CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02003059
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 9, 1951

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9 May 1951
Copy No. CI -1
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
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�fine of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR proposes Big Five meeting to prepare Japanese Peace treaty
(page 3).
2. Attitude of UK delegate continues to delay Yugoslav aid talks (page 4).
FAR EAST
3.3(h)(2)
4. UK High Commissioner's views on the situation in Vietnam (page 5).
5. problem of Chinese Nationalist troops in Burma still unsolved
(page 5).
NEAR EAST
6. Talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan continue (page 6).
7. Iraqi Prime Minister interested in solution of Iranian oil problem
(page 7).
8. Israel charges Syrian Army aggression (page 8).
EASTERN EUROPE
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WESTERN EUROPE
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12. French Communists show concern over tactics of deviationists
(page 11).
LATIN AMERICA
13. Bolivian Foreign Minister claims Paz Estenssoro ineligible for
presidency (page 11).
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WF. GENERAL
1. USSR proposes Big
we meeting to prepare Japanese Peace treaty:
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In a 7 May memorandum to the US Ambassa-
dor in Moscow, the USSR proposed a meeting
of the foreign ministers of the USSR, US, 3.3(h)(2)
France, Britain and Communist China in June
or July to begin preparing a Japanese peace treaty. The note sharply
criticized the US draft treaty (which the USSR received on 29 March),
charged that the treaty had been prepared incorrectly because the USSR
had not participated, and outlined Soviet counterproposals.
comment: The Soviet position, allegedly based
on the Potsdam Agreement, has consistently been that a Japanese peace
treaty should be prepared by the Council of Foreign Ministers, including
Communist China and operating under the veto power. At the last Coun-
cil of Foreign Ministers' meeting in May 1949, Far Eastern questions
were not on the agenda, but the USSR proposed that a date be set for a,
Big Five meeting to discuss a Japanese treaty. On 3 March 1951 Soviet
UN delegate Malik refused to continue talks regarding the treaty with
Ambassador Dulles (which had taken place on 16 October, 20 November
and 13 January) and publicly denied having entered them, thus indicating
no substantiVe interest in the US-sponsored draft treaty. Since the USSR
is aware that the proposal contained in its 7 May memorandum is unac-
ceptable to the Western Powers, the Soviet note must have been intended
to divide Japanese public opinion and to reaffirm for propaganda purposes
Soviet interest in a speedy conclusion of a treaty. The Soviet note also
serves to document a case for the future denunciation of the Western
treaty and the maintenance of US forces in Japan. The charges that the
US has violated*stwaf' agreements concerning Japan, such as Cairo,
Yalta and Potsdam,i are similar to Soviet denunciations of US policy
toward Germany.
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2. Attitude of UK delegate continues to delay Yugoslav aid talks:
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3.
Progress in the US-UK-France talks in London 3(h)(2)riv�
on economic aid to Yugoslavtcontinues to be
impeded by the "stalling" of chief UK delegate
Mudie (the Treasury representative), in the
opinion of the French and US delegations. The UK Foreign Office repre-
sentative, on the other hand, has played a very passive role in the nego-
tiations and the US yepresentaitives therefore question whether Mudie's
tactics are deliberate UK governmental policy. The US delegation be-
lieves that only a UK Cabinet decision announcing approval of the UK's
taking a significant part of a grant aid program for Yugoslavia will pre-
vent "further interminable jockeying for position" on relatively unim-
portant economic issues.
Comment: Having previously given tangible
evidence of its concern for the strengthening of the Yugoslav position,
the UK is balking at present mainly on the principle of grant aid (which
� the UK� alleges would establish precedents likely to be exploited by cer-
tain British dependents and allies) and on the actual apportionment of
the economic burden. The US delegation reported on 4 May that the
delay might have a bad effect on the attitude of the Yugoslays.
