THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 1 SEPTEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466828
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 1, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/05 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200030001-1
The President's Daily Brief
/
September 1, 1976
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/05 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200030001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/05 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200030001-1
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemption category 5B( I ),(2),(0
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/05 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200030001-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 1, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon-Syria: Lebanese president-elect Ilyas Sarkis met with
Syrian President Asad yesterday to discuss current peace ne-
gotiations and Sarkis' assumption of the presidency later
this month. (Page 1)
Egypt-Libya: Egyptian preparations continue for possible mili-
tary action against Libya. (Page 2)
Mozambique-Rhodesia: Mozambican President Machel unexpectedly
has called a meeting of the leaders of the feuding Rhodesian
nationalist factions. (Page 3)
Korea: North Korea continues to warn that the threat of a US-
provoked war on the peninsula is increasing. (Page 4)
USSR: The US embassy in Moscow believes that leadership changes
are in the offing. (Page 5)
Notes: Turkey; Kenya-Uganda; USSR; Portugal; Mexico (Pages 7, 8,
and 9)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON-SYRIA: Leba-
nese president-elect
IZyas Sarkis met with
Syrian President Asad
yesterday to discuss
current peace negotia-
tions and arrangements
for Sarkis' takeover
from President Fran-
jiyah on September 23.
The leftist-controlled
Beirut press charged
yesterday that Syria
moved an additional
20,000 troops into the
Bekaa Valley in eastern
Lebanon over the week-
end, but)
//there
has been no significant
increase in Syrian
troop levels.
Sarkis and Asad have had virtu-
ally no previous direct, personal
contact, and both men probably ap-
proached the meeting with uncer-
tainty. Sarkis is indebted to the
Syrians for his election last May
and must now rely on them to help
engineer his assumption of power.
He also is acutely aware that his
effectiveness as president depends
on his ability to retain the con-
fidence of all parties to the
conflict; his views on steps to
end the war may therefore not be
in complete harmony with Asad's.
A Western diplomat who regularly
travels through Syrian-held ter-
ritory observed no change in Syr-
ian deployments while driving
along the Beirut-Damascus highway
on Monday. Syria has approximately
5,000 troops stationed just beyond
the Lebanese border, and reposi-
tioning of these forces would be
difficult to detect.
The Christians reportedly have re-
inforced their positions in the
southern outskirts of Beirut, pre-
sumably in conjunction with plans
for a new offensive coordinated
with the Syrians. They recently
moved 30 "heavy weapons" to the
area,
I which are now aimed in the
general direction of the Beirut
airport.
--continued
1
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eli- occupted?
Territory ,
Amman
620375 8-76
BOUNDARY REPRESENTATION IS 34
NOT NECESSARILY AUTHORITATIVE
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Arab League efforts to
arrange a local cease-
fire in the Mount Leb-
anon area received a
major setback yesterday
from Palestinian leader
Salah Khalah, who an-
nounced that the Pales-
tinians would not accept
a truce agreement that
is not part of an over-
all settlement.
*
EGYPT-LIBYA: Egyptian
preparations continue
for possible military
action against Libya.
The Palestinians apparently have
decided they cannot afford to
jeopardize their positions in
Christian territory and thereby
drastically reduce their bargain-
ing power in future negotiations.
They also probably suspect--with
some justification--that Camille
Shamun's Christian forces would
not adhere to the cease-fire agree-
ment.
*
*
Egyptian TU-16 medium bombers are
conducting tests using "runway
bombs,"
apparently to check the feasibil-
ity of using these aircraft to
neutralize enemy airfields.
Some 40 to 50 jeeps and trucks that
were seen loaded on rail flatcars
south of Alexandria yesterday morn-
ing had departed by midday, presum-
ably for the Libyan border.
The Egyptian marine infantry brig-
ade in the border area was placed
on full alert yesterday and was to
assume a defensive posture
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do not know if this action has
been taken as a precaution during
Libya's celebration of its revolu-
tion today or whether it is con-
nected with Egypt's own military
activity near the border.
1
2
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*
MOZAMBIQUE-RHODESIA:
Mozambican President
Machel unexpectedly has
called a meeting of the
leaders of the feuding
Rhodesian nationalist
factions. The hurried
nature of the gathering
strongly suggests that
the session is keyed
to the meeting this
weekend of Secretary
Kissinger and South Af-
rican Prime Minister
Vors ter.
*
*
The "third force" is an or-
ganization that Tanzanian President
Nyerere and Machel are promoting
as an alternative to the present
squabbling Rhodesian African na-
tionalist groups. Machel also
wanted Joshua Nkomo to attend, but
the latter is in the Middle East
and will be represented by a sub-50X1
ordinate.
Both the "third force" leaders--
who will be attending such a high-
level meeting for the first time--
and Muzorewa, who has been barred
from the guerrilla camps, report-
edly are eager to use the session
with Machel to strengthen the po-
sitions of their own factions.
--continued
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
KOREA: North Korea
continues to warn that
the threat of a US-
provoked war on the
peninsula is increas-
ing--a Zine that was
prominent for months
before the recent Pan-
munjom incidents.
Machel has leverage over the na-
tionalist politicians because he
controls their access to the guer-
rilla camps in Mozambique.
A North Korean broadcast on August
29, for example, pointed to re-
ports that the nuclear-powered
submarine Pollack is in the Sea of
Japan as further evidence of US
preparations to "light the blast-
ing fuse of war."
