CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/11/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02008389
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 24, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
24 November 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETtoro.
DOCUMENT NO.
M.) CHANGE IN CLASS.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
USSR
2. Comment on US plane missing in Far East (page 3).
FAR EAST
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5. MacDonald warns Burmese of growing Communist threat (page 5).
6. Indonesian Government may submit New Guinea issue to UN (page 5).
NEAR EAST
7. British concerned over rumors of US mediation in Iranian oil dispute
(page 6).
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WESTERN EUROPE
9. French Government's anti-inflation measures inadequate (page 7).
10. Italians favor return of their forces to Trieste (page 7).
11. Italians pVepared to proceed with European Defense Forces without
Benelux (page 8).
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GENERAL
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USSR
2. Comment on US plane missing in Far East:
An announcement on 23 November in the Moscow
press that the Soviet Government had awarded two navy fliers the Order of
the Red Banner for "exemplary fulfillment of their service duties, " recalls
the granting of similar awards shortly after the Baltic plane incident in
April, 1950. At that time the same decoration was awarded to four Soviet
air force lieutenants "for excellent fulfillment of their duty."
It is almost certain that the present decorations
were given in connection with the missing US navy bomber which Deputy
Foreign Minister Grornyko claimed had violated the Soviet border 100 miles
east of Vladivostok on 6 November. As was the case in 1950, no details of
the actions meriting the award were furnished.
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FAR EAST
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MacDona d warns Burmese of growing Communist threat:
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Malcolm MacDonald, the British Commissioner
General in Southeast Asia, during a recent visit
to Rangoon attempted to arouse the apprehensions
of Burmese leaders to the internal and external
Communist pressures which now seriously menace their regime. He urged
the Burmese to undertake strong measures to defeat the Communist insur-
gents and specifically recommended steps to improve the training and morale
of the Burmese armed forces and a settlement of the Karen problem.
MacDonald felt that Burmese officials, although outwardly responsive to his
ideas, were not as concerned as the situation appeared to warrant.
Comment: It is doubtful that the Commissioner
General has been successful in "shaking the widespread Burmese complacency
toward Communism and stimulating Burmese authorities to more vigorous
efforts to suppress Communist activities. The continuing deterioration of
the Burmese Government's political and military position will tempt the in-
fluential pro-Communist faction of the Socialist Party to seek the removal of
moderate leaders and assume complete control of the government.
6. Indonesian Government may submit New Guinea issue to UN: 3.3(h)(2)
If the New Guinea question is not settled through
bilateral Dutch-Indonesian negotiations, Indo-
nesia may place the issue before the UN.
Although the Cabinet may wish to take a moder-
a ew Guinea issue, Such a position would be used by left-
wing groups as an excuse to force its fall.
Comment: Communist and left-wing groups
both inside and outside Parliament have consistently tried to relate the
New Guinea issue to general dissatisfaction over Dutch-Indonesian agree-
ments signed in 1949. The Indonesian Cabinet has been proceeding cautiously
in the current New Guinea crisis and, although indicating that it may be
forced to dissolve the Netherlands-Indonesian Union, probably prefers less
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drastic action. Should the renewal of bilateral negotiations with the Dutch
prove impossible, the Indonesian Government may attempt to avoid both
International and domestic complications by placing the New Guinea issue
before the UN.
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7. British concerned over rumors of US mediation in Iranian oil dispute:3.3(h)(2)
British officials in Tehran, alarmed by Iranian
ress reports that Mossadeq will continue to
iscuss the oil problem with the US Ambassador,
ave intimated their hope that the stories are
U.. oun The Ambassador comments that the British are "extremely
anxious" that Prime Minister Mossadeq should return to Iran, not onl33.3(h)(2)
empty-handed, but without any prospects for further negotiations.
Comment: \
Anti-
British sentiment, already strong in Iran, will probably increase as
Mossadeq blames the British for the country's economic difficulties. It is
unlikely that any successor to Mossadeq would be able to effect any settle-
ment of the oil dispute which could be construed as appeasement of foreign
interests at Iranian expense.
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3.3(h)(2)
WESTERN EUROPE
9. French Government's anti-inflation measures inadequate:
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The ECA Mission in Paris agrees with Bank of
France officials that the credit controls recently
adopted will not check the inflation in France
unless they are supplemented by steps to stop
the rise of wages and prices and to clarify the outlook for the 1952 budget.
Comment The government's narrow ma/gin
in the 20 November vote of confidence makes the adoption of adequate anti-
inflation measures more than ever unlikely. Unless such measures are
taken soon, however, the inflation will gather considerably more headway
before firm announcements of a prospective budget and US dollar aid program
can be expected to help bring the situation under control.
IQ. Italians favor return of their forces to Trieste: 3.3(h)(2)
An official of the Italian Foreign Office recently
told the US Ambassador, in a "purely informal"
conversation, that any disadvantage of a settle-
ment of the Trieste question might be compen-
sated through retention of some troops in Trieste
under another "Leghorn arrangement" The
Ambassador emphasizes that in any Trieste
settlement, an announcement that Italian troops
wou y enter the area would undoubtedly help greatly in counter-
acting popular resentment in Italy over loss of territory to Yugoslavia.
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The US Ambassador in Belgrade believes that
from the Yugoslav point of view, there is no reason to hesitate in assuring
the Italian Government that American and British forces will leave Zone A
of the Free Territory if the Italians and Yug slays reach an accord. He feels
the Yugoslays might secretly prefer that the troops remain, but could hardly
take this position openly.
Comment: There have been indications that the
Italian Government attaches great importance to a termination of the Allied
administration of Trieste and desires Italian forces to be installed there.
11. Italians prepared to proceed with European Defense Forces without Benelux:
The Italian representative to the European 3.3(h)(2)
Defense Forces conference has expressed to the
US representative a considerable anxiety over
the recent adverse Benelux reaction to the
onference and asked what the "US intended to do
about it?"
The Italian official states that if the Benelux
countries withdraw from this project, the important thing is "to get on with
European integration, " which implies that Italy would continue with Germany
and France in an effort to integrate their armed forces. He believes that
the achievement of this objective would simultaneously solve the German
problem and give the youth of Europe a positive ideal for which to fight.
Comment: The views of this official indicate
that the Italian Government is concerned lest integration of European Defense
Forces be delayed and is anxious for the US to take more vigorous action
to encourage such integration.
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