FAR EAST
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4. UK High Commissioner's views on the situation in Vietnam:
In an interview with US Minister Heath at 3.3(h)(2)
Saigon, the UK High Commissioner for South-
east Asia, Malcolm MacDonald, claimed that
the French were not deliberately delaying the
creation of a Vietnamese Army and that De Lattre was becoming in-
creasingly aware of the subtleties of the political situation. Observing
that Prime Minister Huu was obviously not popular, he thought, how-
ever, that Huu was getting real results and was putting the Vietnamese
Government on a working basis.
With regard to Chinese Communist in-
tentions in Indochina, the UK High Commissioner, stated that Korea
probably was a,restraining influence on the Chinese Communists, but
pointed to the probability that the sort of limited Chinese intervention
which occurred in Tonkin during April would be repeated.
Comment: MacDonald is an experienced ob-
server of Southeast Asian affairs/but tends to be optimistic.
5. Problem of Chinese Nationalist troops in Burma still unsolved:
3.3(h)(2)
Acting on instructions from the US Department
of State, US Ambassador Key in Rangoon has
informed the Burmese Foreign Minister that
the US has directed its Minister in Taipei to
obtain from the Chinese Nationalist Government
an estimated date by which Nationalist troops
will have been withdrawn from Burma. At the
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same time, Ambassador Key pointed out to the Foreign Minister that
a Burmese appeal to the UN for aid in expelling the Nationalists would
be advantageous only to the Chinese Communists. After expressing
his deep appreciation of prompt US action, the Burmese Foreign Minis-
ter said he would advise his government to postpone an appeal to the UN
until the outcome of the US approach to Taipei has been established.
According to US Minister Rankin in Taipei, the
Chinese Nationalist Foreign Minister can see no practical early solu-
tion to the problem and has declared that if the issue were forced he
would have to state publicly that his government cannot control these
troops and that the Burmese Government is free to take "appropriate
action. "
Comment: When it becomes apparent that
the Taipei authorities are incapable of controlling Nationalist forces in
Burma, the Burmese Government may well carry out its threat to appeal
to the UN in order to prove to the Chinese Communists that it is not
voluntarily harboring the Nationalists.
NEAR EAST
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Talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan continue: 3.3(h)(2)
The US Charge in Kabul reports that the infor-
mal talks in Kabul between Colonel Shah of
Pakistan and Faiz Mohammad Khan of Aghanis-
tan are about to be interrupted while Shah re-
turns to Karachi for consultation. While the
basic viewpoints of the twq governments re-
mained unchanged, Colonel Shah intimated to
the US Charge that he feels something has been
accomplished. 3.3(h)(2)
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Comment: The US has been actively promoting
a settlement of the frontier dispute involving Afghanistan and Pakistan.
While the situation has looked nearly hopeless for many months, the
present informal, but government-sponsored, talks are the first glimmer
of hope. Since the basic positions of the two governments are almost
diametrically opposed and since both governments have public opinion
to reckon with, a solution to the dispute is still distant.
Wsigie Minister interested in solution of Iranian oil roblem�
3.3(h)(2)
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Said has suggested
to the UK and US Ambassadors in Baghdad
that Iranian Foreign Minister Kazemi might
be persuaded to exert a modifying influence
on Prime Minister Mossadeq in the oil issue. Nuri suggested that he
might be persuaded to do so through his many friends in Turkey.
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Comment: The Iraqi Prime Minister and Other
Iraqi politicians are greatly interested in the present Iranian oil
nationalization, for they see in it a useful wedge for increasing Iraq's
share in the profits of the Iraq Petroleum Company. With this. in '
view, Prime Minister Nuri requested the Saudi Minister in Baghdad
in early April to secure certain datkon the newly negotiated contract
between Saudi Arabia and Arabian American Oil Company. Nun's sug-
gestion that Kazemi might be useful in the Iranian oil crisis is a some-
what dubious one. Kazemi, who has served as Iranian Ambassador to
Iraq and Turkey, probably made friends in both countries during his
tenure as Ambassador, but has been subsequently reported as persona
non grata in both countries.
