COLOMBIA: EMIGRATION ON THE RISE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00809076
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2017
• Case Number: F-2012-01333
• Publication Date: November 23, 1999

Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
�Cfrdent,iaL_
Intelligence Report
Office of Asian Pacific and Latin American Analysis
Colombia: Emigration on the Rise (U)
Summary
23 November 1999
Colombia is experiencing a rise in emigration, especially among the urban upper and
middle classes, according to press reports.
� Recent trends suggest that the weak economy is a key factor driving
the departures, although concern about growing violence is also a
consideration.
� Perceptions by Colombia's urban upper and middle classes of
increased insecurity could become a more important factor
encouraging emigration if the insurgents remain intransigent in
peace talks with the government or if they escalate the level of
violence.
Colombian emigration will probably continue unabated for the foreseeable future,
given that the economic recession may only now be bottoming out.
� Since a sizable number of Colombians who emigrate head for the
United States, Colombian visa overstays and illegal migration ma
grow in importance as issues for US Government agencies.
_mg/4v, dddd cttl
�Confidential�
�
.Its'e$L_M,i;,..- �
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Information from a variety of sources indicates Colombia is experiencing a rise in
emigration, especially among the upper and middle classes!
� Colombian authorities report a 20-percent increase in the number of
passport applications this year
�
other foreign
embassies�most notably Canada's�are also experiencing a dramatic
increase in the number of visa applications.
Colombians emigrating to the United States tend to be urban middle- or upper-class
professionals arriving by air and overstaying their visas. The Immigration and
Naturalization Service (INS) and the US Border Patrol have not seen any increase in
the number of Colombians caught trying to cross into the United States over land, a
method that is often the recourse of the poor and desperate.
The Economy: A Key Driver (U)
The poor state of Colombia's economy appears to be the primary "push" factor for
emigrants:
� According to a recent Gallup poll, 37 percent of urban Colombians cite
the lack of economic opportunities as the primary motivation for
leaving the country, with insecurity and violence�which includes
crime as well as the insurgent war�coming in second.
� Urban Colombians managed to cope with high levels of violence�
mostly resulting from criminal activity�during several decades of
good economic performance and prospects. The recent economic
downturn has chipped away at the financial security of city dwellers,
however, and has probably led them to change their expectations for
the future.
At the same time that Colombia is experiencing increased emigration, it must also deal with
an increase in internally displaced persons. Internal refugees are typically peasants who are
forced by paramilitary and insurgent violence to flee to the cities and join the ranks of the
urban poor.
This report was prepared by the Office of Asian Pacific and Latin American Analysis. Comments
and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Latin American Regional Issues Manager,
APLA,
2
�"CtinfitlentiaL
4
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
�Ciratttential�
Anecdotal reporting indicates Colombian emigrants are gravitating to countries with
robust economies:
� In a recent poll carried out in major urban areas, 30 percent of
respondents expressed a desire to emigrate to the United States, 12
percent to Canada, and 7 percent to England.
� Only 3 percent expressed any interest in emigrating to neighboring
Venezuela, and none expressed an interest in going to Ecuador, both of
which are in poor economic health.
Colombia's Economy Stumbles (U)
Colombia is suffering its worst economic performance since the 1930s. Domestic
and international pressures, such as high interest rates and low export prices, last
year ignited a recession that may only now be bottoming out:
� GDP dropped by about 7 percent in the first half of 1999 as compared with
the same period in 1998, and the government estimates that the economy may
contract by as much as 4 percent for the year as a whole.
� The deteriorating economy has wreaked havoc in the financial system�
restructuring could cost 6 percent of GDP, according to private estimates�
and fueled an increase in the unemployment rate to a record 19.8 percent.
Violence: A Contributing Factor (U)
Perceptions of rising crime and political violence have also contributed to the surge in
emigration. The overall level of violence has gone up somewhat this year as compared
with 1998 but most of the fighting occurs in the
countryside far removed from the major urban centers where about 80 percent of the
population lives�including most Colombians who emigrate. Recent high-profile
kidnappings of 43 wealthy urbanites on a commercial flight and the abduction of 150
affluent citizens from a Cali church have heiditened urban residents' perceptions of
the security threat, and underscore the vulnerability of
Colombians, even city dwellers far removed from the actual fighting!
2 Lack of progress in peace negotiations with the insurgents probably has also contributed to
public perceptions of a worsening security situation.
3
�CurrfidentiaL_
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
�Confrdentiitl-
Outlook (U)
Prospects for the economy and the security situation suggest that the conditions that
encourage emigration will persist�or even worsen�in the near term:
� Because employment tends to lag behind growth, the economy will
remain a key driver in emigration even after a recovery begins later
this year, at the earliest.
� Perceptions of urban middle- and upper-class Colombians that security
has eroded may become a significant factor in emigration if insurgent
violence escalates or the insurgents remain intransigent in peace talks.
A breakdown of the already fragile peace process would signal to
would-be emigrants the potential for increased violence.
� Since a sizable number of Colombians who emigrate head for the
United States, Colombian visa overstays and illegal migration may
grow in importance as an issue for US government agencies.
�
4
�Confidential-
�
�-� � � rtf. � , '
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
/24 Nov 99
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
�-s3
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
� Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
�CONPFBENzRAL�
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
/24 Nov 99 I
--CDNITHEN=Fi�AL�
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
������ '
���������:::-
�
, � ���%:--.7%-
:
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
/24 Nov 99
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
3
�C-ei4RDENzIAL-
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
CON
/24 Nov 99
4
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
.� �
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
�refifFil3EN:14
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
�-
.� ,���:?;--3...2q-k:
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076
�COrgrmemg:Lar....._
/24 Nov 99
--ZZINFIDENTbirb�
Approved for Release: 2017/09/11 C00809076