CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/12/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02008398
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 23, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
23 December 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
47
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NEXT REVIEW DATE.
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REVill`NER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
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3.3(h)(2)
2. Trial of US fliers in Hungary believed ordered by Moscow (page 3).
FAR EAST
3.3
SOUTH ASIA
5. Comment on failure of Graham's Kashmir mission (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Lebanese fear revival of foreign spheres of influence in Near East (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Yugoslav political interests conflict with military requirements (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French maintain basic position on security controls (page 7).
9. West Germans want defense contribution removed from contractual
agreement (page 8).
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2. Trial of US fliers in Hungary believed ordered by Moscow:
3.3(h)(2)
The US Legation in Budapest, in view of the
announced decision of the Hungarian Government
to try four American fliers recently forced down
by Soviet military aircraft in Hungary, feels that
'only a direct approach to the highest level of the Soviet Government can in-
fluence the course of events. The Legation is of the opinion that Moscow
gave the orders to try the crew and feels that appropriate instructions from
Russia could result in the Hungarian court considering the confinement to
date as adequate "punishment" of the fliers.
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Comment: The decision to bring the fliers to
trial on charges of premeditated espionage is completely contrary to previ-
ously established. Orbit policy of returning such military personnel. This
action reflects the great seriousness with which the USSR regards the
Mutual Security Act as a threat to the stability of the Satellite regimes.
FAR EAST
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SOUTH ASIA
5. Comment on failure of Graham's Kashmir mission:
The failure of Dr. Frank Graham, United Nations
Representative for India and Pakistan, to bring about a settlement in the
Kashmir dispute "at this stage" is likely to create widespread unfavorable
public and press comment in Pakistan. The UN has, in the past, been
bitterly assailed by Pakistani spokesmen for its failure to pin the blame on
India.
The new Pakistani Prime Minister, even more
cautious than his predecessor, may be expected to exert strong pressure
to maintain order in Pakistan despite a vociferous press.
The Graham report of no settlement, with no
attached criticism, will be given a favorable reception in Indian Government
circles, which do not wish the Kashmir dispute.to become an issue in the
present Indian elections to be concluded in January 1952. Despite periodic
conciliatory gestures, India has given most observers the impression that
it does not wish a compromise in Kashmir since it expects ultimately to
acquire all of it.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Lebanese fear revival of foreign spheres of influence in Near East:
3.3(h)(2)
A Lebanese parliamentary leader has expressed
his concern over reports that the British and
French have reached an agreement to end their
rivalry in the Near East. He believes that many
Lebanese will regard this as a step toward the reestablishment of foreign
spheres of influence.
The US Minister in Beirut comments that one of
the greatest Lebanese fears is the possible revival of a French sphere of
influence. He warns that, while "large-power cooperation in the Near East
is essential," the US must be "very careful not to be jockeyed into the
position of appearing in the eyes of people of the Near East to support
colonialism or spheres of influence. "
Comment: Fears of foreign spheres of influence
were voiced in late November by the Syrian Chief of Staff, who saw the
Middle East Command proposals as a possible vehicle for a revival of
French supremacy in Syria. More recently it was rumored that he executed
his recent coup in Syria with French support
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Yugoslav political interests conflict with military requirements: 3.3(h)(2)
mbassador Allen in Belgrade comments that,
n the event of a war, the Yugoslav Government is
oncerned lest Allied forces occupy Albanian
erritory and determine the political future of
he country.
In a recent conversation with Ambassador Allen,
General Popovic remarked that in the event of war political as well as
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military considerations might be involved in any action against Albania. He
did not elucidate upon this remark, but mentioned that the Yugoslav Army
could take care of Albanian land forces with ease.
Previously Marshal Tito, in answer to a question
as to what type of naval assistance he would require, had pointed out that the
most useful service of the US Sixth Fleet would be to deny the Adriatic Sea
and Albanian ports to the enemy.
Comment: Popovic's remarks reflect the con-
tinued interest of the Yugoslav Government in establishing a dominant
position in Albania.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French maintain basic position on security controls:
Although the French have made certain
cessions, they continue to insist that security
controls over German armament production be
handled by contractual arrangement with Bonn
ra er an roug e European Defense Community. The French spokesman
at the three-power security control talks in Paris claims that Foreign
Minister Schuman's position before the National Assembly will be "precarious"
and approval of the Defense Community treaty very doubtful if the French
Government cannot give assurance that the Germans will be bound by safe-
guards outside the treaty. The US Embassy in Paris believes that the French
intend no further concessions and that their preoccupation with their par-
liamentary situation is "by no means unwarranted or exaggerated."
If, at the 27 December meeting of the foreign
ministers of the European Defense Community, Schuman cannot persuade
Adenauer to accept a contractual arrangement, the British representative at
the security control talks will suggest to his government that the High Com-
missioners exert pressure on Adenauer to accept Schuman's proposal.
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Comment: Since all members of the European
Defense Community will enjoy equal status, the French believe that
security controls must be imposed on Germany before it is admitted to the
organization.
Last spring the Germans indicated that they
would accept whatever arms production limitations the French proposed. In
view of the short time remaining before the Lisbon NATO meeting, it is
possible that Adenauer will accede on this point, although his parliamentary
situation is almost as difficult as Schuman's.
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9. West Germans want defense contribution removed from contractual agreement:
3.3(h)(2)
At the first meeting of the Bonn working group on
the German financial contribution to Western
defense, the German representatives stated that
their contribution should be made direct to the
European Defense Community budget; EDC should pay the German bill for
Allied forces in Germany, thus obviating the need for a contractual agreement
convention on tl7is matter; and the Bonn discussions should be transferred to
the Paris EDC negotiations in order to avoid an unmanageable overlap.
The Allied representatives disagreed with these
views, citing among other things that the Bonn discussions deal with many
facets of the problem which the EDC meeting cannot cover.
Comment: The hard attitude adopted by the
Germans in the early phases of these discussions may be for bargaining pur-
poses, since Chancellor Adenauer recently instructed that all contractual
agreement conventions be concluded by 15 January. The Germans are deter-
mined, however, to avoid making a direct contribution to the Allied Forces,
since this resembles occupation costs.
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