THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 NOVEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466895
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 11, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
November 11, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
November 11, 1976
Table of Contents
China: Peking's more open style in foreign policy was demon-
strated last week when two top officials discussed a broad
range of international issues in unusually candid terms with
visiting French journalists. (Page 1)
Lebanon: The Syrians evidently intend to consolidate their en-
circlement of Beirut and then assume positions along the con-
frontation line in the center of the capital and in Palestin-
ian-held west Beirut. (Page 2)
USSR: Several developments suggest that the Soviets have resumed
an active research, development, and testing program for con-
ventional antiballistic missile systems. (Page 2)
Poland-USSR: Soviet party leader Brezhnev has given his full en-
dorsement to visiting party chief Gierek. (Page 5)
Notes: EC; West Germany; Greece-Turkey; UK (Pages 6 and 7)
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CHINA: Peking's more
open style in foreign
policy was demonstrated
last week when Vice Pre-
mier Li Hsien-nien and
Vice Foreign Minister
Yu Chan separately dis-
cussed a broad range of
international issues in
unusually candid terms
with visiting French
journalists.
In less extensive com-
ments on Sino-US rela-
tions, Yu also used
stiff language.
Li and Yu focused on Sino-Soviet
relations, and both officials
abruptly dismissed suggestions
that Moscow had adopted a "con-
ciliatory" attitude toward China
since Mao Tse-tung's death. Yu
said that the Soviets were not
waving an olive branch, but a
"poison arrow." He added that if
Moscow really wanted to see an end
to the quarreling between the two
countries, it should "admit all
its errors since 1960." Vice Pre-
mier Li, repeating Vu's suggestion,
said the Soviet confession should
be made "before the entire world."
He said Peking "does not expect
anything" from a new US President
"elected by the bourgeoisie." The
vice minister added, however, that
if the US took the initiative to
improve relations with China, Pe-
king would "follow that path." Yu
noted that Peking was willing to
develop relations with any country
on the basis of the five principles
of peaceful coexistence.
Yu rejected all suggestions that
China was interested in foreign
military aid, asserting that such
proposals underestimate China's
own strength--almost certainly a
reference to former defense secre-
tary Schlesinger's recent proposals.
Both officials expressed the usual
Chinese unhappiness with "detente."
Li said it "does not exist," and
Yu charged that "certain people"--
probably a reference to Secretary
Kissinger--have not correctly as-
sessed the Soviet threat, espe-
cially in Europe. Yu applauded
those in Europe who were seeking
to strengthen defenses against
the Soviets.
* * *
--continued
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11,7 E,DITERRANEAN
SZA
DAMASCUS
620645 1176
MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
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LEBANON: The Syrians
evidently intend to con-
solidate their encir-
clement of Beirut, cut
off outside sources of
supply to combatants on
both sides, and then
assume positions along
the confrontation Zine
in the center of the
capital and in Pales-
tinian-held west Beirut.
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The Syrians have told the Pales-
tinians that they aim to divide
Lebanon into north, central, south,
and Bekaa Valley security zones.
They apparently plan to concentrate
first on the central sector, which
includes Beirut, and secure both
the Beirut-Tripoli and Beirut-Sidon
roads.
Christian and Muslim
tinue to order their
oppose the Syrians.
leaders con-
forces not to
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USSR: Several recent
developments strongly
suggest that the So-
viets have resumed an
active research, de-
velopment, and testing
program for conventional
antiballistic missile
systems.
* * *
We do not believe these activities
indicate a Soviet intent to violate
the ABM Treaty. The Treaty allows
the Soviets to replace or augment
the Moscow system, but they have
not yet developed a system signifi-
cantly better than the Galosh that
would be worth adding to the de-
fense of the city.
Since mid-August, the Soviets have
launched nine Galosh ABMs, in con-
trast to the previous 18 months
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when only three were fired. The
Galosh--designed to intercept ICBMs
above the atmosphere--is the inter-
ceptor missile of the USSR's only
operational ABM system. None of
the tests indicates major modifi-
cations or significantly improved
performance.
