THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 13 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466870
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 13, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
I
October 13, 1976
2
----dPily-Sezzce..92.,(1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemption category SB(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 13, 1976
Table of Contents
China: The government has made no official announcement about
the elevation of Hua Kuo-feng or the arrest of the four
"leftist" members of the Politburo. (Page 1)
Lebanon: The resumption of the Syrian offensive has thoroughly
discredited the Arab League's mediation effort, damaged the
credibility of Lebanese President Sarkis, and could scuttle
plans for a summit meeting. (Page 3)
Egypt: Egypt is trying to get an additional $1 billion in
balance-of-payments support to prevent a marked cutback in
imports. (Page 4)
Notes: USSR; Cuba; Philippines (Pages 6 and 7)
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sr.
Chiang Ching
Chang Chun-chiao
Wang Hung-wen
Yao Wen-yuan
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CHINA: The government
has made no official
announcement about the
elevation of Hua Kuo-
feng or the arrest of
the four "leftist" mem-
bers of the Politburo.
Announcements on these and other
subjects are likely to be made
only at the conclusion of the Cen-
tral Committee plenum, which is
apparently now in session. A Chi-
nese official, however, has con-
firmed to Western newsmen that
Hua Kuo-feng has been promoted to
the posts of chairman of the party
and of the military affairs com-
mission. Another official's re-
sponse of "no comment" to journal-
ists' questions about the "left-
ists" is tantamount to acknowledg-
ment that the arrests have oc-
curred. The four Politburo members
involved are:
--Chiang Ching, Mao's widow;
--Wang Hung-wen, vice chairman
of the party;
--Chang Chun-chiao, fourth-ranked
member of the leadership;
--Yao Wen-yuan, party propagan-
dist.
One Western news report, citing
"sources close to the Chinese gov-
ernment" claims that over 30 per-
sons have been arrested, including
Mao's nephew, Mao Yuan-hsin, who
probably acted as head of Mao's
personal secretariat in the final
days of the late chairman's life.
This report claims that those ar-
rested have been charged with forg-
ing Mao's will. There is no di-
rect evidence supporting this
claim, but it seems fairly plau-
sible. Several Western embassies
in Peking have heard that one of
the charges against the leftists
is that they "distorted" Mao's
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Li took a comparatively
soft Zine on the sensi-
tive Taiwan issue, em-
phasizing Chinese "pa-
tience."
writings and had concocted a slo-
gan, "act according to the in-
structions laid down," which has
been widely used in Chinese propa-
ganda since Mao's death and which
could be considered a "will."
The Central Committee probably is
now considering and reviewing the
charges against the leftists. The
case of Li Te-sheng, the one re-
gional military commander who has
unequivocally espoused leftist
positions in the months since the
fall of Teng Hsiao-ping, probably
is especially delicate because he
too is a member of the Politburo
and, in addition, has troops at
his disposal.
The plenum is likely also to be
considering the appointment of a
reconstituted Politburo, now fur-
ther depleted by the recent purge,
the earlier purge of Teng Hsiao-
ping, and five deaths.
In a conversation on Saturday with
Senator Mansfield, Li Hsien-nien,
now China's ranking vice premier
and a likely candidate for the
premier's post, emphasized that
Chinese foreign policy would re-
main on its present course. Li
vehemently donounced the USSR, but
his treatment of US relations was
positive and relatively gentle.
The approach contrasts not only
with harsh comments made by Chi-
nese officials--particularly the
now fallen Chang Chun-chiao--last
summer, but also with the tune
adopted by Vice Foreign Minister
Wang Hai-jung, who is Mao's niece,
in conversation with Senator Mans-
field only two days earlier.
--continued
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON: The resump-
tion of the Syrian of-
fensive has thoroughly
discredited the Arab
League's mediation ef-
fort, damaged the cred-
ibility of Lebanese
President Sarkis, and
could scuttle plans
for a summit meeting
now scheduled for Octo-
ber 18.
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Sarkis and Arab League mediator
Hasan Sabri al-Khuli appear to
have been misled--if not inten-
tionally deceived--by Syrian rep-
resentatives to the tripartite
talks over the weekend. The Syr-
ian attacks came only hours after
al-Khuli had announced a new agree-
ment between Palestinian and Syr-
ian representatives to halt the
fighting.
