GUYANA: OUTLOOK FOR OPPOSITION TO BURNHAM

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 00123205
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2019
• Case Number: F-2016-02161
• Publication Date: September 19, 1980

Ap roved for Release: 2019/01/25 C00123205
Prime Minister Burnhatn
SE
Guyana: Outlook for
Opposition to Burnham *7
The 15-year-old dictatorship of
Prime Minister Forbes Burnham
has reached a low point in pop-
ular support, but prospects
appear negligible that an ef-
fective opposition movement
will emerge in'the near future.
The violent death on 13 June
of Dr. Walter Rodney, a leader
of the leftist Working People's
Alliance (WPA), has deprived
3 the anti-Burnham forces of
their most capable and charis-
matic figure. The collegial
leadership that inherits the
poorly organized WPA is not likely to make much headway
in mobilizing its potential resources. In fact, the
threat of government repression appears to have paralyzed
many party supporters. �ker.
Guyana's largest opposition
group, the pro-Soviet People's
Progressive Party (PPP) headed
by Cheddi Jagan, has been
equivocal on proposals for a
formal, broadly based alliance
of the left. Jagan has lost
much of his credibility as a
plausible alternative to Burnham
because of his overriding in-
terest in safeguarding his
parliamentary status. This
willingness to play by Burnham's
rules seems to rule him out
as a serious contender.
People's Progressive Party ;soder Jogon
*Source of copyrighted photograph: Cuba Internacional, November 1979.
**Source of copyrighted phntograph: UPI Special. ..ktr)
19 September 1980
3
;FAT
Approved for Release: 2019/01/25 C00123205
Approved for Release: 2019/01/25 C00123205
SE
Burnham's Image at Low Ebb
Even before Rodney's death, Burnham's stock had
slipped in Guyana and in the Caribbean. In the late
1960s and early 1970s, Burnham shared the limelight with
other nonaligned leaders, parading his "cooperative so-
cialism" and Third World credentials. In recent years
though, many among the younger generation of West Indians
have come to see him as an ideological charlatan and petty
tyrant. Burnham's previously amicable relations with left-
ists in the region have soured even more since Rodney's
death. .441-Me-Ner
Both Jamaican Prime Minister Manley and Cuban Presi-
dent Castro have taken steps to distance themselves from
Burnham. In the last year, Cuba's presence in Guyana has
dropped from 100 to less than 50. Havana's misgivings
about Burnham are signaled by the military training re-
portedly given by Cuban advisers to a small number of
anti-Burnham activists in Grenada earlier this year. The
training also reflected the complete failure of Burnham's
considerable efforts to win over the leftist Bishop regime
in Grenada. 4.g.44F-416-1r.-#
In addition to growing political isolation, the coun-
try has been beset by continued economic stagnation.
Unhappy with their declining economic prospects and lack
of political freedoms in recent years, Guyanese have emi-
grated in a steady flow--depriving the country of sorely
needed talent. Corruption has become more visible and
criticism of Burnham's ability to deal with the economic
malaise has grown. As disillusionment with his ruling
People's National Congress spread over the past year,
sympathy for the WPA seemed to be on the upswing. At
the time of Rodney's death, Burnham clearly was appre-
hensive about the movement's potential. /.44.
Since Rodney's death, charges that the government
is implicated have been widely accepted. Responsibility
for the bombing has not been determined, but circumstan-
tial evidence suggests a link between high officials of
Burnham's government and the crime. The alleged killer
is a former member of the defense forces who is reported
to have close ties to the Army chief of staff. In addi-
tion, two WPA members have been killed in the past year,
one of whom was set up by security forces, according to
a reliable source.
19 September 1980
4
S.E9er
Approved for Release: 2019/01/25 C00123205
Approved for Release: 2019/01/25 C00123205
SEX
Those who blame the government for Rodney's death
argue that it is part of a deliberate plan to wipe out
any effective opposition before holding another sham
election. The drafting of a new constitution making
Burnham "executive president" and formalizing his already
sweeping powers is expected to pave the way for new na-
tional elections--possibly before the end of the year.
The government seems certain to rig the vote as it has
done on three previous occasions.
Disarray Within WPA Ranks
The shock of the Rodney killing has badly jolted his
party, and his successors have yet to sort out their
options. In the highly charged atmosphere following alle-
gations that Rodney was murdered, party spokesmen impul-
sively called for Burnham's overthrow. There is little
evidence, however, the party is prepared to match revo-
lutionary rhetoric with revolutionary action. -f-S-N�F
Of those likely to succeed Rodney, none approach him
in ability or charisma. Some intellectuals in the leader-
ship--including Rupert Roopnarine, Eusi Kwayana, and
Walter Omawale--reportedly favor a switch to more radical
tactics; Rodney may have been urging a more aggressive
campaign against the government prior to his death.
(S NF NC)
Even so, most WPA activists are adopting a low pro-
file to avoid government reprisals. The party's pros-
pects for a sustained campaign of violence--as opposed
to sporadic attacks--are further diminished by the extent
to which the WPA is infiltrated by Burnham's agents. Po-
litical and economic conditions would probably have to
deteriorate far beyond present levels before the WPA could
enlist enough popular support for a full-scale antigov-
ernment insurgency. -Hai.-
Jagan and the PPP: Stale Competition
Cheddi Jagan's People's Progressive Party controls
the country's largest labor union, has a significant in-
fluence among sugar workers, and derives support from the
largely rural-dwelling East Indian majority. While Jagan
enjoys the status of elder statesman in the region, the
19 September 1980
5
SEC T
Approved for Release: 2019/01/25 C00123205
62-year-old foimer archrival to Burnham hilF lost grass-
roots appeal among younger Guyanese; some have switched
allegiance to the multiracial WA, which also has its
roots in Marxist concepts.
Reinforcing Jagan's image as a lackluster ideologue
is his vacillation in taking a strong and aggressive
stance against Burnham. Determined to preserve his parlia-
mentary prerogatives, Jagan apparently mistrusts the motives
of radical leftists who advocate violence; In his adver-
sary role, Jagan continues to attack Burnham's record and
to impugn the United States for allegedly supporting the
repression, but he appears content to stay within the
limits of the system imposed by Burnham. This in turn
tends to legitimize Burnham's position. #(.0.r
An Uneasy Calm
Burnham currently retains the loyalty of the security
forces and the predominantly black government bureaucracy
in Georgetown. Although he faces further deterioration
in the political climate and dim economic prospects, his
opponents are ill prepared to wage a serious struggle.
Continued repression and economic hardship, nevertheless,
will provide a breeding ground for wider discontent and
opposition in the years ahead. If an effort develops to
undermine Burnham, chances are it will come Crom within
the' government or the security forces.
19 September 1980
6
errpt