THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466871
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 14, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
October 14, 1976
2
Top S cret 25X1
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of E 0 11652
exemption category SKIM 21,(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 14, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: The Syrian offensive continues. Israel probably wel-
comes Syria's move both as a further blow to Palestinian-
leftist prospects and as an aid to Israeli efforts to elimi-
nate Palestinian commando units from southern Lebanon.
(Page 1)
China: Party cadre have been informed of the Politburo's
"unanimous" recommendation that Hua Kuo-feng be promoted to
posts formerly held by Mao Tse-tung, and formal action by
the Central Committee plenum presumably has been taken.
(Page 3)
Thailand: Prime Minister Thanin has ruled out an early return
to Western-style democracy. (Page 6)
Notes: Egypt-Libya; USSR (Page 8)
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(
BEIRUT )-'-
*;--. r?
,
---------
/Sidon
SYR IA('
LE-BANON
Sayiun.
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?Aramta ,' /
/1 f?r
Nabatiyah
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ISRAEL -\----':.-Y I
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*DAMASCUS
S/YRIA
/ MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
6205.1 10-76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON: The Syrian
advance south and west
of Jazzin continued
yesterday, while artil-
lery barrages and ground
movements in the moun-
tains east of Beirut
could indicate the de-
velopment of another
offensive there.
Syria has announced that
it will attend the Arab
summit conference sched-
uled for October 18.
The Israeli government
will monitor Syrian
troop movements closely,
but it probably welcomes
the new offensive as a
further blow to Pales-
tinian-leftist prospects
and as an aid to its own
efforts to eliminate
Palestinian commando
units from southern
Lebanon.
Syrian forces are proceeding
slowly toward Sidon, using tanks
under cover of an artillery bar-
rage. The Syrians probably plan
to cut the city off from its
sources of supply rather than
take it outright, a move that
would prove costly.
The Syrian drive south of Jazzin
toward Nabatiyah has apparently
reached Saydun. Other Syrian
forces have not yet reached
Aramta, which is defended by a
contingent of Iraqi-dominated
fedayeen.
It is not clear how far south the
Syrians are prepared to go. They
are narrowing the gap between
their positions and the Israeli
border, and are presumably wary
of triggering some kind of overt
Israeli reaction.
Its delegation will be headed by
Foreign Minister Khaddam, not
President Asad--a move presumably
designed to undercut the summit's
effectiveness without appearing
obviously obstructive.
Israeli military authorities con-
tinue to provide tactical guidance
and limited military aid to Chris-
tian forces near the Israeli-Leb-
anon border. The Israelis are
likely to increase this assistance
should Palestinian units put up
stiff resistance to the Syrians.
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Israeli troops have for
some time conducted pa-
trols along principal
Palestinian access routes
along both sides of the
border. Unconfirmed
press reports state that
night patrols are now
sent as far north as the
Litani River.
Last weekend, Israeli artillery
units located along the border re-
portedly shelled Palestinian
strongholds around Marj Uyun in
support of Christian attacks
against these positions. Several
weeks ago, the Israelis apparently
provided similar support for Chris-
tian forces fighting Palestinian
units in the southern Lebanese
village of Ayn Ibil.
Israeli troops also continue to
occupy observation posts established
several months ago inside Lebanon
and recently set up a new observa-
tion post just south of Man j Uyun
that reportedly enables them to
monitor Palestinian movements
throughout much of southern Lebanon.
The border patrols and observation
posts permit the Israelis to give
southern Christian villa es warning
of Palestinian attacks
25X1
Israeli naval patrols along the
southern and central coast of Leb-
anon have increased since early Oc-
tober, probably to interdict for-
eign ships suspected of carrying
munitions to Palestinian forces.
Guided missile attack boats now
regularly maintain close surveil-
lance of foreign merchantmen off
the Lebanese coast between the
Israeli border and Beirut.
* * *
--continued
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CHINA: Announcement of
the elevation of Hua
Kuo-feng to posts for-
merly held by Mao Tse-
tung presumably will be
made at the conclusion
of the Central Commit-
tee plenum which now
seems to be in session
in Peking.
So far as can be ascer-
tained, the country is
calm.
Party cadre were informed of the
Politburo's "unanimous" recommen-
dation of the promotions last Fri-
day. Private confirmation of Hua's
change in status, which was made
to Western newsmen Tuesday evening
by Chinese officials, presumably
followed formal action by the ple-
num.
It is possible that no public
statement will be made on the fate
of the four discredited leftist
leaders even after the meeting in
Peking ends. Party leaders may
wish the charges against them to
circulate internally, preferring
that the bill of particulars leak
out only after some time has
passed.
The confidence of the leadership,
from Hua on down, and the undis-
guised glee and relief evidenced
by many officials at lower levels
suggest that the dominant group in
Peking believes it has a convinc-
ing case against the leftist fac-
tion. These officials may also
believe that the leaderless but
still significant minority of left-
ist followers in the capital and
the provinces will not react to
the arrests with uncontrollable
violence. The fate of the leftist
leaders is probably no longer in
doubt. Communist propaganda out-
lets in Hong Kong have removed
from sale photographs in which
these individuals appear.