After a hiatus of almost a year,
the Soviets resumed flight testing
on October 29 of the interceptor
missile of a research and develop-
ment system, designated ABM-X-3,
which could be fielded much more
rapidly than the Galosh system.
The launch was the first time the
system had been tested against a
real target vehicle--in this case,
an SS-4.
With an active test program, the
ABM-X-3 system could be ready to
field in a year or so, if the bat-
tle management radars necessary
to support the system were already
in place. We believe that the new
radars being constructed at Olene-
gorsk and Pechora will provide bal-
listic missile early warning, but
they also have potential for ABM
battle management.
Many such radars would be required
to support a widely emplaced ABM
system. If the Soviets continue
to field such radars, especially
in areas where ballistic missile
early warning coverage already
exists, and at the same time pur-
sue a vigorous ABM research and
development program, it would in-
crease our concern about the possi-
ble use of these radars for ABM
battle management.
In the same area at Sary Shagan
where the ABM-X-3 is being devel-
oped, the Soviets recently began
construction of what appears to
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*
be a new ABM launcher for initial
tests of a high acceleration inter-
ceptor similar in concept to the
US Sprint. At least three years
of flight testing would be required
before the new interceptor missile
could be operational.
Construction of what may be four
ABM silo launchers at Sary Shagan
has recently begun. When these
are completed, the total of oper-
ational test launchers could be 13.
The ABM Treaty allows the Soviets
a total of 15.
The Treaty permits the Soviets an
ABM system with 100 launchers to
protect either Moscow or an ICBM
*
*
--continued
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POLAND-USSR: Soviet
party leader Brezhnev
has given his full per-
sonal endorsement to
visiting Polish party
chief Gierek, who is
seeking a public show
of Moscow's support in
the face of severe do-
mestic problems.
In a Kremlin speech on Tuesday,
Brezhnev referred to Gierek as
the "true son of People's Poland,"
"an eminent statesman" of the inter-
national communist movement, and
the great friend of the Soviet
Union.
Brezhnev endorsed Gierek's policy
of "radical modernization of all
Polish industry" and implied that
the Soviets would give some addi-
tional help, saying that "we help
each other in a brotherly way" to
strengthen our economies. Brezhnev
noted that the Poles face "tricky
problems," but expressed confidence
that Warsaw would successfully
implement its programs.
The official talks between the
high-level Polish party-state dele-
gation and the Soviets concluded
Wednesday morning. No details
have been released on what the So-
viets are prepared to do to ease
Poland's current difficulties. A
Polish diplomat indicated earlier,
however, that "significant" eco-
nomic agreements would be signed,
and a Soviet diplomat in Warsaw
claimed that the Poles would get
90 percent of what they want.
--continued
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The EC finance ministers,
meeting this week in
Brussels, decided to
delay any action on
possible Community as-
sistance to the UK un-
til the results of Bri-
tain's negotiations
for a $3.9-billion IMF
loan are known.
West Germans
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NOTES
The Nine reportedly concur on the
need for both individual and col-
lective efforts to assist the UK.
General agreement was reached on
the method the EC will adopt in
assuming Britain's $486-million
share of the EC credit granted
Italy in 1974--which the UK wants
repaid by December 9.
* * *
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Greece
Turkey
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The UK government of
Prime Minister Callag-
han suffered a signifi-
cant defeat in the
House of Commons early
this morning following
the surprising legisla-
tive defection of right-
wing Labor members of
Parliament.
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We have no information as yet that
Callaghan intends to call for an
immediate vote of confidence to
erase the stain of defeat. Ear-
lier this year then - prime minis-
ter Wilson recovered from an em-
barrassing parliamentary defeat
caused by leftist defections by
calling for and winning a confi-
dence vote.
If Callaghan chooses this same
course, there will be intense
pressure from fellow Labor members
of Parliament as well as from
powerful trade union leaders on
the rebels to return to the fold.
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