APPRAISAL OF THE SITUATION: CHINESE LEADERSHIP PERSPECTIVES ON THE EFFECTS OF THE 1 APRIL COLLISION OF A U.S. EP-3 AIRCRAFT AND A CHINESE F-8-II FIGHTER

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00785245
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: February 24, 2020
• Case Number: F-2018-01240
• Publication Date: April 17, 2001

Approved for Release: 2020/02/03 C00785245
0 171708Z APR 01 PSN 013609E19
FM CIA
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S E E T NOFORN
CITE CIA 490563
SERIAL
PASS:
CENTRALINTELLIGENCE" G NOY
WARNING: INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE
REPORT CLASS S EJ1 E T--NOFORN
DIST: 17 APRIL 201
COUNTRY: CHINA
SUBJ: APPRAISAL OF THE'SITUATION*4CHINESE L
N THE EFFECTS Or THE'l'cAPRIL'4e0L(ISION
ReRAFTeANfl A CHINESE FIGHTER
DC5I:
SOURCE: I
ERSHIP PERSPECTIVES
U.S.
EP-3
SUMMARY: NONE.
TEXT: 1. SINCE THE 12 APRIL 2001 RELEASE OF THE U.S. EP-3 CREW
DETAINED IN CHINA FOLLOWING THE 01 APRIL COLLISION OF THE EP-3 AND A
CHINESE F-8-1I FIGHTER, THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP'S FOCUS IN THE
SHORT-TERM HAS TURNED TO THE PLANNED 18 APRIL 2001 SPECIAL MEETING
WITH THE UNITED STATES TO DISCUSS THE EP-3 INCIDENT. CHINESE
NEGOTIATION TACTICS FOR THE 18 APRIL MEETING WILL PROBABLY RESEMBLE
PAST CHINESE TECHNIQUES, WITH THE CHINESE PUSHING THE LIMITS FOR U.S.
ACCEPTANCE OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE EP-3 INCIDENT, DESPITE LIKELY
INTERNALSENIORCHINESELE#DERSHIRREGQGNITIQN THAT THIS INCIDENT W
CAUSED BY THE CHINESE 'THE NEGOTIATIONS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
WITH STRONG RHETORIC AND A LITANY OF V.S. MISTAKES BEFORE THE CHINESE
SIDE SETTLES INTO MORE SUBSTANTIVE AND REALISTIC EXCHANGE WITH THE
U.S. TEAM. THE ATTENTION OF THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP ALSO IS FOCUSED
ON THE POSSIBLE LONGER-TERM EFFECTS OF THE COLLISION ON SINO-U.S.
RELATIONS. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF A REALIZATION AND
EMERGING CONCERN AMONG CHINESE OFFICIALS THAT THEREFC
r,,ijis.-WETALIAtrON RELATED TO THE COLLISION, OVERALL, THE CHINESEr-
LEA; DERSHIP'CQNTINOES TO BELIEVE M `SIRELATIONS
WILL NOT BE SEVERELY AFFECTED.
2. THE VIEWS OF CHINA'S LEADERS ARE OFTEN REFLECTED IN CHINA'S
STATE-CONTROLLED MEDIA. AS OF 16 APRIL 2001, CHINA'S PRESS HAS BEEN
MODERATE IN THEIR COVERAGE OF THE RELEASE OF THE U.S. AIRCREW. WHILE
THE CHINESE MEDIA CONTINUES TO CITE THE OFFICIAL CHINESE VERSION OF
THE COLLISION INCIDENT, THE CUSTOMARY STRONG RHETORIC AND ATTACKS
AGAINST THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN ABSENT. THE CHINESE PRESS ALSO
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT, DESPITE THE RELEASE OF THE U.S. CREW, THE
CHINESE EXPECT ONGOING DISCUSSIONS AND NEGOTIATIONS TO FOCUS ON
ACCOUNTABILITY AND U.S. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS NEAR CHINA. CHINESE
OFFICIAL AND PRESS STATEMENTS HAVE ALLUDED TO A WISH FOR STABLE,
LONG-TERM BILATERAL RELATIONS AND A DESIR FOR THE UNITED STATES TO
I
pproved for Release: 2020/02/03 C00785245
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(-NOT LINK THIS INCIDENT TO0001ERBILATERAUISSUES SOON AS TRA.DEJAND
THE UPCOMING U.S. DECISION'RtGARDINGAIOTAFkY'8ALEg TO TAIWAN.
3. CHINESE PRESIDENT ((JIANG)) ZEMIN, WHO IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO CHINA FROM HIS LATIN AMERICA TRIP CIRCA 17 APRIL, WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE HIS BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE
COLLISION INCIDENT AND AILVW,TtlEfemNE,qmILIwy CONTINUE TO TAKE
17.171g:pEADA PUSHING FOR THE DISCONTINUATION spf,,,Q�ECP.NISIAP�ANCE
FLIGHTS THE CHINESE RECOGNIZE THE UNITED STATES IS UNLIKELY TO
AGREE TO THIS REQUEST BUT WILL PUSH IN THIS DIRECTION DURING EARLY
NEGOTIATIONS TO ASSESS THE U.S. SIDE'S BOTTOM LINE POSITION WHILE
THEY ADJUST THEIR REQUESTS ALONG THE WAY, LIKELY INCLUDING REQUESTS
FOR FINANCIAL COMPENSATION FOR THE EP-3 AIRCREW'S STAY IN HAIKOU AND
OTHER EXPENSES RELATED TO THE COLLISION. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE 1 APRIL COLLISION, THE MOST EXTREME STATEMENTS ABOUT
THE INCIDENT CAME FROM HARD-LINE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA)
ENTITIES. JIANG USED HIS OVERSEAS TRAVEL TO PROTECT HIS MODERATE
IMAGE WITH PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY REGARDING DIRECT LINKAGE TO THOSE
ADVOCATING A CHINESE HARD-LINE STANCE. AT THE SAME TIME, JIANG'S
PUBLIC STATEMENTS ECHOING BOTH THE PLA'S AND CHINESE MINISTRY OF
FOREIGN AFFAIRS (MFA)'S CALLS FOR AN APOLOGY, SERVED TO INSULATE HIM
FROM INTERNAL CRITICISM IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SITUATION. IN
ADDITION, JIANG'S BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE WOULD ALLOW HIM, SHOULD
THERE BE FUTURE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS FROM THE U.S. GOVERNMENT
REGARDING THIS INCIDENT, TO POINT TO THE PLA HARD-LINE ATTITUDE AS
COUONS.
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