There is no evidence thus far of
special troop alerts in Peking or
in the provinces--including both
the sensitive Manchurian area
--continued
3
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If Wang has been ar-
rested along with the
four prominent leftists,
there are presently
only ten full members
of the Politburo re-
maining out of 21
elected at the 10th
Party Congress in 1973.
which has been a hotbed of radical
sentiment in the past year and
Shanghai, the home of three of the
four leftist leaders. Regular
troops apparently have been used
to occupy Tsinghua and Peking uni-
versities, centers of agitation
that have been closely associated
with leftist leaders Chiang Ching
and Yao Wen-yuan.
In the absence of any official an-
nouncements, rumors continue to
circulate in Peking regarding the
number of persons arrested last
week. The US Liaison Office re-
ports that the account now re-
ceiving most credence places the
number at over 50. In addition to
high officials in the ministries
of education and culture who were
closely associated with Chiang
Ching, there have been persistent
reports that Politburo member Wang
Tung-hsing has also been arrested.
This story is plausible although
there is no direct confirmation.
Most accounts of the past several
days claim that Hua used his own
personal bodyguard, rather than
the normal Peking security force
which has been under Wang's direc-
tion, to make the arrests. Wang
has long been suspected of leftist
sympathies although he is not as
clearly identified with the left-
ist cause as Chiang Ching, Yao
Wen-yuan, Chang Chun-chiao, and
Wang Hung-wen.
Of these ten, one is bedridden and
wholly inactive, and another, the
left-leaning commander of the
Shenyang Military Region, may also
be in trouble. There is thus am-
ple reason for the Central Commit-
tee plenum to replenish this lead-
ing policy-making organ. With the
--continued
4
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Although the outline of
the dramatic events of
the past week is rela-
tively clear, many de-
tails remain in shadow.
It is clear that when
Hua acted he had strong
military support.
left-right political deadlock now
broken, this should prove less
troublesome than previously.
It seems likely that the decision
to name Hua party chairman could
only have been made after the left-
ists were taken out of the picture.
The leftists were almost certainly
resisting not only Hua's promotion
but also a decision to place in
his hands operative control of the
Maoist legacy--publication of the
Chairman's selected and collected
works.
The record of dissension evident
in the public media during the
month following Mao's death makes
it virtually certain that the lead-
ing leftists were somehow in-
triguing either to retain the
shreds of power they still pos-
sessed or to turn the tables on
their "rightist" enemies with the
help of Wang Tung-hsing's Peking
security unit.
The current Peking rumors suggest
that, in addition to "forging Mao's
will," the leftists attempted to
usurp control, forcing Hua Kuo-
feng's hand. But it is equally
possible that important military
leaders, impatient with continued
leftist intransigence and agita-
tion, urged Hua to make a pre-emp-
tive move.
In particular, he was backed by
Defense Minister Yeh Chien-ying,
Su Yu--a leading member of the im-
portant military affairs commis-
sion--and Chen Hsi-lien, the com-
mander of the Peking Military
--continued
5
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THAILAND: Prime Minis-
ter Thanin has ruled
out an early return to
Western-style democracy.
Region. This military support
strengthens Hua's hand during the
immediate crisis but also makes
him more dependent on the military
over the longer term.
* * *
In a speech to the nation yester-
day, Thanin outlined a prolonged
period of political reform that
would gradually restore democratic
processes in three stages over a
12-year period.
--The first four-year stage
would be a period of "national
reconstruction" in which an ap-
pointed unicameral legislature
would ensure political stability.
--During the second four years,
the legislature would be broad-
ened into two houses with equal
powers--the upper house appointed
and the lower house elected.
--The third stage would see the
"development of the democratic
system."
It seems clear that the appointed
legislature--which the military
leaders hope to have in place by
the end of the month--will be lit-
tle more than a rubber stamp for
the decisions of a strong execu-
tive. But it is not clear how
much latitude the civilian cabinet
will be permitted.
--continued
6
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* * *
--continued
7
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Turkey
Malta
Cyprus Syria
Mediterranean
BEIRUT
Lebano *
L DAM.
c Gulf of SoIlum
Soil
CAIRO
300 Miles
300 Kilometers
820542 10-713
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Egypt is preparing to
conduct a large para-
troop exercise in the
western part of the
country near the Lib-
yan border,
The Soviets are prepar-
ing to send a second
crew to the Salyut 5
space station, prob-
ably today.
NOTES
At least 22 helicopters were to
fly to the Matruh area yesterday,
which would be the largest heli-
copter movement ever noted in the
western border area.
We have no indications of any new
Egyptian troop movements toward
the Libyan border or of any forces
going on alert. The Egyptians do
not appear to have the necessary
ground forces in position to launch
a major military operation into
Libya, but the movement of large
numbers of helicopters to the area
would give Cairo the capability
to launch sizable commando raids
at any time.
Operations staged from Matruh
would probably be limited to the
immediate Libyan border area.
Targets as far west as Tobruk
would be within range of the Egyp-
tian helicopters provided they
could be refueled at a forward
area such as Sollum.
* * *
Launch preparations and the posi-
tioning of space support ships ap-
pear to be complete.
Salyut 5, a military intelligence
collector, has been in orbit since
June 22, but has been manned for
only part of that time. Current
preparations suggest that the So-
viets have devised corrective pro-
cedures for dealing with the at-
mospheric contaminant in the cabin
that required curtailment of the
48-day mission in July and August.
Assuming that the cosmonauts can
correct the contamination problem,
they probably will remain aboard
Salyut 5 from four to eight weeks.
8
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,
Top Secret
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