THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 SEPTEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466846
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 15, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
September 15, 1976
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declassilicahon scheduk of E 0 11652
exemphon category SKI
OatLiss-died only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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USSR:
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 15, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Arab mediators have proposed a meeting of Yasir Arafat,
Lebanese president-elect Sarkis, and Syrian Prime Minister
Khulayfawi in another attempt to implement the Damascus ac-
cord. (Page 2)
China: From recent satellite photography we have obtained fur-
ther evidence of the damage caused in China by the earth-
quake on July 28. (Page 4)
Notes: USSR ; USSR (agriculture); Panama (Pages 6 and 7)
Soviets
LATE ITEM
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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USSR: The latest sat-
ellite photography shows
that the Soviets have
started dismantling 26
additional older ICBM
launchers--16 SS-7s and
10 SS-8s. They now
have 35 launchers fully
dismantled and are in
the process of disman-
tling 44 others. By
now the Soviets should
have at least 51 launch-
ers fully dismantled
and work on 28 others
in process.
All 53 SS-7 launchers--44 above-
ground and 9 silos--where disman-
tling activity had been previously
noted were photographed between
August 3 and September 6. In ad-
dition, 136 of the remaining 137
SS-7 launchers, all 19 SS-8 launch-
ers, and two of the seven older
H-II class submarines were photo-
graphed.
To be in accord with the disman-
tling procedures of the Standing
Consultative Commission, the So-
viets should have had 51 launchers
fully dismantled by about March 1.
Only eight launchers met all of
the criteria to be considered fully
dismantled by that date, although
43 others were partially dismantled.
In early April the Soviets, after
admitting they had failed to meet
the schedule, stated that they
would have all of the launchers
dismantled by June 1. On that
date they notified the US that all
51 launchers were dismantled or
destroyed in accordance with agreed
procedures.
On the basis of the latest photog-
raphy, only 35 launchers can be
considered fully dismantled. At
launch sites containing 16 other
launchers not all of the required
procedures have been completed, but
dismantling or destruction has prog-
ressed to a point where the sites
are unusable and could not be re-
turned to operational service in
substantially less time than would
be required to construct a new
launch facility.
A total of 28 additional SS-7 and
SS-8 launchers have been identified
in the initial stages of disman-
tling in the past two months.
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON: Arab mediators
have proposed a meeting
of Yasir Arafat, Leba-
nese president-elect
Sarkis, and Syrian
Prime Minister Khulay-
fawi in another attempt
to implement the Damas-
cus accord.
This is the number required to com-
pensate for the SLBM launchers on
the new submarines that entered
sea trials this summer. Sixteen
of these should be fully dismantled
in early October and the other 12
by about December 1.
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The Damascus accord, concluded be-
tween Syria and the Palestine
Liberation Organization in late
July, calls for a cease-fire, Pal-
estinian adherence to the restric-
tive Cairo accords, and the open-
ing of roundtable negotiations un-
der Sarkis.
Christian leaders reportedly would
favor such a gathering only if
President Franjiyah were repre-
sented. Sarkis apparently has in-
dicated that he would not attend
before his inauguration without
Franjiyah's approval.
Syrian President Asad has not yet
commented on the proposal but pre-
sumably he would welcome such a
meeting.
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The pro-leftist radio in Beiru?5X1
announced yesterday that the PLO
and its leftist allies had approved
the meeting. Even if an under-
standing could be reached at the
meeting, Arafat would still have
to face the stiff opposition of
Salah Khalaf and other Fatah ex-
tremists.
The meeting last weekend between
Khalaf and the Syrians,\
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apparently did
end in deadlock, presumably over
Khalaf's insistence that Syria
withdraw its forces from Lebanon.
Arafat has told Damascus that he
is prepared to accept an indefinite
Syrian military presence in Lebanon.
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*
*
--continued
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CHINA: From recent
satellite photography
we have obtained fur-
ther evidence of the
damage caused in China
by the earthquake on
July 28.
As shown in the before-and-after
photos on these pages, housing
areas throughout Tang-shan, a city
of 1 million persons, were vir-
tually destroyed. Heavy destruc-
tion was observed over an area
covering roughly 160 x 65 kilome-
ters (99 x 40 miles).
--continued
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Preliminary analysis reveals that
damage to industrial plants in the
Tang-shan area ranges from light to
extensive: some plants suffered
little exterior damage; others
were totally destroyed.
At the railroad rolling-stock
plant shown in these pictures, all
of the production buildings sus-
tained heavy damage.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Total Soviet agricul-
tural production this
year, including crops
and livestock, will be
about the same as in
the poor year of 1975.
Soviets
NOTES
An increase in crop production of
about 19 percent will be offset by
a drop of an estimated 13 percent
in output of livestock products--
the result of earlier distress
slaughtering.
This year's improved crop prospects
reduce the Soviet need for imports
of agricultural commodities, nota-
bly grain, and will release for
export greater quantities of other
products--cotton, sugar, and vege-
table oil.
Unless there are quality problems
with this year's grain crop--which
we estimate will be 200 million
metric tons--we expect the Soviets
to hold grain purchases to about
14 million tons. At current
prices, purchases of this size
would cost roughly between $2 and
$2.5 billion compared with the al-
most $4.5 billion worth of grain
purchased last year.
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--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Panamanian govern-
ment, after two days of
demonstrations spurred
by economic discontent,
is likely to press
harder for movement in
the canal treaty nego-
tiations to distract
its domestic critics.
* * *
The protests were clearly anti-
government, with almost no anti-US
overtones, and were prompted pri-
marily by recent price rises.
Government Chief Torrijos has sev-
eral options, including lowering
some prices, pressing even harder
for a resumption of treaty talks,
and pushing for action at this
year's UN General Assembly. Torn-
jos, with the National Guard sol-
idly behind him, does not yet face
a serious threat, but domestic
pressures are mounting and the ero-
sion of his popularity could prompt
him to act without fully consider-
ing the possible results.
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