MEMO TO HOWARD OSBORN FROM GEORGE A. CARVER, JR. RE I EXPLAINED IN GENERAL TERMS WHY WE FELT THAT IF MR. SZULC HAD IN FACT SEEN AN AGENCY REPORT, THE LEAK OF THE AGENCY DOCUMENT WOULD HAVE HAD TO COME FROM A VERY HIGH LEVEL

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 01482305
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2017
• Case Number: F-2007-00094
• Publication Date: September 14, 1972

OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Approved for Release: 2017/01/18 C01482305
DATE: 14 Sept
To: Mr. Howard Osborn
Director of Security
SUBJECT:
REMARKS:
1. One of your aAsociates in
the Special Center) .aallecl me this morning
(14 September) with reference to the 13
Septernbe.r New York Times article by Tad
Szulc. I explain.ed in general terms why we
felt that if Mr. Szulc had in fact seen an Agency
report, the leak of the Agency document would -
have had to come from a very high-level, but
that none of the language in Mr. Szulc's article
actually reflected any of the language or precise
� argumentation used in any recent Agency
memoranda.
2. In point of fact, there are three possible
candidates for the alleged "Agency report"
referred to by Mr. Szulc. Ecch of these is
itseli a very sensitive document, knowledge of
� whose existence should not be excessively
bruited about. I am, therefore, sending you
on an eyes only basis the attached copy of my
note to the Director on this matter.
(b)(3)
George A. Carver; Jr.
Special Assistant for Vietnamese Affairs
Attachment
Approved for Release: 2017/01/18 C01482305
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came known only in recent
days. � � � � �
c'The. North Vietnamese have
built additional pipelines south-,
ward from lianoi. to. supply
their forces in South Vietnam.
One of them reaches down to
the Ashau Valley: � es-
Ine.11igence officials, 'discuss-
ing the. reports of the two
arrer.ctes, said that it v, as virtu...-
were prepared for the Natonal 1,7 impossible for air strikes to
� Security Council, that the over- Cut the pipelines, � which are
.all results of the bombing to four �inches in diameter. Two
!officials said that whenever a
oioeline was hit, North Vie.iTeoirie; penn, Carnarecia_
les. ee technicians turned - rt-
:date been disappointing
tbecausa of North Vietnamese
"-nt tactics" in keeping troops
ournoin-r, stations while rapid
lair attacks_ The substance Of
.........._ ..e.,..2...es 7:Gil.", a-S2.1,... ,..:...- I T. ,
iTePalr... were made. .,.. -�� - - -
As for railways from China,
the reports was made available ith.ey said, the-North Viet:am-
t.) The New York Times today lase have to � a large extent
by highly place.d intelligence !meutralized thz... effe.cts of the
officials. � � - boinloing bi,r mars;:talir:g . a!!
. These.' officials. � citine. del,' available rocling stock and man-
e, .12 poveer. - � .
intellie?..enco'estimates as well as The Officials said that. the
tile bombing rt.piorts, said that 1North vietn:_ernese "ant tactics' ,
all the inelication were that the � involved moving supplies by!
were prei,,,,a�:ir,:sz rail up to a bombed-out bridee',
-- - se�eored hi-,'-evey The si,c--1
.1":?'.'," ..I.i-h-r:"*V.". offensives '-'' `�� - "�"'"' - ' �"
plies -,r;a then reportetlly move-.1:
:1;:)'-':.3 Vit:':?"---11 Vii:.1- by tier hares, trecif, bieeiclei
. or back pack to railroad cars!
/ii.eliiii_!,*rits'i iNvai.,:in.e, beyorel a deuna.:eed sec-1,
�cf- t'ee co.irrerit intelliganee es7.i-1, i tioitof the trac:: or a destroyed!
fiediegS :".".:.i:,4,2 � lil-1, br..-� end :-ci.oaded.. At the!
