CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/04/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02003050
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: April 18, 1951

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18 April 1951
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Pro-French faction purges opposition nationalists in North Viet-
nam (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Iranian Shah plans strong measures in current crisis (age 3).
3. Comment on report of critical French-Moroccan relations (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Comment on Yugoslav preparations for a break in relations with
Hungary (page 5).
5. Soviet controls tightened in Albania (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
6. Comment on political tension in Bolivia (page 6).
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FAR EAST
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1. Pro-French faction purges opposition nationalists in North Vietnam:
3.3(h)(2)
Under the vigorous direction of Nguyen Van
Tam, Police Chief and close associate of
Premier Tran Van Huu, drastic personnel
changes have been made in the regional ad-
ministration of North Vietnam. The list of expelled office-holders in-
cludes both members of the nationalist Dai Viet party and independent
nationalists who have opposed, or been suspected of opposing, the
policies of Premier Huu.
Comment: The reorganization of the North
Vietnam administration began with Premier Hull's successful campaign
to remove the able and intensely nationalistic Governor of North Viet-
nam, Nguyen Huu Tri. In late March, Tri was replaced by an official
of meager ability whose amenability to the policies of the Huu cabinet
has been demonstrated by his submissiveness to the purge tactics of
Police Chief Tam. The current ascendancy of Huu and Tam, both of
whom are naturalized French citizens and pro French in sentiment,
has undermined the effective North Vietnam administration that had
been built up under the leadership of ex-governor Tri and has dis-
couraged Vietnamese nationalists who oppose both Communism and
continued French domination of Vietnam.
NEAR EAST� - AFRICA
2. Iranian Shah plans strong measures in current crisis:
3.3(h)(2)
USAmbassador Grady in Tehran reported on
16 April that significant political changes in
Iran are anticipated in the very near future.
According to Grady, the internal situation is
becoming increasingly ominous -- with con-
tinued difficulties in the Isfahan textile indus-
try and the general strike in Abadan -- and the
Shah, almost in desperation, may look to Seyyid
Zia Ed-Din Tabatabai as a successor to Prime Minister Ala. Grady
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suggests that the US shoulcl consider its position in this eventuality, for
if the US supports Seyyid Zia, it will be stigmatized as identified with
British interests in Iran. On the other hand, if the US fails to support
him, Seyyid Zia .will be deprived of an element of strength that he will
need if he is to bring about stability at this time. The Ambassador con-
cludes that support of Seyyid Zia is to be preferred, despite the atten-
dant risks. 3.3(h)(2)
the Shah
is prepared to install Seyyid Zia as prime minister within the next few
days and to have the Majlis dissolved as soon as it has confirmed this
appointment. This move is to be followed by decree rule ,and widespread
arrests, which should render impotent the National Front and the various
subversive elements in the country. At this time, Iran will abandon its
neutrality policy and come out openly on the side Of the West.
Comment: While Prime Minister Ala has appre-
ciably strengthened his position in the last weeks and while the London
press states that Ala has now received a vote of confidence from both
houses of Parliament, Seyyid Zia and Qavam are continuing to maneuver
politically to succeed Ala. ' The Shah's plan to install Seyyid Zia as a
strong man, a plan consistently backed by the UK as the most feasible
method of reversing Parliament's recent approval of the nationalization
of Iran's oil, presents many difficulties. The oil issue is so contro-
versial that the appointment of Seyyid Zia, with his reported UK con-
nections, and dissolution of the Majlis without a firm commitment to
hold new elections promptly would probably be followed by widespread
popular disapproval and by increased internal disorder.
3. Comment on report of critical French-Moroccan relations;
According to a special dispatch to the New York
Times, Resident General Juin has been engaged in emergency consul-
tations with thei government regarding the deteriorating relations between
France and the Moroccan nationalists, including the Sultan. Juin is re-
ported to have claimed that his presence is required in the Protectorate
until at least 1 December to ensure order,
Juin had been slated to assume the command of
the armed forces in the central sector of the European Army on 1 June.
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The New York Times article may have been "inspired" by the French
because of (a) General Juin' s dissatisfaction with the importance of his
post in SHAPE, (b) his fear that any successor might yield to some of
the Moroccan nationalist demands, (c) his belief that North Africa is
more important to French defense than Europe, and (d) his suspicions
regarding US activities in Morocco.
It is considered unlikely that the Moroccan
situation has deteriorated to the extent implied in the article. Although
the Moroccan nationalist parties have formed an alliance, no effective
campaign in the near future is possible, in view of the restrictions im-
posed on nationalist activity as well as the pressure of a French army
in Morocco large enough to put down native disorders.
EASTERN EUROPE
4. comment on Yugoslav preparations for a break in relations with Hungary:
The Yugoslav Government has announced that
the Swiss Government has been asked and has agreed to protect Yugo-
slav interests in Hungary in the event of a rupture of relations between
Yugoslavia and Hungary. According to a government spokesman, this
action was taken because of the obvious intent of the Hungarian Govern-
ment to worsen relations between the two countries.
In 1949 the Cominform States and Yugoslavia
began to withdraw their chiefs of miss1tnns and gradually reduce their
diplomatic representations to token staffs. In November 1950 Yugoslavia
suspended relations with Albania and closed the Albanian Legation in
Belgrade. With this exception, tile Yugoslav action with respect to Hun-
gary marks the first time that any country on either side of the quarrel
has prepared for a complete severance of relations. The Yugoslav
initiative may be an attempt to strengthen Yugoslavia's propaganda posi-
tion in the West And, at the same time, forestall an actual break in re-
lations by placing Hungary in a disadvantageous propaganda position.
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Soviet controls tightened in. Albania:
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According to the Albanian radio, pro-Soviet 3.3(h)(2)
Minister of Interior Mehmet Shehu has been
appointed interim Minister of State Control
by decree of the Presidium of the Albanian
People's Assembly. Former Minister of State Control Ma.nush Myftiu
has been appointed Vice Premier. 3.3(h)(2)
in addition to harsh control measures previously instituted by the
Stalinist hierarchy under Shehu, all privately owned radio sets have been
seized and persons guilty of violating the current regulations concerning
radios will be severely punished. Since the bomb explosion at the Soviet
Legation on 19 February, all persons are reportedly searched before
being permitted to enter any government office, "Special Police" units
have now returned to their various headquarters and have resumed
"normal activity," an action that may be a forewarning of mass arrests
of nationalist suspects.
Comment: The appointment of Moscow-favored
Shehu as Minister of State Control is a further indication of additional
Soviet controls over Albanian internal affairs. Reports in recent weeks
have revealed intensified Soviet efforts to maintain its domination in
Albania in the face of a marked growth in-resistance activity.
LATIN AMERICA
6. Comment on political tension in Bolivia:
A situation potentially dangerous to the stability
of the government has developed in Bolivia, where the administration
has thus far refused to allow the presidential candidate of the Nationalist
Revolutionary Movement, Paz Estenssoro, to return from eJdle. Politi-
cal tension has been mounting and there have been large-scale demon-
strations by Paz supporters.
The Bolivian Minister of Government has stated
that the administration does not intend to impose a state of seige or
postpone the 6 May presidential elections. However, if it appears that
Paz will be prevented from running in the elections -- either because he
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Is not permitted to return to Bolivia or because his legal status as a
candidate is not clarified -- the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement
may resort to revolutionary activity. The government's ability to
control A revolutionary situation will depend in large part upon the
loyalty of the army.
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