and traitor and attacking the
Schuman Plan and the West German position on unification. Official concern
is felt over the possible effect of such a letter, since Wirth 's name is thought
still to carry weight among older generation Germans and in neutralist circles.
Comment:l
Wirth has not been politically influential in
postwar Germany, and the effect of any letter he may send to parliamentary
delegates may be undercut somewhat by recent press reports of his presence
in Berlin as the guest of the Communists. Nevertheless this, as well as
Pastor Niemoeller's current trip to Moscow, represents increased Soviet
East German pressure on vulnerable West German political elements.
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