The Palestinian leaders apparently
were expecting the Syrians to re-
sume their offensive and are as-
suming that Damascus is determined
to seek a military solution to its
dispute with PLO leaders. Yasir
Arafat and the moderate Palestin-
ians reportedly feel that they
submitted their "final" position
during the recent negotiations
and that any further compromise
would, in effect, destroy the in-
dependence and the current leader-
ship of the PLO.
Palestinian leaders have little
confidence that they can hold
their positions outside the major
coastal cities, and they believe
--continued
3
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DAMASCUS
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The two-pronged attack
launched by the Syrian
forces in Jazzin early
yesterday appears to
be the first phase of
their strategy to sub-
due Palestinian forces
in southern Lebanon.
EGYPT: Egypt is trying
to get an additional $1
billion in balance-of-
payments support to
prevent a marked cut-
back in imports.
that their positions in Tripoli
will fall if the Syrians and Chris-
tians press their advantage in
that area. The Palestinians con-
cede that they could not hold out
against a prolonged Syrian block-
ade of Beirut and Sidon, but they
are hoping that, should this occur,
they would be rescued by interna-
tional intervention. Yesterday
they requested an emergency meet-
ing of the Arab League foreign
ministers and they probably will
also appeal to the Egyptians and
Soviets for help.
There is no evidence yet that the
Christian forces south of Jazzin
have assumed a major role in the
renewed offensive. The Christian
Phalanges yesterday did instruct
its forces that their major task
would be to protect Syrian troops
from possible Palestinian attacks
in the area north of Jazzin.
* * *
Last year Arab cash aid covered
about two thirds of Egypt's re-
curring $3-billion shortfall in
annual balance-of-payments and
debt repayments. Only about $1
billion in Arab aid has been dis-
bursed so far this year, but Egypt
has maintained last year's levels
of production and consumption. It
cannot continue to do so unless
more cash is forthcoming within
the next 60 days.
Egypt is postponing a number of
debt repayments to free cash for
needed imports. Heretofore,
Egypt's creditors have tolerated
--continued
4
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delays in repayment on the assump-
tion that Cairo would receive Arab
aid. Now, as both Saudi Arabia
and Kuwait are advertising their
dissatisfaction with Egyptian fi-
nancial practices, creditor pa-
tience is waning.
The newly established Gulf Organi-
zation for Development in Egypt
(Arab Fund) may provide half the
sum that is needed this year.
Egypt hopes that Iran will provide
$250 million in loan guarantees
in addition to a $1 billion credit/
investment package to be drawn
down in the next several years.
Should all these funds materialize,
Egypt would be left with a $240-
million shortfall, which could be
financed with a rollover of short-
term debt or continued deferment
of repayments.
--continued
5
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Soviet Colonel General
Anatoly Gribkov has
been appointed First
Deputy Commander in
Chief and Chief of
Staff of the Warsaw
Pact forces.
Cuba will try to
the US with last
crash of a Cuban
liner, according
Guyanese Foreign
ter Wills.
Zink
week's
air-
to
Minis-
NOTES
Gribkov will fill the position
left vacant by the death of Army
General Shtemenko last April.
Gribkov will also
be a First Deputy Chief of the
General Staff of the Soviet Armed
Forces.
The hiatus in naming a replacement
for Shtemenko may indicate diffi-
culty finding someone who had the
proper military qualifications and
was also politically acceptable.
Wills told the US charge on Monday
that the Cubans had seen the diary
of one of the two men arrested in
Trinidad in connection with the
bombing. Havana is almost certain
to insist that mention of the US
Legal Attache in Caracas in the
diary is proof of US complicity.
Cuban Prime Minister Castro report-
edly will speak today at a mass
rally in Havana. His treatment of
the crash should indicate whether
Cuba does plan to mount a major
propaganda attack on the US.
6
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--continued
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Philippine President
Marcos has scheduled
a referendum for Octo-
ber 16 that will allow
him to go through the
motions of re-estab-
lishing a legislative
branch in his govern-
ment without actually
reducing his authori-
tarian powers.
* * *
The public poll, the fourth since
martial law was imposed four years
ago, will ask Philippine voters
whether martial law should be con-
tinued and whether a partially
elected but carefully controlled
legislature should be created.
Marcos expects a strongly favor-
able response to each question.
The new legislature would be firmly
under control of the executive,
who would determine what subjects
it could discuss and how long it
could remain in session.
7
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