_ . i
tiee 1:1I:C.:1.1.i"4271%.:r.1 'F, 1:7 �.. ti :7:1'1. it v: 1.; neiereed, laoeri
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'flrictaes. i
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By 'FAD SZI.a.0
Sped4 to 'Ser. Y,rex
V; A Si-I-INGTON, Sept. 12� 4.:Some 20,000 fresh. North :
This country's two principal in. Vietnamese troops have laid- �
trated into South Vie.r.narn
ageencies have con-i
the last six weeks, making .en
in
eluded in recent reports sub-'
initteci. to the White House that
. 'Hanoi can sustain the fighting
in South Vietnam "at the pres-
ent rate" for the next two years
despite the heavy
bombing of North Vietnam...
. In. separate but concurring
reports preoar.ecl late _last
. Month, the. Central Ir,teiti-
-gence Agency and the Defense
AgencY, declared
that although the heavy bomb-
ing' in the North since. last April
approximate �total of 100,000
regular soldiers there. Only one
training brig3,de is said to re-
main in North Vietnam..
grne. North Vietnamese now
have- the highest number of
regular troops in the Mekong
River delta, southwest of Sai-
.7,orr, since the � start of the war..
The total was estimated at
20.000 to 30,000 men compared..
:with 3,000 a year ago. Most of
the, qnfiltration has; occurred
since the start of the Commu-
nist offensive March 30�and
intelligence officials said that
had been successful in hitting the de:W. now was our biggest_
designae,:ed targets, it hadefailed problem," as pacification pro-
to -meaningfully slow the grams had become' seriously
threatened. � � i
.�of men and equipment to South'
C.A third. petroleum pipelir,e1
.Vietnarn. � has been completed betweenl
high-rankir.g. intelligence.. the- Chinese frontier- railroad
official, along with others inter-! terminal of Pingsiang ,and'
vieeqed this week, said, how- Har..oi. The work began in May,,
�
ever, that if the North. had not' after the United States mi,:e..aa
been heavily bombed, the North Haiphong harbor, but the corn,
oletion of the third Dioeline be-
'Vietnamese could have dou'o�lcd
their or_eer-ations and would
have been spared heavy losses.
.
"They have not been hit
fatally," he said,.."but they zee
slowly bleeding to death�even
. if it takes two more years."
The two inte.iligence agencies
said Lei their reports, which
�
- - -
'Officials' Conclusions
The conclusion reached by
the intelligence agencies, offi-
cials said, was � that the "ant
tactics" used in the movement
of supplies and the . three un-
derground pipelines had en-
abled the North Vietnamese to
keep their foeces fighting_
- .hey said that frequent pilots'
reports . of "secondary explo-
sions"- along the infiltration
trrlils and. the capture of arms. e
and munitions caches�a 143-
tort cache was. reported found,
by South Vietnamese troops
last week�suggested that ma-
tendl continued, moving south-
ward._ -
- The. "secondary- eeeplosions"
are said, to indicate- that mu- -
nitions depots or loaded trucksi. --
have- been hit while other tar-5
gets have been under attack.
The. officials said the pre.- -
dictior_s of new -enemy offen4 -
sives during September and 07-1
tober ware _based on the de-,
ployment of troops southward,t
Inc "preparation of leattl.-..fieiris"i
by -demolition and other nawi
technical units. captured docu-
ments and-information from de-
fectors and prisoners of. war._
These.. officials emphasized -
iwhat they termed "a major ef-
fort" , by the Crimreatniste
bring, troops and supplies into
-the Mekong Delta through Cam-
bodia's Chun, plantation area,
the- so-called arr.ot's beach '
area of Cambodia, which pets
into South Vietnam west of Sai-
gon, arid -R.oute I, the.
highway fro:F.1 Seize= to Pnom-1-
���� aanes
estimates are thaa stace tire
star,: of the Communist offen-
sive at the end of March in the
northern part of South Viet-
nam, the North Vietnamese
arid the Vietcong, have lost
100,00 dead on the br,ttlefield
and in bombing -attacks. The
South Vietnamese toil is put
at 25,023 to 20,020.
But intellieence oficies em-
phasized that bath sides hadi
suffered equal "coali:intive"
losses in cfri.,7eee-s- and noncern-,
nussioned ofieeers.
Approved for Release: 2017/01/18 C01482305