SECURITY ASSESSMENT FOR THE 15 - 17 AUGUST 2000 VISIT OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE TO BUENOS AIRES

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 01171265
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-01040
• Publication Date: August 14, 2000

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141O5 'Z CIA 119428
TO: PRIORITY SECSTATE WASHDC//INR//, USCINCSO MIAMI FL,
USCINCJFCOM NORFOLK VA, JFIC NORFOLK VA, CINCLANTFLT NORFOLK VA,
COMMARFORLANT
TEXT
SERIAL:
PASS:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WARNING: INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE
REPORT CLASS S E/R E T--NOFORN
DIST: 14 AUGUST 2000
COUNTRY: ARGENTINA
SUBJ: SECURITY ASSESSMENT FOR THE 15 - 17 AUGUST 2000 VISIT OF
THE SECRETARY OF STATE TO BUENOS AIRES
DOI:
SOURCE:
SUMMARY: THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY
GROUP OR INDIVIDUAL IS PLANNING TO CARRY OUT OR PROMOTE DISTURBANCES
OR ACTS OF VIOLENCE AGAINST THE VISIT TO ARGENTINA BY THE U.S.
SECRETARY OF STATE. GIVEN THE HISTORY OF UNSOLVED TERRORIST ACTIVITY
IN BUENOS AIRES ASCRIBED TO HIZBALLAH WITH PROBABLE IRANIAN SUPPORT,
ARGENTINA IS ALWAYS ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A THIRD BOMBING IN
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THE CITY, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE A NUMBER OF EXTREMIST ISLAMIC GROUPS ARE
PRESENT IN THE TRIBORDER AREA, AND SOME LATIN AMERICAN TERRORIST
GROUPS HAVE REPRESENTATION IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. ARGENTINE
AUTHORITIES, HOWEVER, ARE CONFIDENT THAT THERE IS NO PLANNED THREAT
AGAINST THE SECRETARY, NOR IS THERE ANY INDICATION OF PLANNED VIOLENT
ACTS THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HER VISIT. ALTHOUGH DEMONSTRATIONS
MAY BE ORGANIZED, THE MOVEMENT OF VISITORS WILL BE PLANNED TO AVOID
UNDESIRABLE CONFRONTATIONS. THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS DIVISION OF THE
ARGENTINE FEDERAL POLICE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OFFICIAL VISITS AND WILL
BEAR PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE SECURITY OF THE VISIT WITH THE
AERONAUTICAL POLICE AT EZEIZA AIRPORT, THE NATIONAL GENDARMERIE, AND
THE PROVINCIAL POLICE POSSIBLY AUGMENTING THEIR EFFORTS. THE
SECRETARIAT FOR STATE INTELLIGENCE, ARGENTINA'S PRIMARY IDITELLIGENCE
ORGANIZATION, WILL PROVIDE INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT.
STREET CRIME AND HOTEL ROBBERIES, AT
TIMES VIOLENT, ARE A GROWING PROBLEM IN BUENOS AIRES BUT ARE MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ADVANCE AND SUPPORT ELEMENTS RATHER THAN THE
SECRETARY'S PARTY.
TEXT: 1. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT
ANY GROUP OR INDIVIDUAL IS PLANNING TO CARRY OUT OR PROMOTE
DISTURBANCES OR ACTS OF VIOLENCE AGAINST THE U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE
DURING HER 15-17 AUGUST 2000 VISIT TO BUENOS AIRES. THE VISIT HAS
BEEN WIDELY DISCUSSED POSITIVELY IN PRINT AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA. THIS
CITY HAS BEEN THE SCENE OF TWO BLOODY TERRORIST ATTACKS, HOWEVER, ONE
ON 18 JULY 1994 AGAINST THE ARGENTINE-ISRAELI MUTUAL ASSOCIATION
(AMIA), IN WHICH 86 PEOPLE WERE KILLED, AND THE OTHER ON 17 MARCH
1992 AGAINST THE ISRAELI EMBASSY IN WHICH 25 PEOPLE WERE KILLED. IN
BOTH INCIDENTS VEHICULAR BOMBS WERE EMPLOYED. OFFICIALS ASSIGNED TO
THE IRANIAN EMBASSY IN BUENOS AIRES PROVIDED AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT
FOR THE AMIA ATTACK.