North Korean authorities have also
ordered a selected reduction in
nonessential contacts with foreign-
ers. This move is probably part of
a general effort by Pyongyang to
build an air of crisis around the
Korean issue in preparation for
this fall's UN General Assembly
session. There is no evidence
that this reflects serious war
preparations.
At the meeting of the Military
Armistice Commission yesterday,
North Korea presented details of
its plan for the separation of
military personnel of both sides
at Panmunjom, including the re-
moval of North Korean guard posts
from the UN side of the joint
security area.
Given the considerable detail in
Pyongyang's proposal and the busi-
nesslike approach of the North
Korean representatives, it appears
that North Korea now is interested
in concluding an early agreement.
Additional meetings to discuss
specific arrangements were to be-
gin early this morning.
* * *
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR: The US embassy
in Moscow believes that
the appearance of So-
viet correspondent Vik-
tor Louis' byline on
the London Evening
News story concerning
Premier Kosygin's re-
ported swimming acci-
dent indicates that
leadership changes are
in the offing.
We think that the em-
bassy may be relying
too much on the sig-
nificance of Viktor
Louis' byline.
In the embassy's view, given Louis'
history as a transmitter of author-
itative leaks, the story should be
read as a signal that Kosygin's
status may change in the not-too-
distant future, whether or not he
is actually ill. Since the 1976-
1980 five-year plan should be pre-
sented by the Premier to the Su-
preme Soviet this fall, the embassy
believes that this "news story"
signal may be intended to prepare
the West for another face in the
premiership at that time.
Change of status for a leader of
Kosygin's rank, responsibilities,
and political stature will obvi-
ously necessitate serious "bumping"
among the current leaders and their
clients below. In the embassy's
view, the current stand-pat lead-
ership will wish to limit to the
extent possible the effects of
such a change, but none of the pos-
sible contenders to replace Kosygin
has clear and unchallenged creden-
tials for the job, and the choice
will not be an easy one. Any such
shift would be read as a signal
that the changing of the guard was
at last under way, bringing unwel-
come frictions within the Kremlin.
Louis himself continues to disavow
authorship and yesterday told West-
ern newsmen that he had no informa-
tion on the reported swimming acci-
dent. Even assuming that he is
indeed the source of the story, his
past reporting record has been mixed.
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
We expect the five-year plan to
be presented to the Supreme Soviet
in October. That session will
probably be preceded by a meeting
of the party's Central Committee--
the forum in which leadership
changes at this level must be an-
nounced. If Kosygin does go--
either to honorable retirement or
to President Podgorny's less de-
manding post--it will mean a break
in the circle of "seniors" in the
Politburo who have been the guar-
antors of continuity and stability,
and would, as the embassy points
out, lead to a sense of fluidity
in the leadership and to jockeying
for position among the survivors.
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Turkish research
ship Sismik I was sched-
uled to leave Izmir
last night on its fourth
mission, according to a
broadcast yesterday by
the Turkish government-
operated communications
network.
Kenya
/the So-
viets probably will be
able to diagnose and
correct the atmospheric
conditioning problem on
the Salyut 5 space sta-
tion.
NOTES
The government has not announced
the exact area and duration of
this mission, as it has done at
least one day prior to each of the
last three missions. This sug-
gests that the ship may be under-
going a shakedown cruise before
beginning exploration again. The ,
ship has been in Izmir during the
past week for maintenance and pos-
sibly installation of new equip-
ment.
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*
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*
*
We expect another crew will be
sent to the space station within
several months. The two Salyut 5
cosmonauts returned to Earth pre-
maturely on August 24
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1Salyut 5
seems to be fully operational and
probably has supplies for an addi-
tional 40 to 70 days of manned
flight. More supplies could be
sent up with the new crew in a
Soyuz spacecraft.
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Portuguese govern-
ment reportedly is plan-
ning to approach the US
embassy in Lisbon within
the next three weeks to
discuss reopening nego-
tiations on the US base
at Lajes in the Azores.
Mexico's release yes-
terday of the peso from
its fixed exchange rate
with the US dollar will
result in a devaluation
that Mexican officials
reportedly hope can be
held to around 20 per-
cent.
In the meantime, even though un-
manned, Salyut 5 is likely to con-
tinue some photographic activity,
and it may have the capability to
deorbit film capsules automatically.
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Possibly in an effort to help
smooth the way, Soares appears to
be taking a less dogmatic stand on
the use of the Azores for the re-
supply of Israel in a renewed Mid-
dle East conflict.
A spokesman for the Prime Minister
said on Monday that the government
would respond to new requests for
the use of the base on a case-by-
case basis.
* * *
Monetary controls and export and
excess profits taxes will be em-
ployed to prevent speculation, but
no exchange controls will be in-
troduced. International banking
sources in Mexico City have said
the peso will probably stabilize
at about 20 to the dollar, down
from the present 12.5.
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The peso has come under growing
pressure recently as inflation in
Mexico has continued to outpace
that in the US. This has resulted
in an overvaluation of the peso by
as much as 40 percent to 60 per-
cent.
Capital flight, the recent increase
of which provoked the float at this
time, will be reduced if the gov-
ernment institutes the necessary
fiscal and monetary policies to
complement the devaluation. Pres-
ident Echeverria is expected to
elaborate on such reforms later
today in his State of the Republic
address.
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Top Secret
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