NID: MEXICO: ELECTION TENSION BUILDS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00332189
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2019
• Case Number: F-2018-02576
• Publication Date: June 30, 1988

Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C00332189
Director of
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Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C00332189
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C00332189
Mexico: Election Tension Builds
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30 June 1988
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TCS 2851/88
30 June 1988
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C00332189
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C00332189
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MEXICO: Election Tension Builds
Significant popular backing for opposition presidential
candidates on the left and the right, combined with expectations
that Mexico's ruling party will rig the vote, is increasin the
potential for confrontation after the election on 6 July
Large opposition rallies in Mexico City have underscored increasing
popular dissatisfaction with the ruling party and have significantly
enhanced the opposition's standing. Leftist challenger Cuauhtemoc
Cardenas drew more than 200,000 people in his closing campaign
appearance last week, according to press reports. Earlier this month,
Manuel Clouthier of the conservative National Action Party�running
third in the polls�was able to draw nearly 100,000 followers in the
capital. Both decried expected fraud; Cardenas called on the Army�
a staunch supporter of the ruling party�to guarantee a fair election.
the ruling party is worried about the opposition's popularity
and the imoact of obvious fraud on political stability.
Comment: The ability Cardenas has to assemble huge crowds
presents a dilemma to ruling-party strategists. If the government rigs
the election to allow Clouthier to finish in second place and thereby
undermine the credibility of the Cardenas campaign, it risks large
urban disturbances and increased popular unrest. To allow Cardenas
to legitimately capture second place, however�which he is likely to
do in a fair election�would enhance the left's credibility and
encourage its challenges to ruling-party legitimacy.
The opposition is no doubt buoyed by evidence of increasing popular
support, and Cardenas and Clouthier are likely to protest the election
results vigorously. The right has shown little ability to sustain protest
efforts, but Cardenas's increasing and widespread popularity
suggests the left maypose problems for the government well beyond
the election
The government's ability to stem violence, however, remains strong.
Security forces are likely to react with moderation as they did during
election protests in 1986, but will move quickly.
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Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C00332189