ALTHOUGH HIZBALLAH CLAIMED CREDIT FOR THE ISRAELI
EMBASSY BOMBING, THERE IS INFORMATION BUT NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO
BACK UP HIZBALLAH'S LINK TO THE AMIA BOMBING. BOTH CASES REMAIN
UNRESOLVED, A POLITICALLY EMBARRASSING ISSUE WHICH BESIEGED THE
FORMER GOVERNMENT OF CARLOS ((MENEM)) AND WHICH CONTINUES TO BURDEN
THE NEW GOVERNMENT OF FERNANDO ((DE LA RUA)). GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
TERRORIST ACTIVITY IN ARGENTINA, THERE IS ALWAYS CONCERN THAT BUENOS
AIRES COULD BE THE SITE OF A THIRD ATTEMPT, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO
SPECIFIC REPORTING OF SUCH PLANNING. THIS CONCERN USUALLY IS
HEIGHTENED FOLLOWING VIOLENCE AGAINST HIZBALLAH OR PALESTINIANS IN
THE MIDDLE EAST, SINCE THE 1992 BOMBING WAS A REPRISAL FOR AN ISRAELI
ATTACK IN LEBANON.
IN LATE JULY 2000, THE JUSTICE MINISTER PUBLICLY SAID
THERE WAS NO REASON TO FEAR ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACK AGAINST A JEWISH
TARGET IN ARGENTINA, ADDING THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS ALERT TO ALL
POSSIBLE TERRORIST ACTIVITY.
2. IN THE TRIBORDER AREA OF BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, AND PARAGUAY
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THERE TS A LARnE MUSLTM C'CIMMUNTTY
LOOSELY ORGANIZED GROUPINGS OF
SUNNI ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS, PRINCIPALLY THE GAMA'AT AL-ISLAMIYAH (IG),
AND THE PALESTINIAN RESISTANCE MOVEMENT (HAMAS). ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
TWO HAVE YET TO CONDUCT ANY ACT OF VIOLENCE IN THE REGION,
THE DISRUPTION OF HIZBALLAH
GROUPS IN CIUDAD DEL ESTE, PARAGUAY, AND THE ARREST IN JANUARY 1999
OF AL-SAID HASAN MUHAMMAD AL-((MUKHLIS)), AN IG MEMBER IMPRISONED IN
URUGUAY SINCE THEN AND AWAITING EXTRADITION TO EGYPT ALLEGEDLY IN
CONNECTION WITH THE 1997 MASSACRE IN LUXOR IN WHICH 58 TOURISTS WERE
KILLED. THESE GROUPS POTENTIALLY COULD SEEK TO REDRESS HIS
IMPRISONMENT
OVERALL, THE U.S. ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS HAS ALWAYS
MADE U.S. OFFICIALS ATTRACTIVE TARGETS, AND THE WELL-PUBLICIZED
RECENT U.S. PEACE EFFORTS IN CAMP DAVID MAY HEIGHTEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF ATTENTION FROM THESE GROUPS. U.S. OFFICIALS HAVE NOT BEEN THE
TARGET OF ANY TRIBORDER EXTREMISTS, HOWEVER, SINCE THE 1997 REPORT OF
A THREAT TO THE U.S. EMBASSY IN ASUNCION, PARAGUAY.
3. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE DOMESTIC POLITICAL TERRORIST GROUPS IN
ARGENTINA WHICH WOULD POSE A THREAT TO THE SECRETARY. HISTORICALLY,
BETWEEN 1992-1996 THE REVOLUTIONARY ORGANIZATION OF THE PEOPLE
(ORGANIZACION REVOLUCIONARIA DEL PUEBLO--ORP), A CRIMINAL BAND,
CONDUCTED LOW-LEVEL TERRORIST ACTS IN ARGENTINA, ALTHOUGH NONE
AGAINST FOREIGN TARGETS. IN EARLY JULY 2000, A SANDINISTA NATIONAL
LIBERATION FRONT (FSLN) SPONSORED 'MILITARY BRIGADE' REPORTEDLY
FINISHED TRAINING IN NICARAGUA AND MEMBERS WERE EXPECTED TO TRAVEL TO
SOUTH AMERICA. THE BRIGADE WAS TRAINED WITH FINANCING FROM THE
REVOLUTIONARY ARMED FORCES OF COLOMBIA (FARC) WHICH BEGAN THIS
ONGOING EFFORT AS AN INVESTMENT TO BUILD INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL
PRESENCE. HOWEVER, THE EFFORT EVOLVED TO BECOME PART OF A NEW FARC
STRATEGY TO "VIETNAMIZE" ITS ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO NEW U.S.