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8. Israel charges Syrian Army aggression:
3.3(h)(2)
On 7 May, the Israeli Ambassador in Wash-
ington requested the US Department of State
t o use its good offices in restoring peace in
the present Israeli-Syrian dispute. He insisted
that his government had evidence
which proved that the Syrian Army was actually
involved in the fighting. 3.3(h)(2)
On the same day, Israeli Delegate to the UN
Rafael voiced similiar opinions to the US Delegate. Rafael, in criticiz-
ing the UN organization in the Palestine area, expressed the hope that
Major General Riley, Chief of Staff of the UN Truce Supervision Organi-
zation, . would return to Palestine at once since "he is the only man" who
could restore the prestige of the Truce Supervision Organization. Rafael
concluded by alleging that France was inspiring Syrian aggression against
Israel.
Comment; Syrian spokesmen have been equally
strong in accusing Israel of aggression. Because of heavy gunfire in the
area of the dispute, UN observers have been unable so far to obtain first
hand details concerning the most recent border incidents.
EASTERN EUROPE
. Cominform subversive camps on the Yugoslav periphery;
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Comment This confirmation from communi-
cations intelligence .report of resistance in Kula lends credence to re-
cent Yugoslav allegations of active unrest ancrkformation of resistance
groups elsewhere in the country. Bulgarian efforts to stem the steady
flow of escapees to Yugoslavia, claimed by the -Yugoslays to number
over 300 since January, and the concentration of resistance activities
along the Bulgarian-Yugoslav border may partially account for the re-
cent transfer of Bulgarian army personnel into this area.
WESTERN EUROPE
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12. French Communists show concern over tactics of deviationists:
In the opinion of the US Embassy in Paris, the
continued attention which Humanite is devoting
to the "independent" Communist movement
indicates that the national deviationists are
already proving to be a nuisance. Daniel LeCorre, who has emerged
as a leader of the defectors, has announced that the "independents" will
enter candidates in the forthcoming National Assembly election unless
French Communist Party candidates denounce their subservience to
Stalin. Humanite concedes that this maneuver could interfere with French
Communist Party success at the polls.
Comment: Unless the deviationists can command
a sufficiently widespread following to present candidates in almost every
department, they would not be able to reduce materially French Com-
munist Party representation in the next National Assembly. The large
Communist vote in France underwrites the Communist economic plat-
form rather than the party's ideology, and tends to look upon a strong
Communist Party as the most effective champion of the working class.
The rising cost of living will remain a telling political argument for
the French Communists.
LATIN AMERICA
13. Bolivian Foreign Minister claims Paz EstenSsoro ineligible for presi-
ile4a:
3.3(h)(2)
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The Bolivian Foreign Minister has told the US
Embassy in La Paz that Victor
Paz Estenssoro, the Nationalist Revolutionary
Movement presidential candidate, is not legally
eligible for the presidency because he is (a) out
of the country, (b) not registered as a voter and
(c) subiect to proceedings connected with abuses
when his party was in power. Incomplete returns
from the .6 May presidential election credit Paz with the greatest number
of votes but not the fifty percent plus one required to win; therefore,
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according to the constitution, the matter will go to Congress in August.
If the government maintains this strict constitutional interpretation,
a Nationalist Revolutionary Movement-sponsored revolution seems to
be the logical outcome.
Comment: The Nationalist Revolutionary
Movement is convinced that it is morally entitled to the presidency.
If the government should now attempt to disqualify Paz, his party will
very probably resort to revolutionary activity. It has previously been
reported that a pro-government military junta will assume authority if
the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement tries to overthrow the government.
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Nimosi \KS
Correction to
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
(issue of 9 May 1951)
9 May 1951
Copy No.
The title and first sentence of article 1 page 3, should read:
1. USSR proposes Big Four meeting to prepare Japanese Peace treaty:
In a 7 May memorandum to the US Ambassador in Moscow, the USSR
proposed a meeting of the foreign ministers of the USSR, US, Britain
and Communist China in June or July to begin preparing a Japanese
peace treaty.
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. >e�
11 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S 1400,
NEXT REVIEW DATE- �
AUTH: R 7121 �
DATE. / EVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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