CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/10/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02008379
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 5, 1951

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Nire visf
5 October 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
II .DECLASSIRED
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PATV /04.2 r REVIEWER:
47
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
USSR
1. Prospects for Soviet industrial expansion considered
poor (page 3).
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6. Italians end opposition to European Defense Forces (page 6).
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USSR
1. Prospects for Soviet industrial expansion considered poor:
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From a recently completed survey of 3.3(h)(2)
current Soviet industrial expansion and
its immediate production prospects, Embassy
Moscow concludes that the rate of industrial
expansion in the USSR for 1951-d9.55 will "taper off" well below the rate
of the past five years. Main reasons for this anticipated decline are the
strict limitations on Soviet labor reserves and plant capacity, and the
government's failure to achieve a substantial increase in industrial
efficiency and labor productivity.
Direct Embassy observations in the past
year in Moscow and other areas attest to continuing low productivity of
Soviet workers due to improper use and maintenance of machinery and
backward work techniques. The USSR also continues to suffer from a
shortage of labor.
The Embassy believes that an attempt to
increase military and civilian output simultaneously would restrict the
USSR to minor progress in each sphere. Any sizable increase in Soviet
armaments and armed forces will therefore show an absolute decline in
non-military output.
c9mment:
Embassy's thesis that a tight economic
situation continues in the USSR. Attempts to circumvent export controls,
Increased demands for Satellite capital goods and appeals for more
efficient exploitation of existing plant facilities seem to substantiate this
opinion. However, if labor reserves have not yet been completely ex-
hausted, some increase in productivity can be expected in the period
1951-1955. As output increases, some drop in the rate of increase is
to be expected.
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6. Italians end opposition to European Defense Forces:
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The highlight of the most recent session of
the European Defense Forces conference
was a report by the Italian delegate to the
effect that the Italian Government was
prepared to accept the interim report as a basis of discussion on most
questions, and to drop a number of its previous reservations.
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On the provisions for financing the
European Defense Forces, which they had seriously opposed, the
Italians are now willing to join with other powers in the transfer of
some control over military, budgets to the European Assembly.
Comment: As previously believed, Italian
opposition to European Defense Forces plans was intended to strengthen
De Gasperi's bargaining position at Ottawa and Washipgton. Premier
De Gasperi's Christian Democrats will probably be able to win
Italian Parliamentary approval for financing European defense plans.
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