ECONOMIC AND MILITARY SUPPORT TO COLOMBIA. MEMBERS OF THE BRIGADE
AND INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED IN THIS ALLEGED EFFORT INCLUDE CUBANS,
PERUVIAN TUPAC AMARU REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT (MRTA) MEMBERS, AND
4.
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5. ARGENTINES FREELY AND OPENLY EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS, WHICH
OFTEN MEANS DEMONSTRATIONS. THUS FAR IN THE YEAR 2000 THE U.S.
EMBASSY HAS BEEN THE FOCAL POINT FOR A NUMBER OF DEMONSTRATIONS
REGARDING U.S./NATO ACTION IN KOSOVO AND ANTI-IMF DEMONSTRATIONS.
THESE DEMONSTRATIONS USUALLY ARE LED BY ONE OR ANOTHER OF A LOOSE
COALITION OF EXTREME LEFTIST PARTIES IN ARGENTINA, SUCH AS THE
REVOLUTIONARY SOCIALIST LEAGUE (LA LIGA SOCIALISTA REVOLUCIONARIA
(LSR) AND THE WORKERS PARTY (PARTIDO OBRER0--P0). THESE GROUPS ARE
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT POLITICAL PLAYERS BUT CAN USUALLY COUNT ON
FAVORABLE COVERAGE FROM LEFTIST ELEMENTS IN THE MEDIA. SOME OF THE
LEFTIST GROUPS ARE ALSO JOINED BY MEMBERS OF THE "FRONT FOR A COUNTRY
IN SOLIDARITY" (FREPASO), WHICH FORMS PART OF THE RULING ALLIANCE
COALITION. THE DEMONSTRATIONS HAVE ALL BEEN PEACEFUL, LIMITED TO
SHOUTING, BANGING DRUMS, PASSING OUT FLYERS, AND WRITING ANTI-U.S.
SLOGANS ON THE SIDEWALK ACROSS THE STREET FROM THE EMBASSY. THAT
SAID, THE VISIT OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE, WHOSE PROMINENT ROLE IN
THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS AND IN INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT MEDIATION
IS WELL KNOWN HERE, MAY PROVIDE A LOGICAL TARGET FOR DEMONSTRATIONS.
WITH THE ABOVE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS, THERE ARE NO OTHER INDICATIONS AT
THIS TIME THAT ANY GROUP PLANS TO HOLD DEMONSTRATIONS THAT MIGHT
PURPOSELY THREATEN, EMBARRASS, OR IMPEDE THE SECRETARY OF STATE
DURING HER VISIT. WHEREAS MOST DEMONSTRATIONS ARE USUALLY PEACEFUL,
AT TIMES AGITATORS, INFILTRATE
THE CROWDS AND TRY TO STIR UP TROUBLE. THESE, HOWEVER, RARELY
ESCALATE BEYOND FISTICUFFS. WHILE MOST PROTESTS ARE PLANNED TO BE
NONVIOLENT, SOME HAVE BEEN MARRED BY VIOLENCE DUE TO OVERZEALOUSNESS
BY THE POLICE. THE SECURITY FORCES CLOSELY MONITOR PROTESTS AND
STRIKES, PARTICULARLY THOSE INVOLVING THE U.S. EMBASSY OR VISITORS,
AND WILL REROUTE MOTORCADES OF VISITING OFFICIALS WHEN NECESSARY TO
AVOID CONTACT WITH ONGOING DEMONSTRATIONS
6. THE INAUGURATION OF PRESIDENT DE LA RUA AND HIS NEW
GOVERNMENT IN DECEMBER 1999 HAS NOT RESULTED IN ANY DISCERNIBLE
DISTANCING OF THE ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT FROM THE UNITED STATES ON
POLICY ISSUES. WHILE THE DE LA RUA GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING MOVES
SUCH AS A MODERATE INCREASE OF ITS DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN IRAN UNDER
PRESSURE FROM COMMERCIAL AND BUSINESS INTERESTS, PRESIDENT DE LA
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RUA'S MID-JUNE 2000 VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES WAS PERCEIVED LOCALLY
AS GENERALLY SUCCESSFUL AND LENDING PRESTIGE TO ARGENTINA'S
INTERNATIONAL IMAGE. THE VISIT ALSO HELPED PROTECT AND ENHANCE THE
EXCELLENT COOPERATION THE MISSION RECEIVES FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF
ARGENTINA ON KEY ISSUES OF INTEREST TO THE UNITED STATES. FORMER
PRESIDENT MENEM'S JUSTICIALIST PARTY (PERONISTS--PJ) IS NOW AN
OPPOSITION PARTY TO DE LA RUA, WHO WAS ELECTED BY THE ALLIANCE OF THE
RADICAL CIVIC UNION (UCR) AND THE FRONT FOR A COUNTRY IN SOLIDARITY
(FREPASO). ALTHOUGH THE MINORITY FREPASO ELEMENT OF THE ALLIANCE CAN
BE VOCAL IN ITS CRITICISM OF U.S. POLICIES, THE MAJORITY UCR ELEMENT
WOULD PROBABLY NOT ALLOW IT TO TAKE ANY PUBLIC ACTION WHICH MIGHT
EMBARRASS THE ADMINISTRATION DURING THE SECRETARY'S VISIT. IN ANY
CASE, IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY FOR ANY VIOLENT ACT TO EMANATE FROM THE
FORMAL POLITICAL PARTIES IN ARGENTINA.
7. ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO FACE THE DEEPEST, LONGEST RECESSION
OF THE PAST DECADE. ONE OF THE CHIEF PROMISES OF THE DE LA RUA
ADMINISTRATION WAS TO ADDRESS INEQUITIES CREATED BY THE HUGE ECONOMIC
CHANGES, PRIMARILY PEGGING THE PESO TO THE U.S. DOLLAR AND
PRIVATIZING MOST STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, MEASURES WHICH WERE ENACTED
DURING THE FIRST MENEM ADMINISTRATION FROM 1989-1995. HOWEVER, DE LA
RUA'S GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO DELIVER ON THIS PROMISE DUE TO
ITS RESTRICTIVE IMF COMMITMENTS. MOREOVER, THE UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL
HAS INCREASED UNDER THE NEW GOVERNMENT FROM 14.5 TO 15.4 PERCENT
(THROUGH JULY). ANOTHER MEASURE WHICH HAS CAUSED MAJOR DISCONTENT
WAS THE MAY 2000 DECISION TO REDUCE SALARIES GOVERNMENT-WIDE BY 12-15
PERCENT IN ORDER TO COMPLY WITH IMF REQUIREMENTS. SOME CRITICS SEE
PRESIDENT DE LA RUA OPERATING LARGELY IN REACTION TO THE IMF'S
STRICTURES ON FISCAL POLICY AND NOT TO A CENTRAL THEME OR COHERENT
POLICY. INTERNECINE WARFARE WITHIN HIS ALLIANCE COALITION, INCREASED
UNEMPLOYMENT, PROLONGED RECESSION, AND THE PERCEPTION OF INDECISION
AND INCOMPETENCE HAS LED TO A FLUCTUATING APPROVAL RATE FOR THE
PRESIDENT AND THE GOVERNMENT. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF IN CONTINUOUS
STRIKES, WORK STOPPAGES, AND PROTESTS FROM PREVIOUSLY PROTECTED
SECTORS, INCLUDING ORGANIZED LABOR, TRUCKERS, TEACHERS, AND PUBLIC
EMPLOYEES, WHO FEEL THEY HAVE LOST OUT WITH THE CHANGES. IT IS
POSSIBLE ANY/ALL OF THESE GROUPS MAY ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE
DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE VISIT OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE USING
ANTI-IMF THEMES, ALTHOUGH TO DATE WE HAVE NO INDICATIONS ANY SUCH
PROTESTS ARE PLANNED OR THAT VIOLENCE WOULD BE PLANNED AS PART OF
SUCH PROTESTS.
8. BILATERAL RELATIONS ARE EXCELLENT, BUT A NUMBER OF
NETTLESOME BILATERAL TRADE ISSUES, SUCH AS PHARMACEUTICAL PATENTS,
ATTEMPTS BY SOME U.S. STATES TO CONTINUE RESTRICTIONS ON CERTAIN
ARGENTINE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND, MOST RECENTLY, THE TEMPORARY
SUSPENSION BY THE US OF ARGENTINE BEEF IMPORTS DUE TO A FOCUS OF
FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE IN ANIMALS WANDERING INTO ARGENTINA FROM
PARAGUAY) COULD SURFACE DURING THE VISIT OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE.
NOTWITHSTANDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DETRACTORS USING THE VIP VISIT TO
SERVE THEIR OWN POLITICAL AGENDA, WE EXPECT PRESS COVERAGE TO BE
MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE VISIT OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE. THE VISIT
MAY, HOWEVER, PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR DISSATISFIED GROUPS TO PROTEST
BILATERAL TRADE ISSUES, THE IMF, EXTERNAL DEBT ISSUES, AND, POSSIBLY,
THE U.S. ECONOMIC BLOCKADE OF CUBA. IN ADDITION, LEFTIST CRITICS MAY
CHARGE THAT THE DE LA RUA GOVERNMENT IS KOW-TOWING TO ITS "CARNAL"
AMERICAN ALLY IN IMPLEMENTING DEREGULATION OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND
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AIRLINES.
9. THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS DIVISION OF THE ARGENTINE FEDERAL
POLICE (AFP) IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OFFICIAL VISITS AND WILL BEAR PRIMARY
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE SECURITY OF THE VISITS. THE AFP WILL BE IN
CHARGE OF THE PERSONAL SECURITY OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE WITHIN THE
FEDERAL CAPITAL OF BUENOS AIRES.
A. IN BUENOS AIRES, THE AFP WILL BE IN CHARGE OF SECURITY FOR
VIP MOVEMENTS, LODGINGS, AND ALL SITES WHERE ACTIVITIES WILL TAKE
PLACE FOR THE SECRETARY'S VISIT. THE AFP WILL HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL
ALL ITS RESOURCES, TO INCLUDE AN EXPLOSIVES BRIGADE, U.S.-TRAINED
CANINE TEAMS, A SPECIAL SUPPORT SWAT GROUP (THE GEOF UNIT -- GRUPOS
ESPECIALES OPERACIONES FEDERALES), AND AN AIR SQUADRON. THE
AERONAUTICAL POLICE WILL BE IN CHARGE OF AIRPLANE SECURITY AT EZEIZA
AIRPORT AND ALL OTHER AIRPORT FACILITIES, SECURITY OF THE LUGGAGE,
AND ANTI-EXPLOSIVE CONTROLS. THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCIAL POLICE WILL
AUGMENT MOTORCADE MOVEMENTS FROM EZEIZA INTO THE CAPITAL.
10.
11. LIKE ANY LARGE, COSMOPOLITAN CITY, BUENOS AIRES ENDURES ITS
SHARE OF CRIME, AND THIS IS A GROWING PROBLEM. MOST CRIME AFFECTING
VISITORS HAS BEEN NONVIOLENT. AGGRAVATED ROBBERIES, SHOOTINGS, WHILE
NOT COMPLETELY UNHEARD OF WERE UNTIL RECENTLY UNCOMMON. NOW,
INCIDENTS OF ARMED INVASIONS OF BANKS, RESTAURANTS, SHOPS, AND
RESIDENCES BY CRIMINAL GROUPS OCCUR WITH GREATER FREQUENCY. GIVEN
THE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE VISITS, THE OFFICIAL PARTY ITSELF
SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY CRIMINAL ELEMENTS. AT TIMES, HOWEVER, SOME
ADVANCE AND SUPPORT ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN SUBJECTED TO VARIOUS CRIMINAL,
BUT TO DATE NONVIOLENT, ACTIONS. IN SEPTEMBER 1998, FOR EXAMPLE, A
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VISITING U.S. SECURITY ASSESSMENT TEAM WAS MUGGED BY A GROUP OF
ROBBERS ON THE "FLORIDA" PEDESTRIAN SHOPPING STREET. IN NOVEMBER
1998, THE ROOMS OF A U.S. DELEGATION IN BUENOS AIRES FOR A UNITED
NATIONS CONFERENCE WERE ROBBED OF CASH, JEWELRY, AND LAPTOP
COMPUTERS. WHILE IN BUENOS AIRES, THE EMBASSY RECOMMENDS NORMAL
VIGILANCE AND THE COMMON SENSE REQUIRED WHEN TRAVELING TO ANY LARGE
CITY.
POC: COMMENTS, EVALUATIONS, AND REQUIREMENTS WELCOME.
ACQ:
DISSEM: LT- 70-0] SENT TO
CINCLANTF , MMARFORLANT
USCINCSO, USCINCJFCOM, JFIC,
WARNING: REPORT CLASSSECRET--NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN
NATIONALS.
ALL PORTIONS CARRY CLASSIFICATION AND CONTROLS OF OVERALL
DOCUMENT.
END OF MESSAGE SECRET.
CABLETYPE: IRIS MILITARY 5.0.4.
RELNO:
ORIG: IIDIRPS
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